Critz vs. Burns for PA-12

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Rendell signalling that there will be a May special election, according to CQ

That's a little soon to be openly speculating on such things in public, surely?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Areas like this are very insular. National trends and the 2008 Presidential election or not we'll have to see who the candidates are before we can start to think about calling this one.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If you insult your constituents...

...they re-elect you anyway.

Keywords: PA, Elections, House, Coal, Chutzpah

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If you insult your constituents...

...they re-elect you anyway.

Keywords: PA, Elections, House, Coal, Chutzpah

Just to make something clear; the map shows percentage lead (the key is somewhere in the gallery, but the meaning is easy enough to work out anyways). The map is a pretty strong indication that while Murtha had a solid personal vote in the parts of the district he'd represented for decades, this wasn't true of the areas added in 2002. Not that that's surprising or anything.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The median age in this district is 42, fwiw.

Anyway, about a fifth of the potential electorate in PA-12 is under the age of 35. But this is the sort of area where young people do not vote.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

College dropouts/recent grads who moved back in with their parents, considering how common that is today.

I suspect that most people who grow up in the district don't ever go to university. Which hints at the answer to Lunar's question.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

College dropouts/recent grads who moved back in with their parents, considering how common that is today.

I suspect that most people who grow up in the district don't ever go to university. Which hints at the answer to Lunar's question.

Poors?

Yeah. Especially the sort that don't have jobs but don't show up on unemployment statistics. Which also means that they mostly won't be voting either.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

They do, but they don't move back.  I think that about 20% of my graduating class went to college, even if they didn't graduate; less than 10% live in the general area.

Yeah; that's the usual pattern with depressed areas. Key points being that a) less kids than normal go to uni and that b) those that do generally don't come back. Which is 'perfect' for young voters making up an unusually small share of people who actually vote.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The Dems were marginally favored here the second they picked the W PA D version of a good ole boy (Hafer would have lost. Probably quite badly). After that, the race never moved anywhere. The primary probably added a point or three. *shrugs*

Yeah, that sounds about right.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Areas like this are very insular. National trends and the 2008 Presidential election or not we'll have to see who the candidates are before we can start to think about calling this one.

It's nice to get something right for once.