Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush 2008, with a twist

[Bo]

Hillary Clinton runs and narrowly defeats George W. Bush in 2004. Hillary does not implement a troop surge in Iraq and thus the situation in Iraq deteriorates between 2005 and 2008. Also, the economy begins slowing down in 2007 and goes into a recession in 2008. The financial crisis occurs in the summer of 2008. Unemployment is 7.8% on election day. The Republicans nominate Jeb Bush, who pledges to finish his brother's goals in Iraq and to revive the American economy from the Great Recession. In 2008, the Democrats renominate Hillary Clinton, who retains her old VP, Bob Graham, while Jeb Bush picks North Dakota Governor John Hoeven as his running mate in an effort to appeal to moderates without alienating conservatives. How would this election turn out? Discuss, with maps.

[Bo]

Clinton's approvals would be in the tank, probably around 35%, around the collapse time.

Seems about right.