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Author Topic: Opinion Research Associates Arkanasas tied at 48/48, was Bush +9  (Read 2037 times)
freedomburns
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« on: October 24, 2004, 07:51:00 am »
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http://www.arkansasnews.com/archive/2004/10/24/JohnBrummett/306414.html

Real poll - and all tied up
Sunday, Oct 24, 2004

By John Brummett

Maybe you remember that a couple of weeks ago I columnized on the poll of the Arkansas presidential race conducted by Opinion Research Associates in Little Rock for us at the Arkansas News Bureau.

President Bush was up by nine points.

Maybe you ought now to forget that.

We sent Opinion Research back into the field Monday through Wednesday evenings, making 500 calls to likely voters evenly split among the four congressional districts. This is the new report: The presidential race is tied in Arkansas, 48-48.


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afleitch
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« Reply #1 on: October 24, 2004, 07:58:31 am »
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My advice to 'Big Dog' Clinton: Great to have you back, help out Kerry in the swing states until Thursday, then park yourself in Arkansas till election day. Clinton knows Arkansas like the back of his hand, if the state is as close as I think it is, he can swing it for Kerry.
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freedomburns
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« Reply #2 on: October 24, 2004, 08:31:05 am »
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My advice to 'Big Dog' Clinton: Great to have you back, help out Kerry in the swing states until Thursday, then park yourself in Arkansas till election day. Clinton knows Arkansas like the back of his hand, if the state is as close as I think it is, he can swing it for Kerry.

I think that is an excellent strategy.  I think Clinton could swing this state.  They should stop wasting his talents in safe Pennsylvania.

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« Reply #3 on: October 24, 2004, 08:39:22 am »
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I won't comment until I know the answer to this little question:

How good are "Opinion Research Associates"?
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freedomburns
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« Reply #4 on: October 24, 2004, 08:44:07 am »
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I won't comment until I know the answer to this little question:

How good are "Opinion Research Associates"?

I am not familiar with them, but I think this new poll should be good news if they are at all respectable, because their last poll had Bush up nine points.  AR might be too close to call, and a push might swing it.


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« Reply #5 on: October 24, 2004, 08:49:55 am »
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"AR might be too close to call, and a push might swing it."

know any more funny jokes?

if you really believe that arkansas is tied, then you must believe kerry is only up a point in hawaii.  after all, a poll yesterday said so.
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« Reply #6 on: October 24, 2004, 08:54:49 am »
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you mean you don't believe that Kerry is only up one point in Hawaii??  Smiley
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freedomburns
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« Reply #7 on: October 24, 2004, 08:59:13 am »
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"AR might be too close to call, and a push might swing it."

know any more funny jokes?

if you really believe that arkansas is tied, then you must believe kerry is only up a point in hawaii.  after all, a poll yesterday said so.

I said "might".  I never said I believed that it was so.  I only allowed the possibility.

Oh, and I suppose that since you are proposing that they are equivalent that you can produce a previous poll from that Hawaii firm that showed Kerry up ten?  Hmm?  What’s that you say?  You have nothing to validate your analogy?  Well then please shut the hell up.  Thank you.

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« Reply #8 on: October 24, 2004, 09:07:39 am »
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"AR might be too close to call, and a push might swing it."

know any more funny jokes?

if you really believe that arkansas is tied, then you must believe kerry is only up a point in hawaii.  after all, a poll yesterday said so.

Like I said, I'd like to see if this firm is any good before I say anything
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« Reply #9 on: October 24, 2004, 09:14:21 am »
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"AR might be too close to call, and a push might swing it."

know any more funny jokes?

if you really believe that arkansas is tied, then you must believe kerry is only up a point in hawaii.  after all, a poll yesterday said so.



I said "might".  I never said I believed that it was so.  I only allowed the possibility.

Oh, and I suppose that since you are proposing that they are equivalent that you can produce a previous poll from that Hawaii firm that showed Kerry up ten?  Hmm?  What’s that you say?  You have nothing to validate your analogy?  Well then please shut the hell up.  Thank you.

freedomburns


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freedomburns
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« Reply #10 on: October 24, 2004, 09:20:48 am »
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Sorry, I haven't had my Sunday morning bong hit yet.  I'll be in a better mood shortly...

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« Reply #11 on: October 24, 2004, 09:27:51 am »
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Yeah, like HI - let's see some more polls back it up.

AR hasn't been on the swing states list since... I don't remember. I don't think it suddenly became a swing state overnight.

The Bush swing states are OH, FL, NH, CO, and NV. CO and NV aren't going anywhere, NH is back and forth (up one, down one, up three, down three - but is not as likely to be as big a factor), so it's OH and FL for Bush. That's it, that's why Kerry is spending all of his time there. AR is not close. Just my opinion. Like I don't think HI is close. 

And for Kerry, well, there are a lot of Gore states that are up in the air.
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« Reply #12 on: October 24, 2004, 07:20:53 pm »
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Read the news release.

Big flaw in this poll.

2 brownie points for first person to find it Smiley
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« Reply #13 on: October 24, 2004, 07:25:28 pm »
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The Congressional District thing? Is turnout unevenly distributed?
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« Reply #14 on: October 24, 2004, 07:29:09 pm »
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My advice to 'Big Dog' Clinton: Great to have you back, help out Kerry in the swing states until Thursday, then park yourself in Arkansas till election day. Clinton knows Arkansas like the back of his hand, if the state is as close as I think it is, he can swing it for Kerry.

I think that is an excellent strategy.  I think Clinton could swing this state.  They should stop wasting his talents in safe Pennsylvania.

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The Pennsylvania appearance will be broadcasted to other states, I assume.
But you are right: Clinton to Arkansas NOW!!!
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freedomburns
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« Reply #15 on: October 24, 2004, 07:36:55 pm »
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The Congressional District thing? Is turnout unevenly distributed?

Naw, he is talking about the real news release, not the op ed piece.  I am going over it to find the flaw he is speaking of.  (I gotta have some brownies to go with my bong hits.)

Here is the link to the news release that the Vorlonator is referring to:

http://www.arkansasnews.com/archive/2004/10/24/News/306451.html

or maybe this one:

http://www.arkansasnews.com/archive/2004/10/24/News/306446.html


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freedomburns
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« Reply #16 on: October 24, 2004, 07:39:16 pm »
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Here is the flaw:
"Fifty percent identified themselves as Democrats or independent leaning Democrat; 33 percent said they were Republican or independent leaning Republican."

On the other hand, there is also this information to consider in the equation:

"Other Arkansas polls have shown the race to be tightening.

A Zogby International poll by the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette on Oct. 14 showed Bush with 46.2 percent, and Kerry with 44.6 percent, a statistical tie.

A Survey USA poll on Oct. 17 showed Bush leading 51 percent to 46 percent, within the margin of error. "


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« Reply #17 on: October 24, 2004, 07:41:00 pm »
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Given that the poll has Bush down in the 3rd congressional district......a district Bush beat Gore by in 2000 by 23 points, I'd say there's just a teeny tiny little flaw here.
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« Reply #18 on: October 24, 2004, 07:41:18 pm »
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Here is the flaw:
"Fifty percent identified themselves as Democrats or independent leaning Democrat; 33 percent said they were Republican or independent leaning Republican."
At first glance: OUCH!
At second thought - what's the registration breakup for Arkansas? I'd guess Dems still have a vast advantage in registration there.
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« Reply #19 on: October 24, 2004, 07:45:00 pm »
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Given that the poll has Bush down in the 3rd congressional district......a district Bush beat Gore by in 2000 by 23 points, I'd say there's just a teeny tiny little flaw here.

Give the man a cigar Smiley
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« Reply #20 on: October 24, 2004, 07:45:36 pm »
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Read the news release.

Big flaw in this poll.

2 brownie points for first person to find it Smiley

I more or less agree with your map.
The only reservation I have is that TX should be pink and GA should be red IMHO.
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« Reply #21 on: October 24, 2004, 07:48:26 pm »
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What?  No cash reward?
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« Reply #22 on: October 24, 2004, 07:52:04 pm »
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Read the news release.

Big flaw in this poll.

2 brownie points for first person to find it Smiley

I more or less agree with your map.
The only reservation I have is that TX should be pink and GA should be red IMHO.

I'm guessing you're refering to the latest Zogby Interactive polls...
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freedomburns
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« Reply #23 on: October 24, 2004, 08:13:40 pm »
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Vorlon's swirling map is a metaphor for what is happening to the country.  Look at the map.  You see it.  The country is leaning toward Bush.  More and more states fall into his camp - even Pennsylvania and New Mexico.  The country swirls down the toilet bowl as we plunge into another four years of a malodorous Bush Administration. 


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« Reply #24 on: October 24, 2004, 08:16:11 pm »
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Vorlon's swirling map is a metaphor for what is happening to the country.  Look at the map.  You see it.  The country is leaning toward Bush.  More and more states fall into his camp - even Pennsylvania and New Mexico.  The country swirls down the toilet bowl as we plunge into another four years of a malodorous Bush Administration. 


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ok ? Smiley
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