Opinion Research Associates Arkanasas tied at 48/48, was Bush +9

[freedomburns]

http://www.arkansasnews.com/archive/2004/10/24/JohnBrummett/306414.html

Real poll - and all tied up
Sunday, Oct 24, 2004

By John Brummett

Maybe you remember that a couple of weeks ago I columnized on the poll of the Arkansas presidential race conducted by Opinion Research Associates in Little Rock for us at the Arkansas News Bureau.

President Bush was up by nine points.

Maybe you ought now to forget that.

We sent Opinion Research back into the field Monday through Wednesday evenings, making 500 calls to likely voters evenly split among the four congressional districts. This is the new report: The presidential race is tied in Arkansas, 48-48.


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[freedomburns]

My advice to 'Big Dog' Clinton: Great to have you back, help out Kerry in the swing states until Thursday, then park yourself in Arkansas till election day. Clinton knows Arkansas like the back of his hand, if the state is as close as I think it is, he can swing it for Kerry.

I think that is an excellent strategy.  I think Clinton could swing this state.  They should stop wasting his talents in safe Pennsylvania.

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[freedomburns]

I won't comment until I know the answer to this little question:

How good are "Opinion Research Associates"?

I am not familiar with them, but I think this new poll should be good news if they are at all respectable, because their last poll had Bush up nine points.  AR might be too close to call, and a push might swing it.


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[freedomburns]

"AR might be too close to call, and a push might swing it."

know any more funny jokes?

if you really believe that arkansas is tied, then you must believe kerry is only up a point in hawaii.  after all, a poll yesterday said so.

I said "might".  I never said I believed that it was so.  I only allowed the possibility.

Oh, and I suppose that since you are proposing that they are equivalent that you can produce a previous poll from that Hawaii firm that showed Kerry up ten?  Hmm?  What’s that you say?  You have nothing to validate your analogy?  Well then please shut the hell up.  Thank you.

freedomburns

[freedomburns]

Sorry, I haven't had my Sunday morning bong hit yet.  I'll be in a better mood shortly...

[freedomburns]

The Congressional District thing? Is turnout unevenly distributed?

Naw, he is talking about the real news release, not the op ed piece.  I am going over it to find the flaw he is speaking of.  (I gotta have some brownies to go with my bong hits.)

Here is the link to the news release that the Vorlonator is referring to:

http://www.arkansasnews.com/archive/2004/10/24/News/306451.html

or maybe this one:

http://www.arkansasnews.com/archive/2004/10/24/News/306446.html


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[freedomburns]

Here is the flaw:
"Fifty percent identified themselves as Democrats or independent leaning Democrat; 33 percent said they were Republican or independent leaning Republican."

On the other hand, there is also this information to consider in the equation:

"Other Arkansas polls have shown the race to be tightening.

A Zogby International poll by the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette on Oct. 14 showed Bush with 46.2 percent, and Kerry with 44.6 percent, a statistical tie.

A Survey USA poll on Oct. 17 showed Bush leading 51 percent to 46 percent, within the margin of error. "


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[freedomburns]

Vorlon's swirling map is a metaphor for what is happening to the country.  Look at the map.  You see it.  The country is leaning toward Bush.  More and more states fall into his camp - even Pennsylvania and New Mexico.  The country swirls down the toilet bowl as we plunge into another four years of a malodorous Bush Administration. 


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