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|-+  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  Election What-ifs?
| | |-+  Past Election What-ifs (US) (Moderator: Bacon King)
| | | |-+  TimeLine: No WaterGate
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Author Topic: TimeLine: No WaterGate  (Read 2003 times)
yougo1000
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« on: February 14, 2010, 02:20:20 pm »
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On June 17 1972 Richard Nixons staff never broke into water gate. In 1974 Nixon's approval rating was: Approve: 72% Disapprove: 15% Undecided:13%. On December 15th 1974 Gerald Ford announced he will run for President. 24 days later Ronald Reagan and Bob Dole challenged Ford.

In early March 1975 Jimmy Carter said he would seek the Democratic nomination. A month later Jerry Brown stated he will not seek the Democrat nomination for President. In December 1975 Ted Kennedy despite no expectations to do so said he will run.

Polling Jan 1st 1976: Ford:32% Reagan 50% Dole 18%
Democrats: Jimmy Carter 31% Ted Kennedy 69%.

Early primaries for the Democrats easily went to Kennedy but early February Carter picked up all states.

Republican: Reagan 61% Ford 39%
Democrat: Carter 40% Kennedy 60%.

By the time the Primaries were over polling was grim for the Democrats: Republicans 82% to Democrats 18%

Then Election day came the results were: Republican: 300, 52%
Democrats: 238 48%



On January 20th 1977 65 year old Reagan took office.
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Bo
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« Reply #1 on: February 14, 2010, 02:22:12 pm »
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I don't think Ford would have ran in 1976 if Watergate did not occur. Becoming President was never an ambition of Ford's.
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tb78
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« Reply #2 on: February 14, 2010, 02:47:19 pm »
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I don't think Ford would have ran in 1976 if Watergate did not occur. Becoming President was never an ambition of Ford's.

Agreed, Ford's ambition was to be speaker of the house. John Conally, or whoever Nixon would have choose for his VP would have ran for the Republicans
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GPORTER
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« Reply #3 on: February 14, 2010, 02:54:10 pm »
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Ford would not have run for President if Watergate had not happened. He said more than once that he wanted to be speaker of the house. After he saw the 1972 elections happen and the republicans still did not take the house, he said privately that he would retire after the 1976 elections.

Ford would not have had run for president in 1976 without watergate.
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yougo1000
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« Reply #4 on: February 15, 2010, 01:37:32 pm »
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President Reagan is immediately popular making peace during the first 5 months with 134 countries. But Congress had other plans, they immediately began proposing legislation that Reagan didn't feel good about. Than in early September Iraq declares war against Afghanistan. Reagan immediately begins establishing diplomatic relations with each other. On November 15th despite the peace treaties signed in early October. Iraq bombs Tehran, killing the entire government. Iran is plunged into anarchy and Iraq takes over.

In his state of the union address Reagan asked congress for a declaration of war against Iraq which many people wanted. Reagan's approval soared to 85%. But then the unexpected happened, when Iraq heard of possible war they immediately began increasing terrorist activities. In March of 1978 they attacked the Sears Tower destroying it. Congress then immediately passes a declaration of war against Iraq and soon after: England, France, Germany, USSR, and China were all attacking Iraq
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yougo1000
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« Reply #5 on: February 19, 2010, 07:52:16 pm »
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President Reagan launched operation: Mustaf against Iraq. 3,541 Iraq citizens are killed in the operation. Reagan says the operation is over when Iraq is over thrown. President Reagan in early December of 1978 announced he would run for reelection
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yougo1000
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« Reply #6 on: February 20, 2010, 05:00:19 pm »
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Early January Ted Kennedy announces he will not seek the nomination for president in 1980. But Carter and Brown say they will. January 1979 Democratic polling: Carter 42.6 Brown 57.4
GE polling: Carter vs. Reagan: Reagan 324 ev 61% popular vote. Carter 15 39% popular vote 199 ev undecided. By early March Reagan approvals were at 82% Than another poll was released for Democrats Carter 50% Brown 50%. Reagan addressed the nation on TV on march 16th 1979 and said "The dictatorship of Iraq was overthrown minutes ago operation Mustaf is over" the next day his approvals soared to 92% 7% and 1%.



Reagan than visited the Middle East for one month.
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yougo1000
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« Reply #7 on: April 18, 2010, 11:28:40 am »
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In early 1980 Ronald Reagan had no primary challengers. But for the Democrats Jimmy Carter vs. Jerry Brown vs. JFK Jr.

GE Reagan VS. Carter VS Anderson

Reagan\Bush 521 EV 68% PV
Carter\Kennedy 17 EV 12% PV
Anderson\Lucey 0 EV 20% PV

Democratic primary

JFK Jr 62%
Carter 15%
Brown 12%
Undecided: 11%
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justW353
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« Reply #8 on: April 18, 2010, 11:39:52 am »
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Besides JFK Jr. only being 20 in 1980...

YOU'RE A WHAT-IF BOARD GOD
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So a lack of knowledge means I'm not welcome here? I've always wondered why there's a lack of Republicans on this forum and now I'm beginning to see why.
Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #9 on: April 18, 2010, 02:49:31 pm »
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What a waste of bandwidth this thread is.
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Bob Findley: "You're a real dyed-in-the-wool son-of-a-bitch. Anyone ever told you that?"
Steve Everett: "Just close friends and family,"

Clint Eastwood's "True Crime", 1999.
yougo1000
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« Reply #10 on: April 20, 2010, 08:03:34 am »
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Ronald Reagan asked Congress to pass an amendment to lower the age to run for President to 18. By May it had passed both houses and was off to the states and thy passed by July. Kennedy was officially in the race. VP Ford had 7 foreign meetings to go to in July. In the conventions they selected the nominees:

Reagan\Bush
Kennedy\Mondale

Then election night came...
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Derek
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« Reply #11 on: April 23, 2010, 03:31:20 pm »
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1976-  Reagan over Carter
1980- Reagan over Ted Kennedy LOL
1984- Bush over John Glenn
1988- Candidate over Bush
1992- Geez this is too hard
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I'm Derek and I approve this message.
justW353
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« Reply #12 on: April 23, 2010, 03:38:53 pm »
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1920 - John F. Kennedy elected President over Warren G. Harding...

I'd love to hear that inaugural address.

To be serious, never write TLs, Yougo...Just don't do it.
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So a lack of knowledge means I'm not welcome here? I've always wondered why there's a lack of Republicans on this forum and now I'm beginning to see why.
Derek
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« Reply #13 on: April 24, 2010, 09:24:03 pm »
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John F. Kennedy in 1920?
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glm15jul
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« Reply #14 on: December 11, 2010, 09:37:16 pm »
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Without Watergate,  President Nixon would be regarded as one of the best presidents we ever had. He would have served from January 20, 1969-January 20, 1977.  We assume that Vice President Agnew resigns, as in real time, giving Nixon the opportunity to appoint another vice president.  Nixon wanted John Connally, and even if there was no Watergate, Congress still may have denied the president his choice, in an administration free of scandal.  What I know about Gerald Ford is that he always wanted to be the Speaker of the House, but the Democrats continued to keep the House.  He was quoted as saying that he would retire from politics after his current term was up, having served since 1948 in the House of Representatives. If Nixon had not selected him as vice president in December, 1973,  He would have retired.  Gerald Ford would have been out of the political picture.
Also,  without Watergate,  Jimmy Carter would not be in the picture, as well.  He ran on a "bring trust back to the White House" theme, which the trust issue would not be brought up, if Watergate did not happen.  Without Watergate,  the Republican party would have won for the third straight election in 1976.  **Whoever the Republican nominee would be. **  I say this because Ford nearly won it in 1976, with the Watergate scandal.   Take that scandal away, and the Democratic Party would have to wait until 1980, to try to capture the White House again.
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