If the GOP wins Congress in 2010, is Obama more or less likely to be re-elected?

[Derek]

Bush was reelected unlike his dad. Obama will be voted out unlike Clinton.

[Mjh]

One must consider that it is generally very difficult to oust a sitting president. You need a top-tier contender (like Reagan and Clinton), and at least a somewhat favourable political environment (like 1980 and 1992).
If the GOP nominates an extremeist (like Santorum) or a moron (Palin), then Obama will win hands down, regardless of wheter the Republicans controll Congress, assuming that unemployment isn't 15%, or Joe Biden is revealed as a child- molester.

[Derek]

Not true about unemployment. If unemployment isn't below 7.5%, Obama is toast. Anyone could beat him whether it's Romney or Tom Delay. Also, don't underestimate the GOP's ability to make ads stating that our tax dollars should go toward defeating the terrorists and not towards their defense attorneys.

[Dan the Roman]

Not true about unemployment. If unemployment isn't below 7.5%, Obama is toast. Anyone could beat him whether it's Romney or Tom Delay. Also, don't underestimate the GOP's ability to make ads stating that our tax dollars should go toward defeating the terrorists and not towards their defense attorneys.

There are factors in existance beyond Obama. The question may well be undivided control of the national government by the GOP given the high prospect the GOP would take the senate in 2012. That gurrantees Obama 46% and probably close to 152(MA,NY,VT,RI,DC,MD,CA,WA) electoral votes regardless of economic conditions. To be fair though, this issue is probably weakest with someone like Romney. On  the otherhand, against someone like Palin, well, if Obama converted to Islam tomorrow he would still have difficulty dropping below 200 or so electoral votes.

[Mr.Phips]

1. I would disagree for several reasons. For one in 1996 Bob Dole was the Senate Majority Leader. In 2012 the GOP nominee will likely be a Governor (Romney, Pawlenty, or Palin with a dark horse in Mitch Daniels).

2. The economy picked up rapidly in 1996 with March alone adding 700,000 jobs. Will the economy be growing that strong in 2012, I have my doubts . I think Unemployement will still be above 8% and thats if their isn't a double dip recession.

3. If the GOP gets congress, their will be a budget battle in like in 1995. Last time the GOP blew it. With the media in the Dems pocket the chance of winning the propaganda campaign is low but if they stay on message they will do better then Gingrich did and Obama might end up being the one conceeding defeat.

4. Its all about momentum with regards to obstruction. The GOP could claim they have it based on midterm win and thus Obama is the obstructionist. Considering the wide shift from -7 to 4 or so needed to win the majority back would be a double digit shift in the GOP favor.

5. Obama can't shift like Clinton did because the base would abandon him and primary him. The Truman approach is less palatable cosnidering that the country has moved much further to the right since the 40's. With independents having shifted heavilly to the GOP, that could actually destroy him. The path for him is not going to be very clear for Obama going forward, no where near as clear as it was for Clinton. So he will need to split the difference in which case he make get the worst of both worlds.

Also, I hear Dick Morris is more interested in destroying Obama then helping. lol

I dont think Obama wants Dick Morris' "help".  Morris is a complete idiot who, if anything, stopped Clinton from getting 50% and kept Democrats from winning back the House with his strategy to have Clinton cave to Republicans.  This kept core Democratic voters from turning out in full force and made Republicans look competent to independent voters. 

[pbrower2a]

Not true about unemployment. If unemployment isn't below 7.5%, Obama is toast. Anyone could beat him whether it's Romney or Tom Delay. Also, don't underestimate the GOP's ability to make ads stating that our tax dollars should go toward defeating the terrorists and not towards their defense attorneys.

I can see one way in which Obama wins with unemployment above 7.5% -- and that is in a postwar retrenchment of the economy in which the economy goes from heavy war production to peacetime production. Such would not be his fault.

Of course I know that the GOP can come up with appeals to a false patriotism in which people take offense at the idea that terrorists deserve defense lawyers. Does that imply the "need" for a kangaroo court, a Soviet-style troika, or a lynching?


Khalid Sheikh Mohammed will have been tried and sentenced before November 2012. As a strict rule I do not predict the outcome of jury trials.

The Israelis paid for the cost of a defense attorney for Adolf Eichmann and for bullet-proof glass around his cage in the courtroom. Is any anti-American terrorist accused of anything as bad as Eichmann was convicted of?

I think that whether the Democrats maintain or lose control of the House and/or Senate, President Obama will have a good campaign machine behind it and strong campaign ads. if the Republicans gain control of one or the other (more likely the House), then he will run against what he will present as a "do-nothing Congress". 

 

[Mr.Phips]

Not true about unemployment. If unemployment isn't below 7.5%, Obama is toast. Anyone could beat him whether it's Romney or Tom Delay. Also, don't underestimate the GOP's ability to make ads stating that our tax dollars should go toward defeating the terrorists and not towards their defense attorneys.

I can see one way in which Obama wins with unemployment above 7.5% -- and that is in a postwar retrenchment of the economy in which the economy goes from heavy war production to peacetime production. Such would not be his fault.

Of course I know that the GOP can come up with appeals to a false patriotism in which people take offense at the idea that terrorists deserve defense lawyers. Does that imply the "need" for a kangaroo court, a Soviet-style troika, or a lynching?


Khalid Sheikh Mohammed will have been tried and sentenced before November 2012. As a strict rule I do not predict the outcome of jury trials.

The Israelis paid for the cost of a defense attorney for Adolf Eichmann and for bullet-proof glass around his cage in the courtroom. Is any anti-American terrorist accused of anything as bad as Eichmann was convicted of?

I think that whether the Democrats maintain or lose control of the House and/or Senate, President Obama will have a good campaign machine behind it and strong campaign ads. if the Republicans gain control of one or the other (more likely the House), then he will run against what he will present as a "do-nothing Congress". 

 

The only President ever reelected with unemployment over 7.5% was FDR and he was able to do so because he passed legislation like public works, the WPA, and Social Security that linked millions of previously dissaffected voters to him and the Democrats.  Obama may be able to that with healthcare, but that is his only shot. 

[A dog on every car, a car in every elevator]

Stick to at-least somewhat reasonable premises like "If the Democrats 75 vote edge in the House is trimmed to 35 and their 18 seat edge in the senate is trimmed to 8, how does it affect Obama's chances at re-election?".   Republicans would be in a much better position to obstruct but the public would possibly be wise to it and punish them more than the president in '12.  On the other hand, if Democrats can't sell the message that Republican obstruction is the big problem this November, they may be too poor at communicating to do so 2 years later.