Critz vs. Burns for PA-12

[Brittain33]

Honestly, why would a top-tier Democrat even want to run for the seat?  Pennsylvania is losing seats in 2012, and if a Democrat wins this, they're guaranteed to be redistricted into oblivion.

Why would a Republican run for it in that case, though? Even if the Republicans have total control of the redistricting process, the district is going to be mangled or eliminated based on its position between Shuster and Murphy. There's nowhere for the district to go that helps an incumbent of either party.

[Brittain33]

The Dems can't win an R+1 district in their current state... GOP pickup.

PVI is as misleading here as it is in California.

[Brittain33]

Though recent trends in VA and MA recently have shown that working-class voters similar to those in PA-12 are moving away from the Democrats in the recent climate.

I don't think that's what happened in MA. The big shift was among middle-class people (to be specific, not upper middle-class people) switching from D to R and then minority communities having much lower voting participation. There isn't much of a working class in either VA or MA that resembles PA-12. So far it looks like a suburban swing. Ditto for NJ, while we're at it.

PA-12 moved away from the Democrats in 2008 and Obama still won it narrowly. Remember, this was a district that was drawn in part to create a safe Republican district in PA-18 and to combine the bases of two Democratic congressmen. We won't know how the race will go until candidates step up, but I think the district is not as much lean R as some would like to believe.

[Brittain33]

Actually, I was looking at Westmoreland County.  For the first time in 50 years, one of those non-minority row officers was picked up by the GOP; I think it was clerk of courts, a minor post.  But that the Republicans could capture such a minor post, where there are no issues, shows a marked change in voter attitude.

That may explain why in 2002, the state legislature moved the bulk of Westmoreland County into the 18th district to make that district safe for Tim Murphy. Westmoreland voted 57% for McCain and 56% for George W. Bush. What does that make its PVI, if the PVI for PA-12 is R+1?

You won't get much argument that the Pittsburgh suburbs have become significantly Republican. The question is, how much salience does that have for PA-12, which is not a suburban district?

[Brittain33]

As I pointed out, those two State Senate districts, which are multi-county, are represented by Republicans.  Both the 41st and 39th include swaths of the 12th.  Neither was GOP ten years ago.

Look at the 39th's location again.

[Brittain33]

Barbara Hafer is running as a Democrat.

http://www.pa2010.com/2010/02/exclusive-hafer-running-to-succeed-murtha/

[Brittain33]

He hasn't been top tier since 1994. Hey, maybe the GOP can nominate Dick Thornburgh, or me. 

Given that nobody has moved to that part of the state since the 1950s, or possibly the 1930s, it could be worse.

[Brittain33]

While I'm sure this district probably ranks toward the bottom of the country for 18-29 population, there have been a number of Senate polls this year with extremely low participation rates for this age group out of line with reality. 4% is not realistic and says more about polling than demographics. That said, I doubt it makes much of a difference.

The Census claims 12.7% for 20-29 with an additional implied 3.5% for 18-19, for a total of 16.2%. Voting participation in a special election will be lower, even disproportionately lower than it is in a general election, but not that much. 

[Brittain33]

So, I guess it is about 8% less DEM than PA as a whole now.

This district may well be trending away from Democrats, but I doubt that any shift since 2008 has happened relative to the state as a whole, given that Toomey is leading in Senate polls.

[Brittain33]

The Republicans are touting a poll that has Critz up by 1, so I'm curious to see what PPP's numbers will look like:

That's great news, given that none of them comes into the race with any recognition.

[Brittain33]

I'm getting a bad "Coakley +15" feeling from the Susquehanna poll.

[Brittain33]

I almost forgot my absolute favorite ad; the one charging that Tim Burns' company sent jobs overseas.  It was a total fabrication.  It absolutely did not happen.  But it played well in the 14th where class warfare is at it's height and people were deeply concerned that Tim Burns was a millionaire.  Nevermind that he grew up poor and was totally self-made.

If I were a Republican, I'd probably be angriest at the repeated Democratic attack of the last several years that "X voted to cut taxes on companies that sent jobs overseas." It's deadly but very misleading.