If (when) health care passes - how does it effect the midterms for Democrats?

[Torie]

When do young people start paying higher premiums than they do now to build the war chest for the big spending dump to subsidize sick old folks down the road?  When that happens, the sh**t will hit the fan. If the GOP handles this right, they could get back a big chunk of the youth vote is my opinion.

The GOP is never going to give up old people for the young.  Remember their open embrace of socialism with the Medicare Part D expansion?

Maybe, but I tend to doubt it. If I were a young person, I would ask myself, why should I be asked to pay a disproportionate part of this subsidy, rather than it being paid for by taxpayers at large?  Would not you?  It is not as if young folks are loaded with cash as it were, in general.

The ski resort vote has been the single most dramatic cohort swing to the Dems, as a geographical matter. It has been massive. Look for the GOP to make a big comeback in these pockets is my guess if this goes through. The GOP will take back Mono County!

[Sasquatch]

It doesn't kick in until 2013 anyway, right?

You can tell people you passed something, but people want results they can see. This whole health care debate just stinks and has for awhile now. But the real reason Democrats will lose in 2010 is because of the economy.


No great effect.

[Sbane]

When do young people start paying higher premiums than they do now to build the war chest for the big spending dump to subsidize sick old folks down the road?  When that happens, the sh**t will hit the fan. If the GOP handles this right, they could get back a big chunk of the youth vote is my opinion.

The GOP is never going to give up old people for the young.  Remember their open embrace of socialism with the Medicare Part D expansion?

Maybe, but I tend to doubt it. If I were a young person, I would ask myself, why should I be asked to pay a disproportionate part of this subsidy, rather than it being paid for by taxpayers at large?  Would not you?  It is not as if young folks are loaded with cash as it were, in general.

The ski resort vote has been the single most dramatic cohort swing to the Dems, as a geographical matter. It has been massive. Look for the GOP to make a big comeback in these pockets is my guess if this goes through. The GOP will take back Mono County!

Wouldn't the youngs be one of the biggest beneficiaries of these subsidies? I suspect those with the least to gain will be the 30-45 age group.

[opebo]

Maybe, but I tend to doubt it. If I were a young person, I would ask myself, why should I be asked to pay a disproportionate part of this subsidy, rather than it being paid for by taxpayers at large?  Would not you?  It is not as if young folks are loaded with cash as it were, in general.

The ski resort vote has been the single most dramatic cohort swing to the Dems, as a geographical matter. It has been massive. Look for the GOP to make a big comeback in these pockets is my guess if this goes through. The GOP will take back Mono County!

Of course the fact that every callow youth will become a sick old (at best) is not relevant given their stupidity, but it is relevant that these are not one-issue voters or in fact voters much at all. 

[Torie]

When do young people start paying higher premiums than they do now to build the war chest for the big spending dump to subsidize sick old folks down the road?  When that happens, the sh**t will hit the fan. If the GOP handles this right, they could get back a big chunk of the youth vote is my opinion.

The GOP is never going to give up old people for the young.  Remember their open embrace of socialism with the Medicare Part D expansion?

Maybe, but I tend to doubt it. If I were a young person, I would ask myself, why should I be asked to pay a disproportionate part of this subsidy, rather than it being paid for by taxpayers at large?  Would not you?  It is not as if young folks are loaded with cash as it were, in general.

The ski resort vote has been the single most dramatic cohort swing to the Dems, as a geographical matter. It has been massive. Look for the GOP to make a big comeback in these pockets is my guess if this goes through. The GOP will take back Mono County!

Wouldn't the youngs be one of the biggest beneficiaries of these subsidies? I suspect those with the least to gain will be the 30-45 age group.

No, unless they are at the bottom of the income scale. They will just pay $220 a month rather than $80 a month or something. And I think that kicks in pretty quickly. Well that is for folks say up to 35. Over that, both numbers would go higher.

[opebo]

No, unless they are at the bottom of the income scale. They will just pay $220 a month rather than $80 a month or something. And I think that kicks in pretty quickly. Well that is for folks say up to 35. Over that, both numbers would go higher.

Very very few young people make more than the barest subsistence.  I'll wager $15-25,000/year is the norm.

[Sbane]

When do young people start paying higher premiums than they do now to build the war chest for the big spending dump to subsidize sick old folks down the road?  When that happens, the sh**t will hit the fan. If the GOP handles this right, they could get back a big chunk of the youth vote is my opinion.

The GOP is never going to give up old people for the young.  Remember their open embrace of socialism with the Medicare Part D expansion?

Maybe, but I tend to doubt it. If I were a young person, I would ask myself, why should I be asked to pay a disproportionate part of this subsidy, rather than it being paid for by taxpayers at large?  Would not you?  It is not as if young folks are loaded with cash as it were, in general.

The ski resort vote has been the single most dramatic cohort swing to the Dems, as a geographical matter. It has been massive. Look for the GOP to make a big comeback in these pockets is my guess if this goes through. The GOP will take back Mono County!

Wouldn't the youngs be one of the biggest beneficiaries of these subsidies? I suspect those with the least to gain will be the 30-45 age group.

No, unless they are at the bottom of the income scale. They will just pay $220 a month rather than $80 a month or something. And I think that kicks in pretty quickly. Well that is for folks say up to 35. Over that, both numbers would go higher.

And if their payment goes above a certain percentage of their income, they get a subsidy right? I suspect us in California and other high cost states are going to get hit hard, as usual. 30-40k does not get you much around here, and yet those making that might not get a subsidy. Oh well. Youngs in other states will be paid less of course and will be benefited more by the subsidy. You might be overestimating how much my generation makes, not to mention half of them are unemployed currently. These days you at least need a master's to guarantee yourself a good job.

That being said, paying $220 now for health insurance in exchange for decently cheap insurance when I am old, sick and most in need of help seems like a good tradeoff to me. Now of course there are a lot of shortsighted people out there who probably don't think about the fact they will be old someday. I would suspect they already vote Republican though. Republican policies usually are better in the short term and so these people are attracted to those ideas. At least that's how it is with the current GOP.

Edit: So what is the jump from 80 to 220 based on? How much is the corresponding decrease at the top? If there isn't a decrease, then why do we keep giving more money to the insurance companies? That's the ed up part about health care reform, either ways the insurance companies win. Passing a bill might be better because it guarantees you health care when in need, but I bet the insurance companies will be able to overcharge us the rest of the time. Ugh.

[SvenssonRS]

Improve, but not enough to save Reid's ass. Maybe just enough for them to shove Portman and Blunt out of the picture in OH and MO.

[ARescan]

What will get passed is a pissy excuse of a bill. They will lose alot of seats.