Critz vs. Burns for PA-12 (user search)
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  Critz vs. Burns for PA-12 (search mode)
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Author Topic: Critz vs. Burns for PA-12  (Read 32039 times)
Lunar
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« on: February 08, 2010, 02:56:52 PM »
« edited: March 11, 2010, 11:35:07 PM by Lunar »


McCain won the district with about 1,000 votes.
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Lunar
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« Reply #1 on: February 08, 2010, 03:00:13 PM »
Quote from: Lewis Trondheim the Amazing Bouncing Ferret on February 08, 2010, 02:59:38 PM
Why bother? That district will not exist in any recognizable form in 2012.

I don't see how it's recognizable now.  But somebody's still going to run for the seat and the GOP should be favored to pick this up, no?

We'll need to wait a few weeks for the candidates to emerge.  You never know if some son or grandson in the Murtha clan is going to come out of the woodwork or whatevsky.

The Democrats also lost a solid-Democratic vote in the House.
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Lunar
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« Reply #2 on: February 08, 2010, 03:10:43 PM »
The winner of this district in 2010 would likely be sent to square off against which incumbent in 2012?  I guess he might get to choose.
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Lunar
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« Reply #3 on: February 08, 2010, 03:52:07 PM »
Quote from: Joebot on February 08, 2010, 03:38:57 PM
Interesting fact:

The winner of this special election will replace a dead guy who won a special election to replace a dead guy who won a special election to replace a dead guy.

(I paid my respects to Murtha in a different thread.)

Yeah I'd guess that they would just hold the election on normal time in this sort of situation
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Lunar
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« Reply #4 on: February 08, 2010, 04:01:52 PM »
Who would get to choose?  I can't imagine the Democrats want to have any election held immediately.
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Lunar
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« Reply #5 on: February 08, 2010, 10:09:13 PM »
How can anyone who's district looks like an anorexic crawfish care about carpetbagging?
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Lunar
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« Reply #6 on: February 19, 2010, 06:45:33 PM »
I predict a Democratic hold.  Why?  The Sestak-Specter primary is the same day as election day, meaning high Democratic turnout.
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Lunar
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« Reply #7 on: February 19, 2010, 06:57:15 PM »
Quote from: Sam Spade on February 19, 2010, 06:51:36 PM
Quote from: RowanBrandon on February 19, 2010, 06:49:32 PM
Quote from: Lunar on February 19, 2010, 06:45:33 PM
I predict a Democratic hold.  Why?  The Sestak-Specter primary is the same day as election day, meaning high Democratic turnout.

Are there anything but Democrats here in this part of the world, anyway?

Yeah, but the ones that are really Republican vaguely apathetic Toomey-backerss won't turn out.
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Lunar
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« Reply #8 on: March 09, 2010, 12:21:35 AM »
I have mixed feelings about this.

This man will clearly continue Murtha's pork tradition, but he won't have Murtha's influence and seems like a pro.
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Lunar
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« Reply #9 on: March 18, 2010, 09:08:13 PM »

What kind of over-18 youth would live in PA-12?
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Lunar
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« Reply #10 on: March 20, 2010, 03:11:35 AM »
Quote from: Infernal Secretary on March 19, 2010, 10:58:08 AM
Quote from: Sam Spade on March 19, 2010, 10:55:45 AM
Quote from: Infernal Secretary on March 19, 2010, 10:52:01 AM
Quote from: we're shaking through these days of suffering on March 18, 2010, 09:42:09 PM
College dropouts/recent grads who moved back in with their parents, considering how common that is today.

I suspect that most people who grow up in the district don't ever go to university. Which hints at the answer to Lunar's question.

Poors?

Yeah. Especially the sort that don't have jobs but don't show up on unemployment statistics. Which also means that they mostly won't be voting either.

Which means they won't show up as likely voters on a lot of polling operations with tight screens...which means that maybe they weren't possibly undersampled after all...I mean, the district is the most horribly gerrymandered district for non-racial reasons in the country, I imagine a lot of people who technically grew up there live just outside the district...
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Lunar
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« Reply #11 on: May 12, 2010, 07:02:57 PM »
I'd be willing to bet on Critz for this one if someone will give me even money.

The #1 variable favoring Critz is that Democratic turnout with be much more excited over the Sestak/Specter primary, while Toomey has no excitement behind him in the primary itself. 

The more heated things get between Sestak and Specter, as long as it doesn't depress turnout, the more Critz is smiling.
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Lunar
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« Reply #12 on: May 12, 2010, 08:18:45 PM »
Quote from: Sam Spade on May 12, 2010, 08:17:03 PM
Don't really know what to say on this race.  Moving it to Lean R originally was stupid, one of the dumbest things I've done all year - clearly should be in toss-up.

Again, timing here is everything.  If the race were held tomorrow, it'd be lean R.  Since it's next Tuesday, it's a tossup.

Critz was obviously a very intelligent choice for local Democrats, who is well tapped to Murtha's winning message.
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Lunar
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« Reply #13 on: May 18, 2010, 10:15:51 PM »
It's not nearly as exciting to catch 'm in those anymore.

I'm glad I knew to reverse my prediction from Specter to Sestak as soon as he agreed with me though.
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Lunar
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« Reply #14 on: May 19, 2010, 10:46:20 AM »
Quote from: Badger on May 19, 2010, 08:21:20 AM
Quote from: RowanBrandon on February 19, 2010, 06:49:32 PM
Quote from: Lunar on February 19, 2010, 06:45:33 PM
I predict a Democratic hold.  Why?  The Sestak-Specter primary is the same day as election day, meaning high Democratic turnout.

Kudos to Lunar and Brandon. IMHO that alone doesn't explain Critz's winning by a full 9 points, but was undoubtedly a substantial part of it.

Good prognostication 3 months beforehand!

Obviously Critz was helped somewhat by running a fantastic campaign.
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Lunar
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« Reply #15 on: May 19, 2010, 10:50:59 AM »
Quote from: Grumpy Gramps on May 19, 2010, 10:47:26 AM
Quote from: Lunar on May 19, 2010, 10:46:20 AM
Obviously Critz was helped somewhat by running a fantastic campaign.

Lying is fantastic?

The tax thing?  Yeah that's a lie.  ("So and so wants to INSTITUTE A NATIONAL SALES TAX" [and remove the income tax])


But he had an effective messaging of opposing health care, being pro-life and pro-gun, but without antagonizing his union supporters etc.
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