arizona.

[WalterMitty]

here is an interesting tidbit from an exit poll taken during the 2000 election in arizona:

of the people who had moved to arizona since 1990, bush won  52-42.

people who have lived in arizona since before 1990, gore won 49-47.

i didnt know that transplants to arizona tend to be republican.  where are the coming from?  the midwest?

[zachman]

I figured it would be just the opposite.

Is there similar data from Nevada?

[WalterMitty]

in nevada, bush won the people who had moved there since 1990 52-44.

bush also won the people who have lived there since before 90, 48-46.

i dont think many hispanics that moved to both of these states since 90 voted in the election.  if they did, you would probably have different results.

[California Dreamer]

is there a source?

[WalterMitty]

http://www.abcnews.go.com/sections/politics/2000vote/general/exitpoll_hub.html

[opebo]

here is an interesting tidbit from an exit poll taken during the 2000 election in arizona:

of the people who had moved to arizona since 1990, bush won  52-42.

people who have lived in arizona since before 1990, gore won 49-47.

i didnt know that transplants to arizona tend to be republican.  where are the coming from?  the midwest?

They're Republicans escaping the liberal nightmare of California.  No, just kidding, I think a lot of Californians move to Nevada, but most Arizona newcomers do come from the midwest.  
Of course I'm talking about the non-hispanics.

[opebo]

Anyway your statistics make AZ and NV seem even more likely to be solid Bush - as I think they are.

[zachman]

The exit polls in Nevada show that Bush won by more than he actually did. Remember Bush only won by 20,000 votes and an estimated 300-400 thousand more people have moved to Nevada since 2000. Arizona is a more uphill battle.

[opebo]

The exit polls in Nevada show that Bush won by more than he actually did. Remember Bush only won by 20,000 votes and an estimated 300-400 thousand more people have moved to Nevada since 2000. Arizona is a more uphill battle.

Yeah but the point is that the material posted above suggests that the more newly arrived are actually more Republican than the longer termed residents in these two states.

[angus]

People come and go.  If you can afford to get out of the rustbelt and you want to, then you probably do.  Leave behind the poorest among you.  Urban centers in the upper midwest and new england and the middle atlantic form socialpolitical crucibles in which a more DNC-friendly sample is left behind.
 
Urban Nevada, which is all of Nevada since it's pretty much empty and desolate (the antithesis of, say, connecticut) feels like nice proving ground for the GOP, even among those who moved there Democrats.  Just from my observation.  But prove themselves they must, because it isn't bedrock Republican.  Any analysis of Nevada is made difficult by the fact that only 40% of the voting-age population actually votes here.  This probably favors the Republicans, but LV is a mix of old & rich and young & hip.  People come for many reasons; often life's losers come for the glamour, and sometimes they stay.  Reno has a festive quality (in the san francisco sense) and could prove hostile to re-election if, for example, the Bush people make too bold a move to codify marriage.  It's a small town, but represents about ten percent of the state population.  The rest of the state is Bush Country.

The idealism of those who move to Arizona is an individualistic one.  Clean air and low taxes.  Business-friendly.  No quakers, no shakers.  Lots of high-spirited cowboys with a long day's work and an appetite for steaks and whores.  Arizona is Bush Country.  No need to waste money in this part of the sunbelt.

[opebo]

Yeah Angus, its an incredibly empty state - the whole West is - I just flew over CA, and I think parts of AZ and NV and it looked like Mars out the window.

[angus]

Welcome home prodigal son.

[angus]

Look, if you live in Brooklyn, you worry about who's going to pick your garbage up.  You worry about guns and gang violence.  You get mad when your neighbor turns his stereo up too loud.  Social services are important enough to spend money on.  And you don't want your sons and daughters mixed up with the 'wrong crowd.'

If you live in Colorado, that edge gets taken off.  You can burn your trash.  And you need your guns because the nearest cops are fifty miles away.  You begin to think a man ought to be able to smoke a joint in his own back yard and bring a whore home from the bar if he wants.  And you can turn your stereo up as loud as you want.  There is no 'wrong crowd'  In fact, there's no 'crowd' at all.

It doesn't matter where you move from, but if you're moving to the Great American West, it doesn't take long to become a Republican.  Ever notice how they always say 'back' east and 'out' west.  There's a reason for that.  

[dunn]

Look, if you live in Brooklyn, you worry about who's going to pick your garbage up.  You worry about guns and gang violence.  You get mad when your neighbor turns his stereo up too loud.  Social services are important enough to spend money on.  And you don't want your sons and daughters mixed up with the 'wrong crowd.'

If you live in Colorado, that edge gets taken off.  You can burn your trash.  And you need your guns because the nearest cops are fifty miles away.  You begin to think a man ought to be able to smoke a joint in his own back yard and bring a whore home from the bar if he wants.  And you can turn your stereo up as loud as you want.  There is no 'wrong crowd'  In fact, there's no 'crowd' at all.

It doesn't matter where you move from, but if you're moving to the Great American West, it doesn't take long to become a Republican.  Ever notice how they always say 'back' east and 'out' west.  There's a reason for that.  

isn't LA or Okland just like Brooklyn?

[Gustaf]

What about Colorado?

I'd say Colorado anbd Arizona are pretty similar. I think they both lean Bush, but less so than people think.

[angus]

Look, if you live in Brooklyn, you worry about who's going to pick your garbage up.  You worry about guns and gang violence.  You get mad when your neighbor turns his stereo up too loud.  Social services are important enough to spend money on.  And you don't want your sons and daughters mixed up with the 'wrong crowd.'

If you live in Colorado, that edge gets taken off.  You can burn your trash.  And you need your guns because the nearest cops are fifty miles away.  You begin to think a man ought to be able to smoke a joint in his own back yard and bring a whore home from the bar if he wants.  And you can turn your stereo up as loud as you want.  There is no 'wrong crowd'  In fact, there's no 'crowd' at all.

It doesn't matter where you move from, but if you're moving to the Great American West, it doesn't take long to become a Republican.  Ever notice how they always say 'back' east and 'out' west.  There's a reason for that.  

isn't LA or Okland just like Brooklyn?

Exactly.

[dunn]

Look, if you live in Brooklyn, you worry about who's going to pick your garbage up.  You worry about guns and gang violence.  You get mad when your neighbor turns his stereo up too loud.  Social services are important enough to spend money on.  And you don't want your sons and daughters mixed up with the 'wrong crowd.'

If you live in Colorado, that edge gets taken off.  You can burn your trash.  And you need your guns because the nearest cops are fifty miles away.  You begin to think a man ought to be able to smoke a joint in his own back yard and bring a whore home from the bar if he wants.  And you can turn your stereo up as loud as you want.  There is no 'wrong crowd'  In fact, there's no 'crowd' at all.

It doesn't matter where you move from, but if you're moving to the Great American West, it doesn't take long to become a Republican.  Ever notice how they always say 'back' east and 'out' west.  There's a reason for that.  

isn't LA or Okland just like Brooklyn?

Exactly.

so? the west is not the west, it's the midwest

[angus]

Okay, now your going to yank my chain?  I'll assume, for the moment, that you're being serious.  What I typed is what I have observed.  Makes sense to me.  The West is the West.  Yet, in maps which color Bush Country in one color and Gore Country in another, there's this odd anomaly along a very thin slice along the coast.  Usually, not a continuous band, but more of a dotted line.  Check out Dave's 2000 county map.  You astutely point out LA and Oakland, as if to add an exclamation point to what I typed earlier.  As if to agree, but with the following exception that proves the rule, sort of.  Clear?

[dunn]

Okay, now your going to yank my chain?  I'll assume, for the moment, that you're being serious.  What I typed is what I have observed.  Makes sense to me.  The West is the West.  Yet, in maps which color Bush Country in one color and Gore Country in another, there's this odd anomaly along a very thin slice along the coast.  Usually, not a continuous band, but more of a dotted line.  Check out Dave's 2000 county map.  You astutely point out LA and Oakland, as if to add an exclamation point to what I typed earlier.  As if to agree, but with the following exception that proves the rule, sort of.  Clear?

I was kidding man

[CTguy]

That comment above about New England being Democrat friendly because the rich people move out and leave behind the poor is totally innacurate.  Connecticut consistently ranks at one of the two richest states in the country and most of the other new england states are right up there.  There is no class-warfare issue up here, the reason democrats always win is because of social issues like abortion, gay rights, gun control, civil rights.

[angus]

Thanks.  No, you misinterpreted.   It was my fault.  I had a serious visual of connecticut green (as opposed to Las Vegas beige).  That particular sentence did not refer to voting proclivities, but climatic differences.  My apologies.

The statement stands.  The 'urban centers' to which I refer are those with which you are probably familiar.  For example, while most of CT is filthy rich, you must know Hartford is pretty much Harlem in the middle of a golf-course.

[classical liberal]

Interestingly enough: the people who benefit most from conservative policies are the most liberal and vice versa; e.x. poor Midwestern/Southern Republicans and rich New England/West Coast Democrats.

[WalterMitty]

civil rights is a big issue up in connecticut?  

let's be honest, outside of hartford, the black population of connecticut is pretty darn low.  folks in the wealthy suburbs of nyc dont give a hoot about civil rights.  sure, if you call them up and take a poll they will say they are concerned about it, but they will also say they are concerned about the environment while they are driving around in their suvs.

[dazzleman]

civil rights is a big issue up in connecticut?  

let's be honest, outside of hartford, the black population of connecticut is pretty darn low.  folks in the wealthy suburbs of nyc dont give a hoot about civil rights.  sure, if you call them up and take a poll they will say they are concerned about it, but they will also say they are concerned about the environment while they are driving around in their suvs.

Very true.  There are lots of hypocritical liberals here.