Critz vs. Burns for PA-12

[Badger]

Barbara Hafer is running as a Democrat.

http://www.pa2010.com/2010/02/exclusive-hafer-running-to-succeed-murtha/

Probably too liberal for the 12th; Johnstown is Peg Lusik's home turf.

I think Hafer lives out of the district, which isn't illegal, but won't help.

I'd also wonder if she would win the Democratic nomination.

That linked article lists Hafer as an Indiana (city of, in PA) resident which should place her within the district.

Peg Lusik won how many elections again? Even at the local level?

While I admit the GOP very well might pick up this seat, proclaiming it as a solid--or even likely) pickup at this point is optimistic. Russell, IMHO, just doesn't seem like the strongest GOP candidate compared to some of the state reps and senators in the district (though most of them represent only the Westmoreland County sliver). A local blue collarish Dem should run far ahead of Obama (or even Kerry). Hell, Murtha carried his own baggage and, while the seat is clearly far more competitive without him running (RIP), a state rep or senator won't have his ethics issues and gaffes to contend with.

As much as I would love to see Hafer elected (the one Republican I consistently voted for growing up in Allegheny County), I'm not sure she's the best Democratic candidate for this race.

[Badger]

How is this election going to play out with party candidates anyway? That is, will all candidates run in some sort of jungle primary, or will the various party committees choose their respective nominees? The latter, IIRC, is how PA election law works, but I haven't been registered there for almost a decade and a half.

[Badger]

I predict a Democratic hold.  Why?  The Sestak-Specter primary is the same day as election day, meaning high Democratic turnout.

Kudos to Lunar and Brandon. IMHO that alone doesn't explain Critz's winning by a full 9 points, but was undoubtedly a substantial part of it.

Good prognostication 3 months beforehand!