No President has been reelected with over 6% unemployment

[Mr.Phips]

With the exceptions of Ronald Reagan in 1984 and FDR in 1936.  FDR and Reagan were both transformative Presidents who changed the political landscape by passing programs that linked many voters to them and their parties for years to come.  They are the exceptions here.

Here are the unemployment rates at reelection time for every President reelected since 1948.

2004, Bush(R):  5.4%
1996, Clinton(D):  5.4%
1984, Reagan(R):  7.2%
1972, Nixon(R):  5.3%
1964, Johnson(D):  4.8%
1956, Eisenhowr(R):  4.3%
1948, Truman(D):  3.8%

Average:  5.2%

Unless Obama can pass healthcare reform, which would link many new voters to him and the Democratic party as Social Security and public works programs did for FDR and tax cuts did for Reagan, he will not be reelected unless unemployment falls below 6% in the next two years. 

[Smash255]

With the exceptions of Ronald Reagan in 1984 and FDR in 1936.  FDR and Reagan were both transformative Presidents who changed the political landscape by passing programs that linked many voters to them and their parties for years to come.  They are the exceptions here.

Here are the unemployment rates at reelection time for every President reelected since 1948.

2004, Bush(R):  5.4%
1996, Clinton(D):  5.4%
1984, Reagan(R):  7.2%
1972, Nixon(R):  5.3%
1964, Johnson(D):  4.8%
1956, Eisenhowr(R):  4.3%
1948, Truman(D):  3.8%

Average:  5.2%

Unless Obama can pass healthcare reform, which would link many new voters to him and the Democratic party as Social Security and public works programs did for FDR and tax cuts did for Reagan, he will not be reelected unless unemployment falls below 6% in the next two years. 

I agree passing healthcare reform is important, but suggesting if healthcare isn't passed he is doomed if unemployment isn't below 6% is a little far fetched.  One caveat you leave out is the unemployment rate when those Presidents all took office. 

The BLS site doesn't show where it was in 45 when Truman took over following FDR's death, but in the cases of Ike, Johnson, Nixon and Bush the unemployment rate was under 6% for all of them when they took over.  In  fact for Ike, Nixon and Bush it was below 4%.  Unemployment for Reagan was pretty much where it was when he took over, went up during his first two years, declined the next to, ending up basically where it started off.  So out of all of those you listed that were reelected with unemployment under 6%, Clinton was the only one who took over with unemployment above that figure.

[Bo]

The title of your thread is misleading. BTW, just like Reagan can say he inherited an economic mess from Carter and FDR can say he inherited an economic mess from Hoover, Obama can say that he inherited an economic mess from Bush Jr. If unemployment is 8.0% or lower on election day and is consistenly decreasing, Obama will get reelected.

[Mr.Phips]

The title of your thread is misleading. BTW, just like Reagan can say he inherited an economic mess from Carter and FDR can say he inherited an economic mess from Hoover, Obama can say that he inherited an economic mess from Bush Jr. If unemployment is 8.0% or lower on election day and is consistenly decreasing, Obama will get reelected.

If people bought that he inherited the bad economy from Bush, then why is he having so much trouble in polls right now?

[Bo]

The title of your thread is misleading. BTW, just like Reagan can say he inherited an economic mess from Carter and FDR can say he inherited an economic mess from Hoover, Obama can say that he inherited an economic mess from Bush Jr. If unemployment is 8.0% or lower on election day and is consistenly decreasing, Obama will get reelected.

If people bought that he inherited the bad economy from Bush, then why is he having so much trouble in polls right now?

That wasn't my point. My point was that if the economy is sluggish but recovering in 2012, Obama should be fine, just like FDR and Reagan before him. The economy isn't recovering much right now (in terms of jobs) and thus Obama is currently having trouble in the polls.

[Mr.Phips]

The title of your thread is misleading. BTW, just like Reagan can say he inherited an economic mess from Carter and FDR can say he inherited an economic mess from Hoover, Obama can say that he inherited an economic mess from Bush Jr. If unemployment is 8.0% or lower on election day and is consistenly decreasing, Obama will get reelected.

If people bought that he inherited the bad economy from Bush, then why is he having so much trouble in polls right now?

That wasn't my point. My point was that if the economy is sluggish but recovering in 2012, Obama should be fine, just like FDR and Reagan before him. The economy isn't recovering much right now (in terms of jobs) and thus Obama is currently having trouble in the polls.

The economy was sluggish, but recovering in 1992 and that didnt help Bush 41.  Same with Ford in 1976. 

[Smash255]

The title of your thread is misleading. BTW, just like Reagan can say he inherited an economic mess from Carter and FDR can say he inherited an economic mess from Hoover, Obama can say that he inherited an economic mess from Bush Jr. If unemployment is 8.0% or lower on election day and is consistenly decreasing, Obama will get reelected.

If people bought that he inherited the bad economy from Bush, then why is he having so much trouble in polls right now?

That wasn't my point. My point was that if the economy is sluggish but recovering in 2012, Obama should be fine, just like FDR and Reagan before him. The economy isn't recovering much right now (in terms of jobs) and thus Obama is currently having trouble in the polls.

The economy was sluggish, but recovering in 1992 and that didnt help Bush 41.  Same with Ford in 1976. 

In both cases unemployment was quite a bit higher than it was when Ford and Bush took office.  Also, while unemployment was down from the peak for both, it was much closer to the peak of unemployment than it was when they took office.  For example, the unemployment rate just before Election Day in 1976, was down 1.3 points from its peak a year earlier, but was still 2.2 points higher then it was when Ford took office in August 74.  Not to mention Ford had to deal with the whole Nixon fiasco and backlash. 

In Bush's case the peak of unemployment came during the summer of 1992, the numbers heading into Election Day 92 were only a couple tenths lower than the peak of the Unemployment rate.   It was also 2.2 points higher than when he took office.

[Mr.Phips]

The title of your thread is misleading. BTW, just like Reagan can say he inherited an economic mess from Carter and FDR can say he inherited an economic mess from Hoover, Obama can say that he inherited an economic mess from Bush Jr. If unemployment is 8.0% or lower on election day and is consistenly decreasing, Obama will get reelected.

If people bought that he inherited the bad economy from Bush, then why is he having so much trouble in polls right now?

That wasn't my point. My point was that if the economy is sluggish but recovering in 2012, Obama should be fine, just like FDR and Reagan before him. The economy isn't recovering much right now (in terms of jobs) and thus Obama is currently having trouble in the polls.

The economy was sluggish, but recovering in 1992 and that didnt help Bush 41.  Same with Ford in 1976. 

In both cases unemployment was quite a bit higher than it was when Ford and Bush took office.  Also, while unemployment was down from the peak for both, it was much closer to the peak of unemployment than it was when they took office.  For example, the unemployment rate just before Election Day in 1976, was down 1.3 points from its peak a year earlier, but was still 2.2 points higher then it was when Ford took office in August 74.  Not to mention Ford had to deal with the whole Nixon fiasco and backlash. 

In Bush's case the peak of unemployment came during the summer of 1992, the numbers heading into Election Day 92 were only a couple tenths lower than the peak of the Unemployment rate.   It was also 2.2 points higher than when he took office.

Hmm, maybe I should have also said that no President has been reelected with a higher unemployment rate than they were first elected with.  But that wouldnt apply for George W. Bush, who saw the uenmployment rate rise by around 1.3 points. 

[k-onmmunist]

Obama shan't be re-elected. The healthcare fiasco will shoot him down.

[Bo]

Obama shan't be re-elected. The healthcare fiasco will shoot him down.

That's what they said about Clinton.

[Mr.Phips]

Obama shan't be re-elected. The healthcare fiasco will shoot him down.

That's what they said about Clinton.

That's not true at all.  Many thought he would likely get reelected anyway because the economy was so strong.  Obama doesnt have that luxury.

[Smash255]

Obama shan't be re-elected. The healthcare fiasco will shoot him down.

That's what they said about Clinton.

That's not true at all.  Many thought he would likely get reelected anyway because the economy was so strong.  Obama doesnt have that luxury.

Regardless that 6% figure is something you completely pulled out of your ass and doesn't take into consideration the rate when they each took over.

[memphis]

Except for two of the biggest landslides ever. Right.

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

If we get DOWN to 6%, Obama will be crowned King.

[Lief 🗽]

Except for two of the biggest landslides ever. Right.

^^^^^

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Weren't there a gazillion indicators that had Bush's re-election as totally doomed?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

He will win with 300 electoral votes, that is still good in these type of conditions. He can still win CO, IA,NM, and OH but the others are in question.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Unless Obama can pass healthcare reform, which would link many new voters to him and the Democratic party as Social Security and public works programs did for FDR and tax cuts did for Reagan, he will not be reelected unless unemployment falls below 6% in the next two years. 

dang, ya'll are delusional

If Obamacare does pass, it's almost certain Obama is going to lose in 2012 (unless the GOP has a weak candidate, which might be the case).  Obamacare is 10 years of taxes to pay for 6 years of benefits - it's all pain and more pain with no benefits until 2014. 

The Republican part of me wishes Obamacare would pass.  The American and Taxpayer part of me wishes Obamacare will be voted down.

The only reason Dems have bottomed out in polls is because Scott Brown's victory scratched the itch of the public's anger.  But if Obamacare passes, many of the GOP big names are going to step up as Senate candidates for the 2010 Senate election cycle and all hell is going to break loose at the Dems expense.

If Obamacare passes, look for the GOP to gain control of both houses of Congress and shut the budgetary process down in 2011 and 2012 in name of repealing Obamacare...and then 2012 will become a referendum to repeal Obamacare.

It's a nightmare scenario for Dems in 2010 and 2012....but if Obamacare goes down in flames, the Dems may only lose 5 more seats in 2010 and Obama will have an even chance at reelection in 2012.