Critz vs. Burns for PA-12

[J. J.]

Murtha's widow endorsed his aide, Mark Critz.

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

Murtha's widow endorsed his aide, Mark Critz.

That will help, since Singel and Hafer have excellent name recognition.

[J. J.]

Murtha's widow endorsed his aide, Mark Critz.

That will help, since Singel and Hafer have excellent name recognition.

Singel hasn't run in 16 years.  Hafer, 10 years.  Hafer was not particularly popular in what is the 12th District.

Critz, unknown to the public, but known to the party leadership, could be the choice.  Remember, there is no primary.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Singel is out:

http://www.pa2010.com/2010/02/breaking-news-singel-drops-out-of-12th-district-race/

Love those brief campaigns.

[J. J.]

Prediction:  Russell vs. Critz.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Russell 53%
Critz 45%

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Russell 53%
Critz 45%

Seriously, you think William "I (heart) direct mail fundraising, even though 90% of the money it generates goes to the company that does it" Russell is going to win?

[J. J.]

Russell 53%
Critz 45%

Seriously, you think William "I (heart) direct mail fundraising, even though 90% of the money it generates goes to the company that does it" Russell is going to win?

His name recognition is probably better.

[Rowan]

The party chairs aren't going to pick Russell. Burns will be the nominee.

[J. J.]

The party chairs aren't going to pick Russell. Burns will be the nominee.

The party chair's don't pick the Republican nominee; there is a conference of delegates.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Dems picked Critz over Hafer and the other guy:

http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/eyeon2010/2010/03/local-dems-pick-critz-as-their.html

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[J. J.]

Dems picked Critz over Hafer and the other guy:

http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/eyeon2010/2010/03/local-dems-pick-critz-as-their.html

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Actually, Critz won a, "non-binding straw vote by Democratic committee members."

http://www.pittsburghpost-gazette.com/pg/10065/1040853-100.stm

It is the Democratic State Committee that actually will choose the candidate, though the vote helps Critz. 

If you read the article, you can see how badly the local D's are divided.  One county boycotted this meeting and held its own.

Still predicting an R pickup.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

It's Critz for reals this time:

http://www.politicspa.com/breaking-news-executive-committee-picks-critz/7652/

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[Lunar]

I have mixed feelings about this.

This man will clearly continue Murtha's pork tradition, but he won't have Murtha's influence and seems like a pro.

[J. J.]

It's Critz for reals this time:

http://www.politicspa.com/breaking-news-executive-committee-picks-critz/7652/

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Expected, but not the strongest candidate that could have been picked.

[MArepublican]

http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2010/03/its_critz_v_bur.php

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2010/03/its_critz_v_bur.php

They have learned nothing and forgotten everyone.

[J. J.]

Surprising decision.  The vote count was good for Burns.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Some new polling outfit says it's 39-35 for Critz:

http://weaskamerica.com/?p=234

[Sam Spade]

Never heard of them - caveat emptor.

[cinyc]

I've never heard of them, either.  And I generally don't trust pollsters who state their results to the hundredth of a percentage.  That's false precision.  The more reputable pollsters usually don't do that.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Susquehanna (R) says 36-31 Critz:

http://grassrootspa.com/blogcore/pdf/SusquehannaCD12.pdf

[cinyc]

Susquehanna (R) says 36-31 Critz:

http://grassrootspa.com/blogcore/pdf/SusquehannaCD12.pdf

I've at least heard of Susquehanna. And they're not trying to give results to the nearest hundredth.  I wouldn't wager anything on their polling, though.

Undecideds are high in both polls.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Looks like they underpolled youngs by quite a bit.

[cinyc]

Looks like they underpolled youngs by quite a bit.

4% of 18-29s seems low, but are there really many "youngs" left in Johnstown and its Gerrymandered environs?  PA has the second highest percentage of seniors in the country and South Central/West PA is probably older than the rest of the state.

The "youngs" didn't show up in Obama-like proportions for the 2009 New Jersey and Virginia elections and (though there was no exit poll) probably the Massachusetts special election, given the turnout in college and younger towns.