A New 2012 & 2016 Election Timeline: Crisis

[21st Century Independent]

Great TL. I liked the NOVEMBER surprise. Good drama with Israel/Iran.

[sentinel]

Great TL. I liked the NOVEMBER surprise. Good drama with Israel/Iran.

Thanks! By November surprise you mean the death/capture of Bin Laden and the attacks and not the fact that I skipped November 2013, right? haha

[California8429]

Oo, good choices for 2016 Republicans.

Don't know if Puerto Rico would vote for statehood since they've constantly voted against it, but if there was a President to bring them in these few decades in (besides Fortuno) I guess it ould be Obama

[tmthforu94]

Why isn't Lugar running for re-election? He has mentioned a couple times that he plans on seeking re-election.

[sentinel]

Oo, good choices for 2016 Republicans.

Don't know if Puerto Rico would vote for statehood since they've constantly voted against it, but if there was a President to bring them in these few decades in (besides Fortuno) I guess it ould be Obama

They have constantly voted against it, but statehood has gotten more and more support each time. I think a well waged campaign to get them to vote in favor of it (like an issue campaign) would result in them voting for it. I agree though, Obama would be the President to bring em in.

Why isn't Lugar running for re-election? He has mentioned a couple times that he plans on seeking re-election.

I made a mistake. He gets re-elected in 2012 and he will retire in 2016. I like him better than Coats anyhow.

I need to fix one update about other people retiring, made a few mistakes on that too, but everything else is as accurate as I need it to be.

Update coming in a few minutes.

[sentinel]

February 2014

Puerto Rico:

Do you approve of the job that President Obama is doing?
Yes:  60%
No: 13%

Nationally:

Approve: 61%
Disapprove: 37%

March 2014
   President Obama proposes closing loopholes in gun-regulation bills and strengthening background checks before one can purchase a gun. The Republican House is up in flames but as long as two Republicans vote with the Democrats the bill will pass. The President gears up for a fight including from some conservative Democrats.

April 2014
   A Congressional Committee picks a flag that will be used when Puerto Rico enters the Union.

Congress approves the change by voice vote.

June 2014
   All is fairly quiet in the Middle East, Tehran has allowed Muslim UN inspectors in and no other nuclear weapons have been found. The President of Iran has stopped saber-rattling for the time being.
   North and South Korea have increasingly been at odds

July 2014
   The same day the Senate and House pass the final version of Obama’s gun regulation bill, the President announces a sweeping overhaul of social security. Partisanship is seen almost immediately.

Obama Approval: 56%

August 2014
   During a closed-door meeting with Congressional leaders the President asks them to advise other Congressman not to hold town hall meetings on social security. The President says most people simply aren’t informed on either side of this complex issue, and passionate town hall meetings will make it harder to get anything done.

September 2014
   Democrats are increasingly at odds for the President for introducing such a big reform package for Social Security only months before the election. Democratic leaders ask the President to post-pone any votes on the package.

Obama Approval: 54%

October 2014
   The President says he expects a vote on Social Security to come early next year, siding with many Democrats who were opposed to voting for it before the midterm elections.

November 2014
   Results…

Gubernatorial Results:
RE = reelected

Colorado (Hickenlooper – D RE), New York (Cuomo – D RE), Maine (Rowe – D RE), New Mexico (Denish – D RE), Michigan (Bernero –D RE), Oklahoma (Brogdon – R RE), Oregon (Wyden – D), Pennsylvania (Corbett – R RE), Tennessee (Ramsey – R RE), Wisconsin (Barrett – D RE), Wyoming (Micheli – R), Arkansas (Boozman – R), Illinois (Jackson Jr – D), Iowa ((Rod) Roberts – R ), Maryland (Brown – D), Ohio (Kasich – R ), Idaho (Little – R), Nebraska (Sheehy– R ), Nevada (Gibbons – R RE), Texas (White – D), Utah (Herbert – R RE), Alabama (Byrne – R RE),  California (Whitman– R), Connecticut (Lamont – D RE), Florida (McCollum – R RE), Georgia (Oxendine – R RE), Hawaii (Abercrombie – D RE), Minnesota (Entenza – D), Rhode Island (Chaffee – I RE), South Carolina (Barrett – R RE), South Dakota (Duagaard – R RE), Massachusetts (Cahill – I RE), Arizona (Arpaio – R RE), Alaska (Samuels – R), Vermont (Markowitz – D RE)

(Approx. 13 Democrat wins,   19 Republican, 2 Independent)

Senate Results (Class 3)

New Hampshire: Paul Hodes (D) wins reelection
Connecticut: Blumenthal (D) wins reelection

Illinois: Giannoulias (D) wins reelection
New York: Majority Leader Schumer (D) wins reelection

California: Boxer (D) wins reelection
Ohio:  George Voinovich opts not to run for another term and retires. Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner (D) wins the election.

Hawaii: James Alona (R)  wins election to the Senate.  
Maryland: Mikulski opts not to run again. Donna Edwards  (D) wins election

Oregon:  Rep. Kurt Schrader (D) wins election to the open seat.
Vermont: Leahy (D) wins reelection

Arkansas: Blanche Lincoln loses to former Governor Jim Filsom Jr (R)
Delaware: Michael Castle is defeated by state Attorney General Beau Biden (D)

Indiana: Daniel Coasts (R) wins reelection
North Dakota: Hoeven (R) wins reelection

Colorado: Norton (R) wins reelection
Nevada: Lowden (R) wins reelection

Pennsylvania: Toomey (R) wins reelection
Wisconsin: Feingold (D) comes back and defeats Thompson

Kansas: Rep. Jerry Moran(R) wins election to the Senate
Kentucky:  Rand Paul (R) wins reelection

Missouri: Blunt (R) wins reelection
Arizona: Appointed to fill the late Senator McCain’s seat, Jeff Flake wins his first election.

Georgia: Chambliss (R) wins reelection
Florida: Rubio (R) wins reelection

Alabama:  Robert Riley (R) wins election to his first Senate term.
Alaska: Murkowski (R) wins reelection

Idaho: Crapo (R) wins reelection
Iowa: Grassley (R) wins reelection to his final term in office (says he will retire after).

Louisiana: Vitter (R) wins reelection
Oklahoma: Coburn (R) wins reelection

North Carolina: Burr (R) wins reelection
South Dakota: Thune (R) wins reelection

Utah:  Bob Bishop (R) wins election to the Senate

Puerto Rico:
   Class 1 Senator: Jennifer Gonzalez, Speaker of the Puerto Rico House of Representatives, is elected to a two year Senate seat.
   Class 3 Senator:  Former Governor Pedro Rossello is elected to the Senate for a full 6 year term.

The “New Progressive Party” in Puerto Rico is divided. Governor Fortuno switches his registration to Republican, while Gonzalez runs as a fiscal conservative Democrat.

Senate Composition:
Democrats: 53
Republicans: 49

Senate composition stays the same but the addition of two new Senators from Puerto Rico gives the Democrats an additional two seats.

House Composition:
Democrats: 226
Republicans: 219

Puerto Rico splits its House delegation: 4 Democrats, 2 Republicans.
Control of the House returns to the Democrats by a 3 seat majority.

[California8429]

Awh, I was hoping Norton got the boot

[Barnes]

Isakson is up for reelection in 2016, not 2014. You're thinking of Saxby Chambliss.

[sentinel]

Awh, I was hoping Norton got the boot

I considered it

Isakson is up for reelection in 2016, not 2014. You're thinking of Saxby Chambliss.

Fixed (well it will be in a second)

[sentinel]

January 4th 2015

   Puerto Rico officially becomes the 51st state and its two Senators and six Representatives are sworn in. They are given a standing ovation on the floor of the Senate and House, respectively. Celebrations take place in Puerto Rican communities, as well as non Puerto Rican communities, all around the United States and especially in Puerto Rico.

January 20th 2015

   President Obama in his State of the Union speech addresses the increasing problems with illegal immigrants and outlines his plans for Social Security reform.

January 21st 2015

Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia announces that he will step down as a Supreme Court Justice due to health reasons.

President Obama praises his service and says he will replace him expediently.
*I want to say here, that John Paul Stevens (2010) and Ruth Bader Ginsburg (2011) also step down during the Obama Administration. They are replaced by Michigan Governor Jennifer Granholm (2010) and Seth Waxman (2011).

January 22nd 2015

   Secretary of State George Mitchell travels to the Middle East and then to Saudi Arabia for a normal diplomatic mission.

16:00 local time: On the way, Mitchell’s plane is diverted to another (private) airstrip in Saudi Arabia due to conditions on the ground. This airport is substantially closer to Mecca.

18:00: Mitchell’s Saudi Arabian escort meets him at the airport and they begin travel to their destination which is substantially farther away now. Mitchell’s Secret Service recommends that they just take off again when ground conditions improve but Mitchell insists that they go with the Saudi’s because he feel taking off again would be an insult to the Saudi’s when they sent an escort this far.

18:05: A member of the Saudi Arabian escort makes a phone call

“We should be in route shortly…”
“I will see you soon then…”

[sentinel]

18:15: The escort leaves from the airport for its ultimate destination 3 hours away.

19:37: Secretary of State George Mitchell’s escort is stopped by what looks like Saudi officials.

19:40: An ambush begins on the escort as a roadside bomb goes off blowing up one of the cars in the escort Attackers begin popping up all around the escort. The Saudi military in the escort exchange fire while the Secret Service return fire and try protect Secretary Mitchell.

19:42: A makeshift grenade launcher blows up another car in the escort.

19:43: One of the cars in the escort manages to get out from between the others cars but its tires are blown out almost immediately. Enemy operatives have the escort fully encircled.

19:44: Enemy operatives begin binding the Saudi and American officials who are still alive from the escort. Bags are placed over their heads as they are thrown into vehicles.

“Sir, Saudi intelligence has just informed us that the convoy with Secretary of State has been attacked.”
“What is the status of the Secretary?”

“They don’t know. The Saudi’s are sending in their police force now, but it’s going to be a while –they’re in the middle of nowhere.”

“What about our people?”

“They’re ready for the order.”

“Get me the Joint Chiefs.”

[sentinel]

2:00pm EST (20:00 Saudi Time)

President Obama has a visitor in the Oval Office…
“Mr. President.”

“Yes –uh, McMullen?”

“Secretary of State George Mitchell’s convoy has been attacked by an unknown enemy, most likely radicals, in Saudi Arabia. The Saudis are fully cooperating at this time –probably because a few of their officials are dead too… but we do not know the status or whereabouts of Secretary Mitchell. On your order we can send a team in…”

“We can’t have American soldiers on the ground so close to the Muslim Holy Land that would only infuriate them…do we have visuals? Do we even know where they are?”

“Sir, we are trying to get visuals now…we have spy drones on the way…we’re going on Saudi information here. This happened in the middle of nowhere…this is at least an hour or two from any of our operatives.”

The President walks out of the Oval Office and says to his bodyman Reggie Love “Get Tom, it’s an emergency, after tell the Saudi Ambassador to get down here.”

The President turns back to the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff “I want all of our available options within the next 20 minutes, I’ll come down to the Situation Room with Tom in a few minutes. Activate all of our operatives and get all the information you can. I want Special Operatives as well as air support ready to go on my order.”

“Yes, Mr. President”

“Nowhere is everywhere in Saudi Arabia…”

20:10 – As a precautionary measure Vice President Biden is moved to a more secure location.

The people carrying him suddenly stopped and threw him into a chair. He could feel that his hands and feet were bound and everyone around him was speaking Arabic. “Where am I?” he thought The President had to know he had been kidnapped by now. Were Special Forces on the way? I should have never taken this job.
   His captors took the bag off his head. He couldn’t see well without his glasses but from what he could tell he was in a shoddily built room with cement walls. There were men in semi-military clothing with their faces covered with black masks.

   “Ah, Mr. Mitchell – I’m very glad to have you.” Said the captor without a mask on with broken English
   “Let me go.”

   “After all that hard work?”

   “Why did you take me?”

   “I don’t think you’re in the position to ask questions.” Apparently his understanding of English was better than he though.

   “Is this revenge for the death of Osama Bin Laden?”

   “No, but I’m sure some will see it that way.”

20:20 – The Situation Room
   “Mr. President.”

   “Sit gentlemen. What do we know of Secretary Mitchell’s convoy and his health?”

   “Sir, I’m sorry to say that we don’t know much. Saudi Police are searching nearby villages and our spy drones show car tracks going in several directions in the sand, but much of it has been blown over already."

   “if you tell me that we have to negotiate with these terrorists…Do we know who they are?”
   “We can’t eliminate al-Qaeda even though they are crippled, the Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff has a theory that it is a covert wing of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard.”

   “Put me on the phone with the Saudi Crown Prince”

   “Yes sir.”

[sentinel]

Note: I realized I was writing 2014, its 2015 now.

   20:30
   “Mr. President, the terrorists have issued a statement through the media calling for the removal of Saudi UN inspectors from Iran or else Secretary of State George Mitchell will be killed. They also have Saudi hostages including what is the equivalent of the Saudi Arabian Deputy Foreign Minister…”
   “Alright, now that they released a message, do we have an idea of where they are?”
   “Yes, we have new intelligence on the whereabouts of the terrorists. Special Forces can be there within 3 hours.”
   “Do it.”

21:00

   The White House Press Secretary briefs the media about the situation and says the United States is taking all appropriate action at this time.
23:23:

   Special Forces initiate Operation “Desert Mirage”
23:38:
   “Colonel, what is your status?”

   “Sir, they killed Mitchell before we could get to him. We’re bringing back the body now. We have managed to capture three of the terrorists, we killed at least twenty on the way in.”

00:00 (6pm EST)

   President Obama addresses the nation on the events of the day. “Secretary of State George Mitchell was a dedicated public servant and deserved nothing less than the highest honor…and I had the honor to have him be a part of my Administration…We will stop the people who financed and ordered this act of terror.”

January 24th 2015

   The American people respond favorably to President Obama’s handling of the conflict. The Secretary of State’s body, along with the bodies of the other Americans killed who were in the escort, are flown back to the United States.

January 25th 2015
   It is revealed that the terrorists who did this were “independent” former members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard who wanted Saudi UN Inspectors out of Iran and believed in Iran’s right to have nuclear weapons.

   President Obama calls on Iran to bring any of these people in Iran to justice.
   Iran says it will cooperate and its government did not order any such attack.

January 26th 2015

Saudi Arabia vows to the United States that it will find the perpetrators and fight them with all of its might.

February 1st 2015

   President Barack Obama nominates Senator and former Democratic Presidential nominee John Kerry of Massachusetts to replace George Mitchell as his Secretary of State.

February 5th 2015

   The Senate confirms now Secretary of State John Kerry unanimously by voice vote.

February 7th 2015

   Iran says they will “try” four guards linked with the attacks in Iranian Court. The UN asks for them to be turned over, but Iran refuses and says they will get punished appropriately in Iran.

March 2015

   The RNC & DNC announce the primary schedule for 2016:
1st Primary: Wyoming – April 2nd
2nd Primary – Oregon – April 9th
3rd Primary – North Carolina – April 16th
1st Bloc of States to Vote – Zone 7 (West Coast) April 23rd
2nd Bloc– Zone 3 (South) April 30th
3rd Bloc– Zone 4 (Central West, Central Time) May 7th
4th Bloc– Zone 2 (Mason-Dixie) May 14th
5th Bloc – Zone 6 (Mountain Time) May 28th
6th Bloc Zone 1 (New England, Mid Atlantic) June 5th
7th Bloc – Zone 5 (Midwest, Illinois etc) June 12th
*See earlier posts (1 or 2nd page) for full Zone explanations

Obama Approval: 56%

April 2015

   The Senate and House quietly pass Social Security reform on party-lines.

May 8th 2015

   Vice President Biden holds a press conference…

“Mr. Vice President, will you run for President?”

“I will not be a candidate for President in 2016, after this I will be retiring and spending more time with my grandchildren.”

May 9th 2015

   Reports flock to Hillary Clinton’s doorstep asking if she will run. Her Press Secretary refuses to answer any questions regarding a possible

May 10th 2015

At a press conference Hillary Clinton says she will not run for President.

Pundits: This opens the floodgates for Democratic contenders in 2016…most of them should be announcing soon in September.

[sentinel]

June 2015
   Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee and Sarah Palin rule out another Presidential run. The GOP field is wide open.

2016 GOP Primary Polling:

Rand Paul: 13%
John Thune: 8%
Marco Rubio: 7%
Bob McDonnell: 6%
Bobby Jindal: 5%
Scott Brown: 4%
Undecided: 57%

2016 Democratic Primary Polling:

Andrew Cuomo: 14%
Mark Warner: 10%
Brian Schweitzer: 4%
Al Gore, Jr.: 4%
Virgil Bernero: 4%
Alexi Giannoulias: 2%
Undecided: 62%

A polling organization decides to drop a poll even though no one has announced yet. Some Democrats are surprised that Gore is still appearing in polls.

Al Gore rules out a Presidential run when asked by a reporter.

July – August 2015

   Relatively quiet summer given the past year for the President. The projections come for the deficit and they are better than expected but still towering around $1 trillion dollars. Unemployment is about 6%.

Obama Approval: 50%

Next updates: Presidential Announcements

[Historico]

Very Intresting List, eventhough we still probably have another year or so before Folks start to announce their Canadacies...Keep it comming!!!

[sentinel]

Very Intresting List, eventhough we still probably have another year or so before Folks start to announce their Canadacies...Keep it comming!!!

Announcements are the next update actually since the election is in 2016

[sentinel]

September 5th 2015

Former Governor of Ohio Ted Strickland announces that he will seek the Democratic nomination for President.

September 6th 2015

Governor  Mike Pence of Indiana announces that he will seek the Republican nomination for President.

September 8th 2015

Former Chief of Staff and former Representative Rahm Emmanuel of Illinois announces that he will seek the Democratic nomination for President.

Former Governor Linda Lingle of Hawaii announces that she will seek the Republican nomination for President. She now primarily resides in California.

September 10th 2015

Governor Tom Barrett of Wisconsin announces that he will seek the Democratic nomination for President.

September 12th 2015

Governor John Lynch of New Hampshireannounces that he will seek the Democratic nomination for President.

September 18th 2015

Senator Scott Brown of Massachusetts announces that he will seek the Republican nomination for President.

Pundits: More politicians are jumping in the race because there is no clear frontrunner. President Obama and Vice President Biden have said they will endorse only the Democratic nominee for President and no candidate before then.

More are expected to announce in the coming month.

[sentinel]

September 20th 2015

Senator, and former Governor, Mark Warner of Virginia announces that he will seek the Democratic nomination for President.

September 21st 2015

Former Governor John Kitzhaber of Oregon announces that that he will seek the Democratic nomination for President.

October 1st 2015

Former Governor Bob McDonnell of Virginia announces that he will seek the Republican nomination for President.

October 8th 2015

Representative Chet Edwards of Texas announces that he will seek the Democratic nomination for President.

October 10th 2015

Senator John Thune of South Dakota announces that he will seek the Republican nomination for President.

Senator Marco Rubio of Florida announces that he will seek the Republican nomination for President.

October 15th 2015

Governor Andrew Cuomo of New York announces that he will seek the Democratic nomination for President.

October 18th 2015

   Governor Bobby Jindal of Louisiana announces that he will seek the Republican nomination for President.

October 21st 2015

   Former Vice Presidential Nominee Republican Senator Rand Paul announces that he will seek the Presidency.

October 22nd 2015

Representative Marsha Blackburn of Tennessee announces that she will seek the Republican nomination for President.

October 27th 2015

Governor Christine Gregorie of Washington announces that she will seek the Democratic nomination for President.

November 1st 2015

Secretary of Health & Human Services Kathleen Sebelius announces that she will seek the Democratic nomination for President.

November 3rd 2015

Republican Representative, and former majority and minority whip, Eric Cantor announces that he will seek the Presidency.

Pundits had thought Cantor would throw his hat into the ring earlier but the entrance of Bob McDonnell may have inhibited him from doing so.

[Progressive]

Cuomo/Sebelius woo!

[sentinel]

New York Times: There are several more candidates who are considering throwing their hats into the ring including Senator Alexi Giannoulias of Illinois, Governor Bill Richardson of New Mexico, Governor Brian Schweitzer of Montana and Governor Bill Ritter of Colorado, Representative Peter King of New York, General David Patreus who has a PAC, Governor Jeb Bush of Florida, Governor Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota and Governor Jon Huntsman Jr of Utah. These candidates do stand a chance against the onslaught of opponents already but definitely are reconsidering due to the massive number of them. As of now there are 10 candidates running in each party.

November 15th 2015

Former Ambassador and former Governor, Jon Huntsman Jr throws his hat into the ring for the Republican nomination for President.

November 20th 2015

Little known Senator Alexi Giannoulias of Illinois throws his hat into the ring for the Democratic nomination for President. He says he will campaign vigorously in Oregon and North Carolina.

December 1st 2015

Governor Bill Richardson of New Mexico says he will seek the Democratic nomination.

Former Governor Bill Ritter of Colorado appears alongside Richardson and endorses him for the nomination.

General David Patreus says he will be voting for Bob McDonnell for the Republican nomination.

Former Governor Jeb Bush of Florida says he will be be supporting Senator Marco Rubio.

December Polling

Democratic Primary (12 candidates):

Cuomo: 15%
Warner: 13%
Emmanuel: 11%
Strickland: 10%
Richardson: 10%
Barrett: 6%
Lynch: 5%
Sebelius:   5%
Kitzhaber: 4%
Edwards:   3%
Gregorie:   3%
Gianoulias: 2%

Republican Primary (11 candidates):

Rand: 17%
McDonnell   : 15%
Jindal: 13%
Rubio: 11%
Blackburn: 10%
Thune: 8%
Brown: 7%
Huntsman: 5%
Pence: 5%
Cantor: 5%
Lingle: 2%

December 5th 2015

   The candidates begin to campaign and attempt to raise money all across the country. Pundits believe that with funds spread out amongst 23 candidates that many will drop out very early due to fund raising concerns.
   President Obama has been abroad much of the past few months at the G8 summit as well as at other international summits.

Obama Approval: 46%

[Historico]

Oh...Sorry for that I was thinking it was still 2014 not 2015 lol, But yeah heres my guess...On the GOP Side, I'd be ok with Rubio, Lingle or Jindal on the Democratic side Cuomo's obviously the strongest candidate but I like Sebeilus or Richardson aswell

[sentinel]

January 2015
   The candidates vigorously try to raise money more than campaign. It seems harder to raise money for every candidate this year especially for former Governor Linda Lingle of Hawaii who received a little bit of media attention for her inability to pay her staff very early on and fundraising problems. On the Democratic side Governor Christine Gregorie is having similar problems but nearly as bad.

Even though Gianoulias is polling very low, he is running a very low-cost campaign so money is not a problem, yet. Andrew Cuomo, Ted Strickland and Mark Warner tend to take the media spotlight on the Democratic side, while Jindal, Rubio and Thune are grabbing the media attention on the Republican side. The average age of the Republican candidates is lower this year in comparison to the Democrats.

President Barack Obama gives his last State of the Union address and says he looks forward to health care being fully implemented this year and promises to continue bringing about change in government. The President says he will tackle

(I forgot to mention that President Obama replaces Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia with Judge Kim Wardlaw).

February 3rd 2016

   Former President Jimmy Carter dies at the ripe old age of 91. Former President George H.W Bush looks very weak at his funeral that all the living former Presidents attend.

February 7th 2016

   Governor Linda Lingle of Hawaii drops out of the race citing fundraising concerns and a lack of momentum.

   Senator Paul Rand is getting hit by his opponents as being a radical libertarian like his father.

February 15th 2016

   The first Democratic and Republican debate takes place. All the candidates are allowed to participate.

   The Democratic debate ends up being about who can get the most airtime since there are 12 candidates and Cuomo, Warner and Emmanuel end up getting the most airtime followed by Richardson and Kitzhaber, the latter manages to yell over everyone else.  Issues clearly are not important in this debate as each candidate is outlining a broad idea of what they want to do.

   The Republican debate goes the same way. It has way too many people to be an effective debate and Rand, Thune, and Rubio get the more airtime followed by Blackburn, Jindal and McDonnell. Most of the attacks seem to be on Rand. Scott Brown manages to squeeze a peep in here or there.

February 18th 2016

   Democratic Governor Christine Gregorie drops out of the race citing fund-raising issues.

End of February Democratic Polling:

Cuomo:   18%
Warner: 15%
Emmanuel: 13%
Strickland: 12%
Richardson: 12%
Kitzhaber: 8%
Barrett:   6%
Lynch:   5%
Sebelius:  5%
Edwards: 3%
Gianoulias: 2%

Republican Primary Polling:

McDonnell: 15%
Rubio: 14%
Rand: 13%
Thune:  13%
Jindal: 13%
Blackburn: 10%
Brown: 9%
Huntsman: 5%
Pence: 5%
Cantor   3%

Wyoming (1st Primary) Polling (Top 4)

Democratic:

Strickland: 24%
Richardson: 22%
Warner: 18%
Cuomo: 16%
Republican:
Rubio: 20%
Thune: 18%
Rand: 16%
Blackburn: 15%

March 2016

   The candidates continue to campaign vigorously in the first three primary states and feel the money drain from their pockets.

   
Representative Eric Cantor, under pressure from Republicans in Virginia, pulls out of the Presidential race and endorses former Governor Bob McDonnell of Virginia.

   President Obama says that he likes the current crop of Democrats running for President and would gladly endorse any of them when they receive the Democratic nomination. Obama’s approval goes back up due to recent good press about some of his new domestic policies.

Obama Approval: 50%

On the Democratic side, Representative Chet Edwards pulls out of the race citing fundraising problems.

March 25th 2016
   Rahm Emmanuel is caught on camera cursing and jeering at an aide in a semi-public place. Emmanuel looks furious. Many say he sounds like a lunatic while yelling at the young aide.

[sentinel]

March 30h 2016

    Rahm Emmanuel suspends his campaign after the media replays the video of him cursing at his aid over and over. Emmanuel’s staff also saw his numbers drop nationally in their inside polls and he lost several major endorsements in Oregon and North Carolina.

April 2nd 2016
The First Primary

Wyoming Results:

Democrats:


Governor Ted Strickland wins the day with 25.76% of the vote.

Warner: 19.22%
Richardson: 19.10%
Cuomo: 16.32%
Bennett: 6.21%
Lynch: 4.61%
Kitzhaber: 4.00%
Sebelius: 3.78%
Gianoulias: 1%

Republicans:


Senator John Thune wins a slim victory: 18.91%

Rubio: 18.12%
Blackburn: 16.27%
McDonnell: 15.13%
Rand: 11.41%
Jindal: 10.31%
Brown: 5.11%
Huntsman: 2.74%
Pence: 2%

Pundits Analysis: Governor Strickland is not ahead in national polls but now has momentum to get there. Today’s results are a huge blow for Governor Cuomo who is seen as the frontrunner nationally.

The Republican results show a close race. Thune who is behind nationally may be thrown to the front of the pack if he can keep up this win. Momentum is in his hands.

April 3rd 2016
   Democrat Kathleen Sebelius responds to rumors that she will drop out of the race, but confirming that if there is a poor showing in Oregon then she will drop out.

   Alexi Giannoulias denies rumors that he will end his bid.

   Former Governor Jon Huntsman and Governor Mike Pence drop out of the race for the Republican nomination citing financial concerns and a poor showing.

April 9th 2016

Oregon Primary Results:

Democrats:



Governor Andrew Cuomo wins the day with 22.12% of the vote
Kitzhaber: 20.17%
Warner: 15.9%
Richardson: 15.6%
Strickland: 13%
Lynch: 5.16%
Bennett: 3.77%
Sebelius: 3.31%
Gianoulias: 1%



Senator Scott Brown wins a surprise victory with 20.22% of the vote.

Jindal: 18.01%
Rubio: 18.12%
Thune: 15.26%
Blackburn: 12.11%
McDonnell: 10.91%
Rand: 5.37%

Pundits: On the Republican side, a huge win for Scott Brown who is not doing well nationally. A setback for Marco Rubio and John Thune but they’re still in this. McDonnell is not doing as well as many had expected him to do with little known Representative Marsha Blackburn defeating him for fourth place. Ultimately this is a huge loss for Rand Paul, and only time will tell what he does next.

On the Democratic side, a nice win for Cuomo helping revive him after losing in Wyoming. Kitzhaber coming in second place is embarrassing since he was Governor of Oregon. He can’t even win his own state.

April 10th 2016
   Secretary of Health & Human Services Kathleen Sebelius withdraws from the Presidential race.
   Governor Barrett of Wisconsin withdraws from the Presidential race.
   Rumors are flying about Senator Paul Rand pulling out of the race.

[sentinel]

April 16th 2016

Third Primary: North Carolina Results

Democratic:


Senator Mark Warner has his first victory of this season getting 27.51% of the vote

Strickland: 24.21%
Cuomo: 19.5%
Richardson: 15.6%
Lynch: 8.16%
Gianoulias: 2.9%
Kitzhaber: 2.12%


Republican

Governor Bobby Jindal has his first win with 23.23% of the vote.



Brown: 18.76%
McDonnell: 18.13%
Rubio: 16.51%
Blackburn: 13.11%
Thune: 10.26%
Rand: 5.37%

Governor Kitzhaber and Senator Rand Paul drop out of the race the next morning.

National Polls:

End of February Democratic Polling:

Strickland: 22%
Cuomo:   21%
Warner: 18%
Richardson: 16%
Lynch:   8%
Gianoulias: 5%
Undecided: 10%

Republican Primary Polling:

Rubio: 22%
Brown: 17%
Thune:  16%
Jindal: 15%
McDonnell: 10%
Blackburn: 7%
Undecided: 13%

Delegate Count:
Democrats:

Warner: 51 (carried North Carolina)
Cuomo: 44 (carried Oregon)
Strickland: 36 (carried Wyoming)
Richardson: 35
Kitzhaber: 14 (Out)
Republicans:

Jindal: 66
Brown: 27
Thune: 12

[California8429]

Go McDonnell! McDonnell/Cantor 2016