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| | |-+  2004 U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderator: True Federalist)
| | | |-+  Why didn't John Kerry get a post-convention bounce?
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Author Topic: Why didn't John Kerry get a post-convention bounce?  (Read 9901 times)
Sasquatch
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« on: February 19, 2010, 06:33:15 pm »
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Reasons?
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Bo
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« Reply #1 on: February 19, 2010, 06:45:18 pm »
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Swift-boating?
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Sasquatch
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« Reply #2 on: February 19, 2010, 08:05:28 pm »
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Swift-boating?
I remember that happening around the GOP convention though...that was about a month after the Democratic convention.
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« Reply #3 on: February 19, 2010, 08:08:40 pm »
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Swift-boating?
I remember that happening around the GOP convention though...that was about a month after the Democratic convention.

Well I guess Kerry was just a bad candidate. Also Bush probably already began scaring people about Kerry beign weak on terrorism.
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phk
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« Reply #4 on: February 19, 2010, 09:40:43 pm »
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Didn't he get a minor bounce? Like +2
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pragmatic liberal
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« Reply #5 on: February 20, 2010, 11:16:45 pm »
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Actually, I remember at the time, a few pollsters speculated it was because (a) the VP pick had been made over three weeks earlier and (b) Kerry was already polling at a high point of about 5-6 points ahead. So he was already maxing out in the polls and the convention couldn't push him much higher.
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Derek
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« Reply #6 on: April 05, 2010, 12:01:17 pm »
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He was a terrible candidate and no one watched his conventions. Bugs Bunny cartoons got better ratings and he took no clear stance on the issues.
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« Reply #7 on: April 12, 2010, 07:05:00 pm »
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His speech was actually quite good but his delivery was a bit off. The Edwards speech was a disappointment though.
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memphis
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« Reply #8 on: April 12, 2010, 07:44:18 pm »
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The DNC wasn't nearly entertaining enough. The RNC, on the other hand, was infotainment gold. The production qualities were light years aparts.
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I cannot do anything good under my own power. 
I will get up and move around every now and then so I reduce the chances to get hit with another Grade 8 headache in the morning.
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« Reply #9 on: April 12, 2010, 08:24:28 pm »
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The DNC wasn't nearly entertaining enough. The RNC, on the other hand, was infotainment gold. The production qualities were light years aparts.

Thankfully, the Dems caught up and then some by 2008.
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fezzyfestoon
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« Reply #10 on: April 12, 2010, 10:02:12 pm »
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No one cared.
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phk
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« Reply #11 on: April 13, 2010, 12:46:59 pm »
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No one cared.
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Derek
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« Reply #12 on: April 20, 2010, 04:51:49 pm »
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Hats off to Dick Morris and the Republicans who predicted a 15 point bounce for Kerry which made a 3 point bounce look pathetic. I also liked it when Republicans in the senate screwed with him by delaying a vote on veterans' benefits that summer til he left town and flew back to his campaign trail which caused him to miss a vote on such an important issue for a veteran. Of course that was picture day too and so the public perception was very bad lol.
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justW353
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« Reply #13 on: April 24, 2010, 10:09:59 pm »
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Hats off to Dick Morris and the Republicans who predicted a 15 point bounce for Kerry which made a 3 point bounce look pathetic. I also liked it when Republicans in the senate screwed with him by delaying a vote on veterans' benefits that summer til he left town and flew back to his campaign trail which caused him to miss a vote on such an important issue for a veteran. Of course that was picture day too and so the public perception was very bad lol.

Oh yeah, politics is funny...Denying VA coverage is funny...
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So a lack of knowledge means I'm not welcome here? I've always wondered why there's a lack of Republicans on this forum and now I'm beginning to see why.
Derek
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« Reply #14 on: April 26, 2010, 01:45:47 pm »
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In case you weren't aware, the current benefits didn't expire for several more months and they didn't need his vote to pass. It went through 96 or 98-0 to my recollection. In the 24 hour period that the bill might have been delayed, no one would've gone without benefits.
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« Reply #15 on: April 26, 2010, 05:07:04 pm »
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There aren't always bounces, Kerry was going to stay close to Bush which he did until election regardless, he was never going to have a substantial lead over Bush eventhough he had a lead during the campaign season.
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12th Doctor
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« Reply #16 on: April 26, 2010, 05:13:26 pm »
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1) Most people had already made up their minds about who to vote for (or against, as the case might be).  The 2004 Election probably featured the fewest undecideds at that point in the race than any other election in U.S. history.

2) Did you watch the convention?  Regardless of which side you were for, John Kerry doesn't energize people, and neither did the Democrats.  They really had no message, other than being opposed to Bush, and a crappy messenger to boot.  If so many people had not already decided to oppose Bush, regardless, then the election never would have been close.  At the same token. if the Democrats hadn't fielded someone who was arguably the worst Presidential candidate in history (Mondale and McGovern never had a chance, and at least Goldwater went down fighting for something, and created a movement... no one will remember Kerry for anything in 50 years), Bush never would have made it to a second term.
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Derek
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« Reply #17 on: April 27, 2010, 02:42:50 pm »
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This is great! I'm starting a new thread about worst candidates in MODERN history since 1952.

1. Walter Mondale
2. Michael Dukakis
3. John Kerry
4. Bob Dole
5. George McGovern
6. Jimmy Carter

You are right about Barry Goldwater. He led to the Reagan Revolution which has made conservatism mainstream.
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cpeeks
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« Reply #18 on: June 16, 2010, 08:15:22 am »
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The electorate was very polarized Bush didnt get a bounce either. And Dole wasnt a bad candidate he was about the best the GOP had that yea, and um Carter was elected President and had a lead going into the final days of 1980, so I wouldnt say he was bad either.
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Derek
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« Reply #19 on: June 16, 2010, 06:46:52 pm »
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The electorate was very polarized Bush didnt get a bounce either. And Dole wasnt a bad candidate he was about the best the GOP had that yea, and um Carter was elected President and had a lead going into the final days of 1980, so I wouldnt say he was bad either.

I remember Bush taking a 16 point lead after his convention when Kerry fell into the 30's.
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Bo
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« Reply #20 on: June 16, 2010, 07:33:31 pm »
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This is great! I'm starting a new thread about worst candidates in MODERN history since 1952.

1. Walter Mondale
2. Michael Dukakis
3. John Kerry
4. Bob Dole
5. George McGovern
6. Jimmy Carter

You are right about Barry Goldwater. He led to the Reagan Revolution which has made conservatism mainstream.

You forgot Al Gore. He was running in a much more favorable environment than Kerry was.
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Derek
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« Reply #21 on: June 16, 2010, 09:54:52 pm »
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This is great! I'm starting a new thread about worst candidates in MODERN history since 1952.

1. Walter Mondale
2. Michael Dukakis
3. John Kerry
4. Bob Dole
5. George McGovern
6. Jimmy Carter

You are right about Barry Goldwater. He led to the Reagan Revolution which has made conservatism mainstream.

You forgot Al Gore. He was running in a much more favorable environment than Kerry was.

I'll tell you what sometimes I do want to put Gore as the third worst behind Mondale and Dukakis.
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Bo
Rochambeau
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« Reply #22 on: June 16, 2010, 10:30:13 pm »
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This is great! I'm starting a new thread about worst candidates in MODERN history since 1952.

1. Walter Mondale
2. Michael Dukakis
3. John Kerry
4. Bob Dole
5. George McGovern
6. Jimmy Carter

You are right about Barry Goldwater. He led to the Reagan Revolution which has made conservatism mainstream.

You forgot Al Gore. He was running in a much more favorable environment than Kerry was.

I'll tell you what sometimes I do want to put Gore as the third worst behind Mondale and Dukakis.

I would even put Gore above Mondale and Dukakis. Mondale never had a chance, Dukakis did have a chance but the issues in 1988 (good economy+Reagan's popularity+no foreign wars) favored Bush Sr. In 2000, the issues (good economy+lack of foreign threats+Clinton's popularity) favored Gore, but Gore still blew the election.
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Derek
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« Reply #23 on: June 17, 2010, 11:49:15 pm »
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This is great! I'm starting a new thread about worst candidates in MODERN history since 1952.

1. Walter Mondale
2. Michael Dukakis
3. John Kerry
4. Bob Dole
5. George McGovern
6. Jimmy Carter

You are right about Barry Goldwater. He led to the Reagan Revolution which has made conservatism mainstream.

You forgot Al Gore. He was running in a much more favorable environment than Kerry was.

I'll tell you what sometimes I do want to put Gore as the third worst behind Mondale and Dukakis.

I would even put Gore above Mondale and Dukakis. Mondale never had a chance, Dukakis did have a chance but the issues in 1988 (good economy+Reagan's popularity+no foreign wars) favored Bush Sr. In 2000, the issues (good economy+lack of foreign threats+Clinton's popularity) favored Gore, but Gore still blew the election.

LOL he did find every way to lose that he could. He stopped campaigning in Ohio shortly after Labor Day because he was down by double digits and came within the margin of error anyways. The gun issue cost him his home state of TN, Clinton's home state of AR, and WV which had been a Massachusetts type of reliability for that party until 2000. I sometimes wonder if it would've been close at all without Clinton's popularity.
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cpeeks
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« Reply #24 on: June 18, 2010, 09:15:10 am »
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The electorate was very polarized Bush didnt get a bounce either. And Dole wasnt a bad candidate he was about the best the GOP had that yea, and um Carter was elected President and had a lead going into the final days of 1980, so I wouldnt say he was bad either.

I remember Bush taking a 16 point lead after his convention when Kerry fell into the 30's.

The biggest lead Bush ever had was about 9 points at it evaporated over night when Kerry slaughtered Bush in that first debate over foreign policy and Iraq. That debate put Kerry back in the race. If had been anybody else that year besides Kerry running, Bush would have lost by double digits.
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