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Author Topic: PA/Quinnipiac: Specter comes back to life  (Read 4064 times)
JohnnyLongtorso
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« on: March 02, 2010, 08:48:36 am »
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http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1327.xml?ReleaseID=1428

Arlen Specter (D) - 49
Pat Toomey (R) - 42

Pat Toomey (R) - 39
Joe Sestak (D) - 36

Primary:

Arlen Specter - 53
Joe Sestak  - 29

Still time to jump back into your House seat, Joe...
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Senator Libertas
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« Reply #1 on: March 02, 2010, 08:50:34 am »
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Still weak numbers for a five-term incumbent.
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Assemblyman & Queen Mum Inks.LWC
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« Reply #2 on: March 02, 2010, 10:03:26 am »
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Database entry: http://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2010/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=42320100228015
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« Reply #3 on: March 02, 2010, 12:49:03 pm »
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Could Snarlin Arlen survive this race?
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« Reply #4 on: March 02, 2010, 12:50:02 pm »
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Good, but still, one poll doesn't make a trend.
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Devilman88
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« Reply #5 on: March 02, 2010, 02:02:31 pm »
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I don't believe this poll, I have to see another one that says he is ahead. (not saying it not true.)
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TheGlobalizer
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« Reply #6 on: March 02, 2010, 02:06:43 pm »
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Quinni seems to have these weird outlier polls from time to time.

I suspect it's still a tossup to marginal lean Toomey.
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« Reply #7 on: March 02, 2010, 03:44:16 pm »
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Can anyone come up with a possible rationale behind a Specter surge?
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« Reply #8 on: March 02, 2010, 04:05:12 pm »
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Specter already beaten Toomey in 2006 and he certainly have the same issues that he ran against Specter in, in that year. Plus, Specter isn't an ideologue and except for environmental and immigration policies he doesn't vote to bust the budget, like other ideologues do.  He is a moderate Dem and people are content.

As for another poll, I'm pretty sure R2K poll will come out with one soon.
« Last Edit: March 02, 2010, 04:07:19 pm by WEB Dubois »Logged
Devilman88
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« Reply #9 on: March 02, 2010, 04:17:48 pm »
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Specter already beaten Toomey in 2006 and he certainly have the same issues that he ran against Specter in, in that year. Plus, Specter isn't an ideologue and except for environmental and immigration policies he doesn't vote to bust the budget, like other ideologues do.  He is a moderate Dem and people are content.

As for another poll, I'm pretty sure R2K poll will come out with one soon.

I don't believe R2k polls more then I believe uni polls.
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« Reply #10 on: March 02, 2010, 04:21:19 pm »
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Can anyone come up with a possible rationale behind a Specter surge?

Perhaps Pennsylvanians have started to take a closer look at Toomey.
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J. J.
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« Reply #11 on: March 02, 2010, 04:27:05 pm »
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In terms of uni polls F & M is probably the best for PA, but that also showed a slight lead for Specter.
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« Reply #12 on: March 02, 2010, 05:56:36 pm »
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Can anyone come up with a possible rationale behind a Specter surge?

Perhaps Pennsylvanians have started to take a closer look at Toomey.

Actually his name ID is LOWER in this poll than in the previous polls of the race. Seems like Q got a sample that doesn't know who Toomey is which could inflate Specter's numbers.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #13 on: March 02, 2010, 06:10:42 pm »
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Everyone please keep in mind that both of Specter's opponents have little name recognition, which will change soon. Honestly, I think Specter will have a harder time in the Democratic primary than he will in the General. Sestak just needs to get busy.
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« Reply #14 on: March 02, 2010, 06:18:07 pm »
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Toomey lost 2004 GOP primary because he was too conservative, even for republicans. He won't win the race. If he lost a Republican primary to specter, he won't be able to win independent and D vote.
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« Reply #15 on: March 02, 2010, 06:38:24 pm »
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Toomey lost 2004 GOP primary because he was too conservative, even for republicans. He won't win the race. If he lost a Republican primary to specter, he won't be able to win independent and D vote.

But there are a lot of Dems and Indies that don't particularly feel like pulling Arlen's bacon out of the fire.  He's not exactly a beloved figure by any stretch of the imagination, and I could totally see the disheartened Dem vote sitting on their hands and not voting this year.  (Of course, Arlen Specter is the ultimate survivor, so I'm not counting him out by any means)
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« Reply #16 on: March 02, 2010, 10:29:31 pm »
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Toomey lost 2004 GOP primary because he was too conservative, even for republicans. He won't win the race. If he lost a Republican primary to specter, he won't be able to win independent and D vote.

What? Toomey wasn't the incumbent. Bush, Santorum and the entire GOP establishment backed Specter up to the max and Specter still only got 51% of the vote in a primary. To say he couldn't win the primary because he was too conservative. No. He couldn't win the 2004 primary because he faced a long term incumbent with very high establishment backing. You are using some pretty flawed logic there.

You know little about Pennsylvania. For one there are a lot of Democrats out West that are finished with Specter and have been for some time and will thus pull the lever for Toomey. Keep in mind that their is still a GOP primary between Toomey and Luksik who is ever further to the right. This has actually allowed Toomey to move to center somewhat since its a none competative primary but Toomey still has someone on his right making him look a little less right wing. Also this environment is different from 2004 and provides Toomey with a much better chance. Also Corbett will be winning a big landslide for Governor which helps Toomey by boasting Republican and western turnout.
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jfern
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« Reply #17 on: March 02, 2010, 10:31:22 pm »
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Toomey has a 96 lifetime ACU rating. Compare to 88 for Santorum. So it's not too surprising that he would do only 11 points better than Santorum did in 2006.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #18 on: March 02, 2010, 10:36:45 pm »
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Everyone please keep in mind that both of Specter's opponents have little name recognition, which will change soon. Honestly, I think Specter will have a harder time in the Democratic primary than he will in the General. Sestak just needs to get busy.

Not exactly a lot of time left.
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« Reply #19 on: March 03, 2010, 09:27:56 am »
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Everyone please keep in mind that both of Specter's opponents have little name recognition, which will change soon. Honestly, I think Specter will have a harder time in the Democratic primary than he will in the General. Sestak just needs to get busy.

Not exactly a lot of time left.

Sestak is known to be a rough boss who goes through assistants like Kleenex. He's relying heavily on family members to run his campaign. These are not good signs.

He has all the hallmarks of looking good on paper, terrible in execution.
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« Reply #20 on: March 03, 2010, 11:29:41 am »
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If Specter wins, a significant problem for Democrats in this race will be enthusiasm. On the top of the ticket, you'll have a Republican candidate for Governor whose race looks to be surprisingly uncompetitive. Just down from there, you have a Republican-turned-Democrat who a significant portion of Democrats (rightfully) do not trust.

Republicans are already going to be more motivated than Democrats to show up at the polls, so Pennsylvania could be one of those really gloomy spots for Democrats across the board.
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JulioMadrid
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« Reply #21 on: March 03, 2010, 05:35:01 pm »
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A former president of the club for growth won't win a election in any democrat state. And Pennsylvania voted for the D's candidate for president in 1992, 1996, 2000, 2004 and 2008.
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My evolution (by The Political Matrix):
E: -6.06 -> -6.97 -> -6.97 -> -8.13 -> -7.29 -> -8.26 -> -8.65 -> -7.03
S: -6.78 -> -6.09 -> -7.30 -> -7.13 -> -8.09 -> -8.35 -> -9.04 -> -8.61
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« Reply #22 on: March 09, 2010, 08:05:01 pm »
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Toomey lost 2004 GOP primary because he was too conservative, even for republicans. He won't win the race. If he lost a Republican primary to specter, he won't be able to win independent and D vote.

Yeah, except for the fact that just about every other poll besides this one shows Toomey with a pretty decent lead over Specter.

Oh, and when Toomey ran against Specter in 2004, the margin of Specter's victory was only slightly over 1%.

I used to live in Pennsylvania and I assure you, Toomey can very much win this race and likely will.
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ScottM
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« Reply #23 on: March 09, 2010, 08:55:47 pm »
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I'm a bit skeptical of this poll, too, since it's so far removed from all the other polls on this race. As for the suggestion of an R2K poll, I ignore those regardless of what they say.

I can't agree with the suggestion that Toomey can't win, either. Specter really had a lot of anger stirred up against him during the town hall meetings. I think Toomey could quite easily make some very effective ads from some of those videos.
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Vepres
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« Reply #24 on: March 09, 2010, 09:08:37 pm »
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Back to life? Night of the living Senators!
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LOL, Failure

Alright, if Republicans gain less than 75 seats, I'll prominently display my failure in my signature.
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