Critz vs. Burns for PA-12

[J. J.]

GOP pickup.

I'm just wondering if there will be a special election.

On of Murtha's sons was convicted of armed robbery in the mid-80's.

My guess would be John Wozniak, a state senator, for the D's.  Possibly a state rep, Wojnaroski

There are numerous D and R candidates

[J. J.]

The winner of this district in 2010 would likely be sent to square off against which incumbent in 2012?  I guess he might get to choose.

It depends.  A Republican might get to keep the seat in 2012; a Democrat will probably find his district going into one of the Pittsburgh districts.

Westmoreland county has been getting increasingly Republican.  They had their first lower row officer victory in 50 years last fall.

[J. J.]

Interesting fact:

The winner of this special election will replace a dead guy who won a special election to replace a dead guy who won a special election to replace a dead guy.

(I paid my respects to Murtha in a different thread.)

I'm not too sure that they will call a special election.  I think that it might be tied to the primary, and it's possible that the winner might not be nominated.

[J. J.]

Interesting fact:

The winner of this special election will replace a dead guy who won a special election to replace a dead guy who won a special election to replace a dead guy.

(I paid my respects to Murtha in a different thread.)

Yeah I'd guess that they would just hold the election on normal time in this sort of situation

I'm not sure.  The primary should be more than 60 days away (late April) and they have held elections in conjunction with them.  The thing is, the party leaders pick the nominee (under a different procedure for both parties).

They might decide to let the seat open until the fall.

And, the voters will get to have a choice in the primary over who the nominee will be, in the general.

[J. J.]

Who would get to choose?  I can't imagine the Democrats want to have any election held immediately.

I think the Governor, Fast Eddie, does.

They may not.  The Republican nomination process is slightly more democratic (ironically) and more open; I think the Democrats use the county chairman (possibly with a weighted vote).  It would look a Democratic smoked filled room, as opposed to a democratic drama for the GOP.

The GOP state chair is from Johnstown.

[J. J.]

I think the Governor calls it, and there will be a primary for the seat in the general election.

I do not believe there will be a primary for the special election.

[J. J.]

Rendell signalling that there will be a May special election, according to CQ

It could be held at the same time as the primary.

[J. J.]

Rendell signalling that there will be a May special election, according to CQ

That's a little soon to be openly speculating on such things in public, surely?

In public, yes.  In private, you better believe this has been discusses since about 1:15 PM this afternoon.

[J. J.]

GOP pickup.

I'm just wondering if there will be a special election.

On of Murtha's sons was convicted of armed robbery in the mid-80's.

My guess would be John Wozniak, a state senator, for the D's.  Possibly a state rep, Wojnaroski

There are numerous D and R candidates

You are cocky.  And I hope the rest of your party shares that.  Hopefully for us former LT. Gov. Mark Singel runs for the seat.  He would likely beat carpetbagger extremist Bill Russell.

What's "cocky" about it?  I've been saying that Murtha would have a problem in 2010. 

Singel has been out of the area for, oh, for nearly as long as I have.   His major financial patron died in 2001.  His old state senate district only includes a fraction of the current 12th District.

[J. J.]

The Dems can't win an R+1 district in their current state... GOP pickup.

PVI is as misleading here as it is in California.

For PA-12, it's VERY misleading.  Most Dems would do better generically plus dare I say the race issue.  PA-12 is a northern extension of West Virginia in that it's very Democratic, but not in Presidential elections.  I would not be too cocky if I were the GOP and Murtha had a lot of skeletons in his closet on his own count.

Actually, I was looking at Westmoreland County.  For the first time in 50 years, one of those non-minority row officers was picked up by the GOP; I think it was clerk of courts, a minor post.  But that the Republicans could capture such a minor post, where there are no issues, shows a marked change in voter attitude.


Two of the overlapping State Senate districts are Republican.  I use to live there and this was supposedly impossible; it was impossible 20 years ago.

It is an area of GOP ascendancy, or perhaps WV without Byrd.

[J. J.]

Actually, I was looking at Westmoreland County.  For the first time in 50 years, one of those non-minority row officers was picked up by the GOP; I think it was clerk of courts, a minor post.  But that the Republicans could capture such a minor post, where there are no issues, shows a marked change in voter attitude.

That may explain why in 2002, the state legislature moved the bulk of Westmoreland County into the 18th district to make that district safe for Tim Murphy. Westmoreland voted 57% for McCain and 56% for George W. Bush. What does that make its PVI, if the PVI for PA-12 is R+1?

You won't get much argument that the Pittsburgh suburbs have become significantly Republican. The question is, how much salience does that have for PA-12, which is not a suburban district?

As I pointed out, those two State Senate districts, which are multi-county, are represented by Republicans.  Both the 41st and 39th include swaths of the 12th.  Neither was GOP ten years ago.

[J. J.]

BTW: Both Singel, and Wozniak are being mentioned in the press, Wozniak more so.

http://www.cbsnews.com/blogs/2010/02/09/politics/politicalhotsheet/entry6190866.shtml

The election is set for May 18.

[J. J.]

Barbara Hafer is running as a Democrat.

http://www.pa2010.com/2010/02/exclusive-hafer-running-to-succeed-murtha/

Probably too liberal for the 12th; Johnstown is Peg Lusik's home turf.

I think Hafer lives out of the district, which isn't illegal, but won't help.

I'd also wonder if she would win the Democratic nomination.

[J. J.]

I can't think of a better way to make this a cakewalk.

Russell (R) 60%
Hafer (D) 38%

Hafer is one of the weaker candidates for the D's.  I really wonder if she could get the nomination.

[J. J.]

PA Dems certainly have an affinity for party switchers.

I don't take this pick-up opportunity for granted, but I think a Rep can certainly win.

There's a reason that Obama performed 9% worse than Murtha.  He hates the coal industry and wants to bankrupt it.

Plaster that all over the district, and it wont hurt.  Plus, the Reps already had a very credible candidate in Bill Russell.

Ask Gene Atkinson about the "affinity" Pennsylvanians have for party switchers. 

[J. J.]

That linked article lists Hafer as an Indiana (city of, in PA) resident which should place her within the district.

She was elected from Allegheny County.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

She actually defeated Hafer in Cambria (and possibly all the counties in the district) in a primary in 1990.

[J. J.]

Singel's in.

[J. J.]

This district is going to get chopped up beyond recognition in 2011 anyway.  Not much incentive for anyone to run.

A Republican might be given a GOP district.

They could shift the 5th and 9th Districts to the east a bit.

Singel's money is a problem, and I'd bet Hafer isn't sitting on a war chest either.  Wozniak is probably the better candidate.

[J. J.]

Democrats will hold the seat. Why? because they have top tier candidates like Marc Singel.

He hasn't been top tier since 1994. Hey, maybe the GOP can nominate Dick Thornburgh, or me. 

[J. J.]

Ed Cernic, Jr., D, the Cambria County controller is in.

[J. J.]

Murtha's local aide is also in.

In terms of the nomination, unless they changed the rules in the last two years, conferee's hold a conference and elect a GOP nominee.  The county party chairs, possibly with a weighted vote, chose the D nominee.

I think Gramps can tell you that that I am "passingly familiar" with GOP process.

[J. J.]

Murtha's widow endorsed his aide, Mark Critz.

[J. J.]

Murtha's widow endorsed his aide, Mark Critz.

That will help, since Singel and Hafer have excellent name recognition.

Singel hasn't run in 16 years.  Hafer, 10 years.  Hafer was not particularly popular in what is the 12th District.

Critz, unknown to the public, but known to the party leadership, could be the choice.  Remember, there is no primary.

[J. J.]

Prediction:  Russell vs. Critz.

[J. J.]

Russell 53%
Critz 45%

Seriously, you think William "I (heart) direct mail fundraising, even though 90% of the money it generates goes to the company that does it" Russell is going to win?

His name recognition is probably better.