National Atlasian Presidential Poll Results

[Colin]

Results for the National Atlasian Presidential Poll #1




A) Republican Party
B) Jesus Christ Party
C) Democratic Party
D) Socialist Liberal Alliance
E) Christian Democratic Party
F) Ron Paul Party
G) Independent
H) Other

2) Please preference the candidates from 1 to 4, using the same rules as per Atlasian elections.

First Preferences

Brandon H/Wildcard: 34.29% 12 votes
Colin Wixted/Jas: 22.86% 8 votes
Preston Caldwell/Speed of Sound: 22.86% 8 votes
Everett/Tik: 20.0% 7 votes

Second Preferences

Colin Wixted/Jas: 62.86% 22 votes
Preston Caldwell/Speed of Sound: 14.29% 5 votes
Brandon H/Wildcard: 11.43% 4 votes
Everett/Tik: 11.43% 4 votes

Third Preferences

Preston Caldwell/Speed of Sound: 34.29% 12 votes
Brandon H/Wildcard: 28.57% 10 votes
Everett/Tik: 22.86% 8 votes
Colin Wixted/Jas: 14.29% 5 votes

Fourth Preferences

Everett/Tik: 45.71% 16 votes
Preston Caldwell/Speed of Sound: 28.57% 10 votes
Brandon H/Wildcard: 25.71% 9 votes
Colin Wixted/Jas: 0.0% 0 votes

3) How confident are you of your vote?

Very Confident 68.6% 24 votes
Confident  20.0% 7 votes
Somewhat Confident  8.6% 3 votes
Undecided  2.9% 1 votes

Very Confident/Confident: 88.5%
Somewhat Confident/Undecided: 11.5%

4) Do you approve of President Afleitch's service as President of Atlasia?

Strongly Approve  14.3% 5 votes
Approve  28.6% 10 votes
Unsure  31.4% 11 votes
Disapprove  20.0% 7 votes
Strongly Disapprove  5.7% 2 votes

Approve: 42.9%
Disapprove: 25.7%
Unsure: 31.4%

5) For those who APPROVE or STRONGLY APPROVE President Afleitch's service as President only:

What is your first preference in the upcoming election?

Colin Wixted/Jas  6.7% 1 vote
BrandonJ/Wildcard  40.0% 6 vote
Everett/Tik  20.0% 3 vote
Preston Caldwell/Speed of Sound  33.3% 5 vote
Undecided  0.0% 0 votes
Other  0.0% 0 votes

6) For those who DISAPROVE or STRONGLY DISAPPROVE President Afleitch's service as President only:

What is your first preference in the upcoming election?

Preston Caldwell/Speed of Sound  22.2% 2 votes
Everett/Tik  22.2% 2 votes
BrandonH/Wildcard  11.1% 1 vote
Colin Wixted/Jas  44.4% 4 votes
Undecided  0.0% 0 votes
Other  0.0% 0 votes

7) For those who are UNSURE of President Afleitch's service as President only:

What is your first preference in the upcoming election?

Colin Wixted/Jas  18.2% 2 votes
BrandonH/Wildcard  45.5% 5 votes
Everett/Tik  18.2% 2 votes
Preston Caldwell/Speed of Sound  9.1% 1 vote
Undecided  0.0% 0 votes
Other (Walter Evans Edge)  9.1% 1 vote

Percentage of First Preference Voters who Approve, Dissapprove and are Unsure of President Afleitch's performance as President:

Brandon H/Wildcard: 50.0% Approve, 8.33% Disapprove, 41.67% Unsure
Colin Wixted/Jas: 12.5% Approve, 50.0% Disapprove, 25% Unsure
Preston Caldwell/Speed of Sound: 62.5% Approve, 25% Disapprove, 12.5% Unsure
Everett/Tik: 42.85% Approve, 28.57% Disapprove, 28.57% Unsure

TOTAL NUMBER OF RESPONSES: 35 out of 91 registered voters

MARGIN OF ERROR ON ALL 35 RESPONSE QUESTIONS: +/- 13.11% or, roughly, 5 votes

[SPC]

It looks like Brandon could very well win this election

[Colin]

Analysis on the part of the pollster, ie myself, is forthcoming.

[SPC]

Analysis on the part of the pollster, ie myself, is forthcoming.

I'm guessing you're going to use this analysis to say that the Colin/Jas campaign is in good shape?

[Јas]

Analysis on the part of the pollster, ie myself, is forthcoming.

I'm guessing you're going to use this analysis to say that the Colin/Jas campaign is in good shape?

Anyone with a basic understanding of our voting system, should be able to see quite clearly that we're not in bad shape.

[SPC]

Analysis on the part of the pollster, ie myself, is forthcoming.

I'm guessing you're going to use this analysis to say that the Colin/Jas campaign is in good shape?

Anyone with a basic understanding of our voting system, should be able to see quite clearly that we're not in bad shape.

I never said you were in bad shape. I was just giving a parody of the pollster also being a candidate.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Given the MOE, it's well within the realm of possibility that Colin/Jas loses by being knocked out in the first round, despite having enough second preferences to defeat any pair of the other three major tickets once one of them goes down.

[Colin]

Analysis:

Brandon H/Wildcard are the clear favorite in first preferences beating both second place finishers, Preston Caldwell and Colin Wixted, by four votes, or 11.43%, of the vote. This seems to be drawn almost exclusively from the Republican Party and the Ron Paul Party, who total had 10 votes in the poll. Much like a string of conservative candidates throughout the years Brandon H/Wildcard has a very solid set of first round support but this support trails out in the lower preferences, with the ticket only picking up 4 votes from second preferences and 10 from third preferences. Just on the strength of its first round showing it would be in the National Atlasian Polling and Electoral Services Group's opinion that the Brandon H ticket is the most likely to head into the last round of voting. However his chances of victory there will be dependent upon winning a large amount of support from second and third preferences which, currently, he does not have.

Brandon H also seems to be pulling in a good amount of people who approve of President Afleitch's job performance and he has the lowest amount of disapprovals voting for him. It seems that this, in and of itself, shows the way that the conservative movement within Atlasia has attached to the Afleitch government and, through the nomination of such longtime conservative stalwarts as Mike Naso and Keystone Phil, Afleitch has created a large, and loyal, following among the right-wing of Atlasian politics.

Preston Caldwell/Speed of Sound seems to be the most evenly distributed ticket out of the four. It achieved solid showings in the first three rounds and constantly polled above the Brandon H/Wildcard ticket in every group of preferences. The main battle, now, is that the main race is between Mr. Caldwell and Mr. Wixted as whichever one of them is not eliminated is most likely to go on to the Presidency. While Preston Caldwell seems to be able to hold most of the left his electorate is based within the Socialist Liberal Alliance, the Democratic Party, and the pro-AFDNC left, which has pulled its weight behind this ticket.

Preston Caldwell also has the highest amount of voters who approve of the administration of President Afleitch. Preston seems to be getting the left-wing Afleitch supporters who usually are those on the moderate left and the remaining populists. Afleitch seems to have a good amount of support from Democrats and more than normal among SLA members. Though Preston did attract some, about 25% of his votes, votes from a few leftist critics of the Afleitch administration.

Colin Wixted/Jas seems to have the old problem of the centre. Approved of by all but lacking in a key electorate. The Wixted ticket is probably the most vulnerable of the big three in the first round however after that almost all preferences flow towards the ticket. A stunning almost 63% of voters second preferenced the ticket and if the ticket beats Everett/Tik it should be able to have enough preferences to keep it afloat against the other possible candidate to face Brandon H in the last round, Preston Caldwell. As I stated before this election could very possibly be decided by whether Caldwell or Wixted makes it into the final round as, from this poll and after reviewing prior elections within Atlasia, Brandon H may find himself without the lower preferences necessary to win.

Wixted's candidacy is supported by the most anti-Afleitch voters, which would seem to be the social liberal and Jesus Christ Party left, some of whom have stated their support for the ticket. This shows that the Wixted ticket seems to be favoured by those who want a change in leadership as opposed to the Brandon H and Caldwell tickets which seem to gain most of their support from those who support the administration and the status quo. The Wixted ticket seems to mostly be working with centrist and leftist voters as almost the entire right has come out in favour of the Brandon H candidacy.

Everett/Tik seems to be supporter by the same non-conformist elements that have always been evident within Atlasian politics. They are not brought together by their views on the administration or by political affliation. Everett has the largest amount of forth preferences of any candidate and is basically engulfed by a chasm between her supporters and the much larger group of detractors. However her votes will be kingmakers in an election that seems to be as close as this. From the data presented it seems that Everett voter's mostly second preferenced Wixted so if that ticket beats the Everett/Tik ticket in the first round it is likely to pick up a large boost in numbers. However the Everett/Tik ticket is suprisingly strong for such an anti-establishment and pseudo-joke ticket and could eclipse either Caldwell or Wixted if the right enviroment, and low turnout, occurs.

[Colin]

Given the MOE, it's well within the realm of possibility that Colin/Jas loses by being knocked out in the first round, despite having enough second preferences to defeat any pair of the other three major tickets once one of them goes down.

Absolutely. The first round will be incredibly close, if the current numbers hold up, and any ticket besides Brandon H's stands a chance of losing in the first round. My predictions, based upon this poll, is that if Everett is knocked out first then it is very likely that Colin Wixted/Jas would as most Everett's votes would flow to myself, if the data is correct. If Colin Wixted/Jas is knocked out in the first round it seems very likely that a Preston Caldwell presidency would be rather certain since he has a clear advantage in lower preferences over Brandon H.

Also, given the MOE, it is quite possible that anything could actually happen, which is another sad fact about Atlasian polling.

[Sensei]

This may sound strange, but I think Preston and Speed are going to pick up some steam after the first round when the fringe candidates are eliminated, assuming they place second.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Analysis on the part of the pollster, ie myself, is forthcoming.

I'm guessing you're going to use this analysis to say that the Colin/Jas campaign is in good shape?

Anyone with a basic understanding of our voting system, should be able to see quite clearly that we're not in bad shape.

I never said you were in bad shape. I was just giving a parody of the pollster also being a candidate.

Both Colin and Brandon are in VERY good shape for this race.

[jokerman]

Odds are the Democratic Party will turn out more than 3 voters for the election.

[Brandon H]

I was thinking similar results - take the lead in the first round but fail to pick up additional support as it goes on.

Also, keep in mind that there are many people who do not participate in Atlasia (don't read posts, run for office, participate in polls like this one) but do show up to vote. And a higher percentage of these persons lean left which would favor Preston.

I would consider Colin most ideologically close to Afleitch. So I am surprised that most of Colin's supporters have the least support for Afleitch.

[Sensei]

Upon further review of the figures, I think the Preston/Speed ticket have a decent to good chance to win if they could get second place over Colin/Jas. I foresee all of those  who support Everett/Tik going for Preston, and in addition to them, at least half of the moderate Colin/Jas voters. It can also be assumed that the Walter Evans Edge voter will vote Brandon . So Based on the data acquired, in a two-way race between Preston and Brandon H, Preston wins 54-46 in a close race, but of course this is all speculation and probably will not occur.

[afleitch]

I would consider Colin most ideologically close to Afleitch. So I am surprised that most of Colin's supporters have the least support for Afleitch.

I noticed that too. I thought Colins interpretation was a strong one though.

[Colin]

Upon further review of the figures, I think the Preston/Speed ticket have a decent to good chance to win if they could get second place over Colin/Jas. I foresee all of those  who support Everett/Tik going for Preston, and in addition to them, at least half of the moderate Colin/Jas voters.

Well, no. If you haven't seemed to notice a full 63% of people second preferenced the Colin Wixted/Jas ticket. That would mean that it is quite likely that a majority of Everett/Tik votes, as well as a majority of most other candidates votes, would transfer to Colin Wixted/Jas, though I could easily see some transfers from Brandon to Preston if such a situation occured based upon data that I have collected.

I would consider Colin most ideologically close to Afleitch. So I am surprised that most of Colin's supporters have the least support for Afleitch.

I noticed that too. I thought Colins interpretation was a strong one though.

Well I have been watching elections, as well as interpreting polling data and taking polls, in Atlasia for almost three years now. The basic features of the Atlasian political landscape really don't change that much and the same problems seem to always beset candidates of the centre, left, and right.

[King]

Interesting results, although this poll didn't count me. Put me down as undecided...All I know is that I'm not voting for Preston. The other three tickets do intrigue.

[minionofmidas]

Upon further review of the figures, I think the Preston/Speed ticket have a decent to good chance to win if they could get second place over Colin/Jas. I foresee all of those  who support Everett/Tik going for Preston, and in addition to them, at least half of the moderate Colin/Jas voters.

Well, no. If you haven't seemed to notice a full 63% of people second preferenced the Colin Wixted/Jas ticket. That would mean that it is quite likely that a majority of Everett/Tik votes, as well as a majority of most other candidates votes, would transfer to Colin Wixted/Jas, though I could easily see some transfers from Brandon to Preston if such a situation occured based upon data that I have collected.

Is it possible to count out what the results of the election would be based on your poll, ie does the software give you every single replicant(?)'s full answers?

[Colin]

Upon further review of the figures, I think the Preston/Speed ticket have a decent to good chance to win if they could get second place over Colin/Jas. I foresee all of those  who support Everett/Tik going for Preston, and in addition to them, at least half of the moderate Colin/Jas voters.

Well, no. If you haven't seemed to notice a full 63% of people second preferenced the Colin Wixted/Jas ticket. That would mean that it is quite likely that a majority of Everett/Tik votes, as well as a majority of most other candidates votes, would transfer to Colin Wixted/Jas, though I could easily see some transfers from Brandon to Preston if such a situation occured based upon data that I have collected.

Is it possible to count out what the results of the election would be based on your poll, ie does the software give you every single replicant(?)'s full answers?

No it's not. I could do this if I paid the $9.99 or $19.99 for a premium membership but I'm pretty damn cheap so that probably wont be happening.