What current member of the Senate is the most likely to become President?

[Bo]

Plenty of first-term senators run for president - Al Gore, Bob Kerrey, John Edwards - but aside from Obama, most don't win. Obama really was the exception, not a rule. Senators usually need to have at least completed one whole term and won reelection to be credible.

On paper, Gillibrand has a good chance. But honestly, her voice and demeanor, superficial though they may be, will be a HUGE hindrance. Unfortunately, she just doesn't seem - again, on a very superficial level - to have the stature to be a credible candidate for president. More like New York's Patty Murray than another Hillary Clinton.

I doubt Warner actually runs, despite the hype. He had a perfect shot in 2008 and passed. He'll be old news by 2016.

Jim Webb reportedly has presidential ambitions, but I think he's unlikely to run - or win - unless Democrats are really looking for someone electable in an otherwise unfavorable climate. So if Obama loses reelection, I could see him (he'd be 70 at the time) running in 2016. Although given that Virginia is a swing state, his reelection hopes will probably tie in with Obama's fate - if Obama loses reelection, Webb probably loses too.

I actually think the Democratic senator most likely to run for president in 2016 is Sheldon Whitehouse. And he'd actually have a pretty good shot - plenty of establishment support (albeit from the left side), generally good relations with the White House, well-liked by his colleagues, and likely to have support from the liberal base of the party.

I'm not sure Warner had a perfect shot in 2008--he was probably planning on running but then saw that Hillary would easily crush him. I think that he might have thought about 2016, but Obama's elections and Hillary's runner-up status might have given up any hope that he had.

[Хahar 🤔]

I hope Whitehouse doesn't run, just because of all the terrible puns that would result.

[HappyWarrior]

I would say Thune for the Republicans and Hagan for the Democrats.

[21st Century Independent]

DEMS
Evan Bayh before quitting
Jim Webb
Mark Warner


REPUBS
Scott Brown
John Thune

[ScottM]

I'd say Thune.

[Derek]

John Thune or Scott Brown as well. Former senators Rick Santorum and Bill Frist are the most likely former senators.

[perdedor]

Jim Webb comes to mind. I always thought that Jack Reed would make for a good Presidential candidate as well, I doubt he is interested though. As for Republicans, Thune by default.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Robert Byrd, he's third in the line of succession

[petedewolfe]

Whitehouse

[Bo]

Robert Byrd, he's third in the line of succession

I don't see anything happening to both Obama and Biden throughout the next three/seven years.

[Derek]

Robert Byrd lol

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

Robert Byrd, he's third in the line of succession

I don't see anything happening to both Obama and Biden throughout the next three/seven years.

That's because you are looking at your computer screen right now. How are you going to see Obama and Biden looking at Atlas Forum?

[Derek]

Here's my question, which senator would make the best president?  My answer is none other than John McCain.

[President Mitt]

Here's my question, which senator would make the best president?  My answer is none other than John McCain.

lololololololol

[Bull Moose Base]

Moderates like Mark Warner or Scott Brown who would do well in a general election would have almost zero chance in a primary for the same reasons.  While more polarizing candidates like Al Franken or John Thune would need a year very tilted toward their party or else to face the other one and have the field a little tilted toward their party or out-campaign/-luck their opponent.  Someone like Brown strikes me as more likely to win as an Independent but that rarely happens.

I'd say because of the likelihood of the glass ceiling breaking, Klobuchar and Gillibrand are the top 2.  I'd put Russ Feingold right behind them.

[RosettaStoned]

John Thune.

[Bo]

Moderates like Mark Warner or Scott Brown who would do well in a general election would have almost zero chance in a primary for the same reasons.  While more polarizing candidates like Al Franken or John Thune would need a year very tilted toward their party or else to face the other one and have the field a little tilted toward their party or out-campaign/-luck their opponent.  Someone like Brown strikes me as more likely to win as an Independent but that rarely happens.

I'd say because of the likelihood of the glass ceiling breaking, Klobuchar and Gillibrand are the top 2.  I'd put Russ Feingold right behind them.

Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton were mdoerates and they won their party's nominations. The same can be said about Ike, Nixon, and Ford.

[Bull Moose Base]

Moderates like Mark Warner or Scott Brown who would do well in a general election would have almost zero chance in a primary for the same reasons.  While more polarizing candidates like Al Franken or John Thune would need a year very tilted toward their party or else to face the other one and have the field a little tilted toward their party or out-campaign/-luck their opponent.  Someone like Brown strikes me as more likely to win as an Independent but that rarely happens.

I'd say because of the likelihood of the glass ceiling breaking, Klobuchar and Gillibrand are the top 2.  I'd put Russ Feingold right behind them.

Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton were mdoerates and they won their party's nominations. The same can be said about Ike, Nixon, and Ford.

Ford was an incumbent president, Nixon an incumbent VP, then former VP/nominee.  Status (but not senator status really) can trump ideology, though even that is much harder as control over nominee selection has migrated from party insiders to voters.  Ford, an incumbent president, nearly lost his primary.  In Clinton's case, his party swung moderate because they'd lost 3 in a row and were hungry for a winner.  Plus, he got great luck when liberals like Cuomo who could have beat him stayed out.  In Ike's case, it had been 5 losses in a row, plus his status.  Mark Warner's luck or Democratic Party (or age) in 2016 won't be Clinton's in 1992.  The one caveat is he could re-invent himself as a fiery populist like John Edwards did to the base's delight and blind-eye to his more conservative voting record.  So, yes, a made-over Warner could end up president.  Not that Edwards won of course.

It's slightly more possible the Republicans in 2016 will be desperate enough to look for a relatively more moderate nominee but I'd bet on social conservatives still being way too strong for a pro-choicer like Brown to break through.  Plus, his heat will be diminished by then.  And he may not even be in the senate anymore.  Though, hey, if Romney ends up nominee in 2012, what's to stop Brown in 2016 from also saying, "Holy cow!  I just discovered I want to be presid- er, I mean, I just discovered that life begins at conception."?

[sentinel]

Democratic senators most likely to be president: Kirsten Gillibrand or Kay Hagan

Republican senators most likely to be president: John Thune

I'm not even sure that Gillibrand would win her re-election, but she seems okay since she's from the district next to me.  

I know, but I was just listing who was in the Senate at the moment who might become president. If Gillibrand does win reelection, which is probably more likely than the reelection of alot of other senators at the moment, she might run for president in the future.(Most likely either in 2016 or 2020.)

But really, I think the most likely Democratic senator to one day become president hasn't even been elected to the Senate yet, since Obama wasn't elected to the Senate until 2004, and it only took 4 years in the Senate to get elected president.

Exactomundo:

Who is that??

I think...

Thune, Warner, Feingold (perhaps).

[Bo]

Democratic senators most likely to be president: Kirsten Gillibrand or Kay Hagan

Republican senators most likely to be president: John Thune

I'm not even sure that Gillibrand would win her re-election, but she seems okay since she's from the district next to me.  

I know, but I was just listing who was in the Senate at the moment who might become president. If Gillibrand does win reelection, which is probably more likely than the reelection of alot of other senators at the moment, she might run for president in the future.(Most likely either in 2016 or 2020.)

But really, I think the most likely Democratic senator to one day become president hasn't even been elected to the Senate yet, since Obama wasn't elected to the Senate until 2004, and it only took 4 years in the Senate to get elected president.

Exactomundo:

Who is that??

I think...

Thune, Warner, Feingold (perhaps).

That is Joe Sestak.

[Bull Moose Base]

Sestak-Specter primary is next month.  It'll probably be tough for Sestak to close the gap.  Even if he falls short, I thank him for pushing Specter to the Left for a while.

[HappyWarrior]

I'd probably say Kay Hagan, Tom Udall, Thune, or for some reason Burr springs to mind.

[Robespierre's Jaw]

Harry Reid.

[yougo1000]

Dick Durbin