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Author Topic: Bush projected to win electoral college 446-92  (Read 2562 times)
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jfern
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« on: October 24, 2004, 04:47:14 pm »
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It's from the day before the 2000 election.
They have California and Illinois for Bush.
Whoops.

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The worst case scenario for a Bush victory will be a 2-3 point win in the popular vote and 10-20% more than the necessary 270 EC votes.


http://web.archive.org/web/20001110051000/http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Polls/polls-EC_ALWAYS.html
« Last Edit: October 24, 2004, 04:51:22 pm by jfern »Logged
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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #1 on: October 24, 2004, 04:49:33 pm »
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Illinois was long considered in play during the 2000 campaign, though not by the last few weeks.
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« Reply #2 on: October 24, 2004, 04:51:57 pm »
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Much, much more tempered in their analysis and predictions this cycle, I think.
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Alcon
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« Reply #3 on: October 24, 2004, 04:52:35 pm »
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Haha:

"CNN/USA Today/Gallup, MSNBC/Zogby and Newsweek have done a nice job closing the polls for Vice President Gore. All three polls now have Gore within two points and supposedly gaining. We'll see Tuesday whether the propaganda campaign to keep Democrats from becoming disillusioned and voting for Nader was successful in diluting the size of the Bush victory."

"The real debate is not who is going to win the election, but whether Bush will win 308 electoral votes or 474 electoral votes."

"The truth is that George W. Bush has a better chance of carrying New Jersey and Vermont than Al Gore does of becoming the next President of the United States."

"The media openly acknowledges Bush's base is more energized and that Gore faces a significant threat from Nader on his left. Yet the pundits still talk as if the election is too close to call and could go either way."

"On Tuesday night the talking heads will all be abuzz with their exit poll analyses showing how Bush destroyed Gore in the male vote, broke even with women, carried over 40% of the Hispanic vote, and the surprising strength of Ralph Nader. All of this is clear today, but it will take the network exit polls to make it clear to the national press."

"We continue to see a landslide of over 400 electoral votes and a Bush win by 7-10 points. We will have to wait until tomorrow to see whether the 'tightening polls' may have worked to save Illinois, California, Minnesota and a few others for the Vice President."

That liberal media and their polling - always trying to find trends that exist. Oops indeed!
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Nym90
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« Reply #4 on: October 24, 2004, 05:03:09 pm »
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No, see, it was all a ploy by the liberal media to make Republicans think Bush had the election wrapped up, so that they would stay home.

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Shira
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« Reply #5 on: October 24, 2004, 05:05:55 pm »
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http://archives.cnn.com/2000/ALLPOLITICS/stories/10/29/tracking.poll/
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« Reply #6 on: October 24, 2004, 05:07:37 pm »
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And that Gallup poll you just linked to was 9 days before the 2000 election; the same point we are at now in this cycle.
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AuH2O
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« Reply #7 on: October 24, 2004, 05:16:40 pm »
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Well,

1) The problem was that they did not see sufficient evidence to conclude Gore was surging massively; certainly he was closing the gap, but the polls had all agreed for a long time that Bush was in the lead

2) Do not bash other predictions unless you have proof of your own and their accuracy

I don't imagine jfern called it perfectly, but hey, if he can prove that he did, I'll give him props.
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jfern
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« Reply #8 on: October 24, 2004, 05:40:17 pm »
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Well,

1) The problem was that they did not see sufficient evidence to conclude Gore was surging massively; certainly he was closing the gap, but the polls had all agreed for a long time that Bush was in the lead

2) Do not bash other predictions unless you have proof of your own and their accuracy

I don't imagine jfern called it perfectly, but hey, if he can prove that he did, I'll give him props.

I knew Florida was a tossup and whoever won Florida won the Presidency.
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AuH2O
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« Reply #9 on: October 24, 2004, 05:51:55 pm »
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Could you point me to evidence that was your position?
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« Reply #10 on: October 24, 2004, 05:52:47 pm »
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The predicted Bush would win by 10%?   How many poll showed any thing like that, other than one Gallup poll.  I seem to remember most trackers projecting the lead at 4 or 5.  And they have Nader winning 6%??   Could everybody foresee that the bottom was going to fall out of his support on election day.  Even without the last minute Gore surge, this is a laughable prediction.
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« Reply #11 on: October 24, 2004, 05:56:39 pm »
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"We continue to see a landslide of over 400 electoral votes and a Bush win by 7-10 points. We will have to wait until tomorrow to see whether the 'tightening polls' may have worked to save Illinois, California, Minnesota and a few others for the Vice President."

Ah, fair and balanced, just like FOX! Cheesy

I assume they are less biased this year because their old editor had a heart attack and died on November 7, 2000.
« Last Edit: October 24, 2004, 06:41:57 pm by volrath50 »Logged

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« Reply #12 on: October 24, 2004, 06:33:57 pm »
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I like how all the tossups leaning toward Bush were won by Gore, 3 by more than 10 points.
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AuH2O
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« Reply #13 on: October 24, 2004, 06:48:44 pm »
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Actually, their ranking of Bush's performance by state was pretty good-- it was just their popular vote estimate that was off.

I like bold predictions. Always picking a tie is a cheap way out. When you're wrong you can still claim to have been close.
« Last Edit: October 24, 2004, 06:50:39 pm by AuH2O »Logged

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« Reply #14 on: October 24, 2004, 07:13:17 pm »
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Had Nader received 6% of the vote, this would be realistic. But he didn't.
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MODU
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« Reply #15 on: October 24, 2004, 08:20:20 pm »
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I recall that.  Even back then I knew someone was smoking crack while sitting behind their typewriter.
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