Will Latinos Eventually Become A Majority in the U.S.?

[Bo]

Also, will Latinos remain in the majority in the long run if they ever become a majority?

[Californian Tony]

Maybe in the 2840 census they will become a majority, and they will cease to be in the 3450 census due to heavy Martian immigration.

[Bo]

Maybe in the 2840 census they will become a majority, and they will cease to be in the 3450 census due to heavy Martian immigration.

haha. But I was asking a serious question. Latinos were 13% of the population in 2000, are about 15% now, and are projected to be 30% in 2050. It's possible that they eventually become a majority if there remains enough immigration from Latin America after 2050, which I'm not too sure about as Latin America will probably be much more developed than it is now.

[BushArizona]

A lot of Latinos are white anyway.

[Swedish Cheese]

"Latinos" will be counted as whites anytime before that happens. 

[Bo]

"Latinos" will be counted as whites anytime before that happens. 

I know that many Latinos self-identify as white but could you please answer the question in the context I asked it in?

[Gravis Marketing]

Immigration isn't an infinite source of people because birth rates in Latin America, like in most of the world, have dropped toward replacement level and perhaps lower. I'd say the answer is no, but more importantly, that the concept of Latinos as a distinct minority separate from Anglos by a shining line will fade within a decent amount of time. It already has for many people.

[dead0man]

As asked, no, not possible.  If you're asking will hispanics ever make up a majority of white folk, well no, that isn't going to happen either.  At least not anytime in the next 100 years.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Immigration isn't an infinite source of people because birth rates in Latin America, like in most of the world, have dropped toward replacement level and perhaps lower. I'd say the answer is no, but more importantly, that the concept of Latinos as a distinct minority separate from Anglos by a shining line will fade within a decent amount of time. It already has for many people.

yeah I tend to agree here. Latino identity will lose most of its current meaning in another 2 or 3 generations: Jews and Italians weren't considered white 100 years ago, and Irish weren't considered white 150 years ago.

[Ghyl Tarvoke]

By then there would have been far too much inbreeding for the distinction to be meaningful (if indeed the distinction is meaningful now).

[Vasall des Midas]

The Census definition of "Hispanic" (including South American Whites as well as the Indigenas and Mestizos you usually think of) is purpose-built to be as encompassing as possible. It's also not a racial category, but a separate question. It asks you only if you have Hispanic ancestry, not how much of it. Nor if you speak Spanish.
So... if we're assuming current trends - of intermarriage as well as immigration - to continue, and if we - rather more spuriously - assume people to answer the Census truthfully, and the Census question to not get changed eventually, the answer is "yes but it won't mean a thing".

[Bo]

As asked, no, not possible.  If you're asking will hispanics ever make up a majority of white folk, well no, that isn't going to happen either.  At least not anytime in the next 100 years.

I'm asking if Latinos will become a majority (as in 50.01% or more) of the U.S. population at anytime in the future.

[ag]

I don't think the question is well-posed. If the question is, would, at some point, most Americans have at least one ancestor coming from Latin America, then the answer is "not impossible". However, most of those "latinos" would have most of their ancestors hailing from other parts of the world. If the quesion is, would there, at some point, be a situation in which most of US citizens self-identify as something called "latinos", the answer is "extraordinarily unlikely".

Immigrants from Latin America assimilate pretty fast and are not an obvious homogenous racial group. The visible subgroup are the recent migrants or else those with particular assimilation difficulties, but they are not really indicative of the long-term dynamics. A third-generation Latino is as much a latino as a third-generation Italian is an Italian and a third-generation Irish is an Irish: all of them are infinitely more American, then anything else. Of course, as long as there some advantages to being identified as a Latino, any Jack Cohen, whose grandmother grew up in Mexico City will make sure to claim that ancestry. Trust me, when it's my daughter's turn to go to grad, school she will definitely claim to be both Latino and Jewish to the appropriate funding sources - even though, to be sure, neither myself nor my wife are really either. So what?

[Bo]

I don't think the question is well-posed. If the question is, would, at some point, most Americans have at least one ancestor coming from Latin America, then the answer is "not impossible". However, most of those "latinos" would have most of their ancestors hailing from other parts of the world. If the quesion is, would there, at some point, be a situation in which most of US citizens self-identify as something called "latinos", the answer is "extraordinarily unlikely".

Immigrants from Latin America assimilate pretty fast and are not an obvious homogenous racial group. The visible subgroup are the recent migrants or else those with particular assimilation difficulties, but they are not really indicative of the long-term dynamics. A third-generation Latino is as much a latino as a third-generation Italian is an Italian and a third-generation Irish is an Irish: all of them are infinitely more American, then anything else. Of course, as long as there some advantages to being identified as a Latino, any Jack Cohen, whose grandmother grew up in Mexico City will make sure to claim that ancestry. Trust me, when it's my daughter's turn to go to grad, school she will definitely claim to be both Latino and Jewish to the appropriate funding sources - even though, to be sure, neither myself nor my wife are really either. So what?

So you're ethnically Jewish, but you're not very religious? I get your point, BTW.

[The Hype]

Hopefully.

[dead0man]

As asked, no, not possible.  If you're asking will hispanics ever make up a majority of white folk, well no, that isn't going to happen either.  At least not anytime in the next 100 years.

I'm asking if Latinos will become a majority (as in 50.01% or more) of the U.S. population at anytime in the future.

Not likely.  Here the US Census predicted in 2008 that Hispanics will triple by 2050 and still only be at 30% of the population.  Non-Hispanic whites will still make up 46%.  Obviously these numbers are guesses and are likely to not be 100% accurate, but are still probably pretty good guesses.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Does anyone have stats on the % of American-born Latinos who speak Spanish at home? Historically, assimilation usually occurs within three generations, and Latinos seem to be following the same path of assimilation that other groups of immigrants have followed. The only significant differences are the proximity of Latin America and the presence of indigenous, older than the United States Spanish-speaking populations in places like New Mexico and San Antonio.

[Vasall des Midas]

28 million people over the age of five speak Spanish at home (exclusively or alongside English) - including about three million people who did not identify as "Hispanics" (against 7 millions who speak only English at home but did).

More data on language use and ability to speak English:

http://www.census.gov/population/www/cen2000/briefs/phc-t37/index.html

Although I note the "American-born" in your post... will look a little further.

[Vasall des Midas]

Of this Census 2000 Spanish speaking population, almost 15 million were Native born. 6 Million arrived in the 90s, 4 Million in the 80s, 800,000 before 1965. 3.8mio were naturalized citizens.

Oh, and of that total Hispanic population of 31 million, 60% (about 18.5 million) were US born. (I think all those figures excluded Puerto Rico, though maybe one table with PR in it got in and messes up the figures.)

Now, what we'd need is a better grip at who these nonhispanic Spanish speakers are. A lot of them are probably lily white first and second generation immigrants from South America. But a lot are also probably people who've learned Spanish in school but are too dumb to grasp the concept of "spoken at home". (And some are people married to Hispanics.)

[Stranger in a strange land]

Now, what we'd need is a better grip at who these nonhispanic Spanish speakers are. A lot of them are probably lily white first and second generation immigrants from South America. But a lot are also probably people who've learned Spanish in school but are too dumb to grasp the concept of "spoken at home". (And some are people married to Hispanics.)

My maternal grandmother was probably an example of the type you're referring to: she was born in the Dominican Republic, but never identified as Hispanic or Latino (though I don't think the latter term existed during her lifetime) even though she spoke Spanish at home her entire life. The fact she was partially of Lebanese origin may have been a factor. Some people just don't want to identify as Latino for whatever reason.

[Vasall des Midas]

Now, what we'd need is a better grip at who these nonhispanic Spanish speakers are. A lot of them are probably lily white first and second generation immigrants from South America. But a lot are also probably people who've learned Spanish in school but are too dumb to grasp the concept of "spoken at home". (And some are people married to Hispanics.)

My maternal grandmother was probably an example of the type you're referring to: she was born in the Dominican Republic, but never identified as Hispanic or Latino (though I don't think the latter term existed during her lifetime) even though she spoke Spanish at home her entire life. The fact she was partially of Lebanese origin may have been a factor. Some people just don't want to identify as Latino for whatever reason.

Yeah. Similarly the actress whose image I linked earlier in this thread was born in the US of a mother born in Mexico... but with a French surname... and a father born in Argentina... to parents (her grandparents) born in Denmark. That said Spanish was her mothertongue.

[J. J.]

Well people of Latino ancestry ever become a majority in the US?  Yes.

Will Latinos ever become a majority in the US?  No.

[The Head Beagle]

Now, what we'd need is a better grip at who these nonhispanic Spanish speakers are. A lot of them are probably lily white first and second generation immigrants from South America. But a lot are also probably people who've learned Spanish in school but are too dumb to grasp the concept of "spoken at home". (And some are people married to Hispanics.)

My maternal grandmother was probably an example of the type you're referring to: she was born in the Dominican Republic, but never identified as Hispanic or Latino (though I don't think the latter term existed during her lifetime) even though she spoke Spanish at home her entire life. The fact she was partially of Lebanese origin may have been a factor. Some people just don't want to identify as Latino for whatever reason.

Yeah. Similarly the actress whose image I linked earlier in this thread was born in the US of a mother born in Mexico... but with a French surname... and a father born in Argentina... to parents (her grandparents) born in Denmark. That said Spanish was her mothertongue.

Put it this way: if a bunch of English-speaking (though not necessarily ancestrally British) Americans immigrated to France and were asked on the census if they were of "Anglo-Saxon or English" origin, do you think all of them would say yes? Roughly the same reasons apply here: the term "Hispanic" isn't used in Latin America to mean "anyone who speaks Spanish".

[Vasall des Midas]

Well, duh. The term isn't used in Latin America full stop.

[dead0man]

Well, duh. The term isn't used in Latin America full stop.

It's not used in much of this part of America (as in the non-Latin third, not as in the USofA) either.  That's why most of us have been saying "hispanic" over and over.  I know it's a regional thing, but to my ear, "latino" is to hispanic, what "colored" is to black, or "oriental" is to asian.