Gore/McCain counties & Bush/Kerry/McCain counties

[Ebowed]

Gore (2000) & McCain (2008)

NY: Montgomery, Richmond
NJ: Monmouth
PA: Mercer, Lawrence, Beaver, Washington, Greene, Fayette
MD: Somerset
VA: Buchanan, Dickenson, Russell, Southampton
WV: Brooke, Harrison, Kanawha, Fayette, Lincoln, Logan, Mingo, Wyoming
KY: Fulton, Ballard, Muhlenberg, Franklin, Boyd, Breathitt, Perry, Knott, Floyd, Pike, Letcher, Harlan
TN: Lake, Lauderdale, Crockett, Gibson, Henry, Stewart, Humphreys, Benton, Decatur, Perry, Hickman, Lewis, Dickson, Robertson, Giles, Marshall, Bedford, Franklin, Marion, Grundy, Warren, Van Buren, Cannon, DeKalb, White, Smith, Trousdale, Overton, Clay, Campbell
NC: Columbus, Chowan, Tyrrell
GA: McIntosh, Mitchell, Wilkinson, Webster
FL: Hernando, Pasco
AL: Jackson, Lawrence, Colbert, Choctaw, Conecuh, Barbour
MS: Benton
LA: Bienville, Pointe Coupee, St. Landry, West Baton Rouge, Assumption
AR: Little River, Hempstead, Lafayette, Nevada, Clark, Ouachita, Dallas, Hot Spring, Lincoln, Drew, Ashley, Bradley, Monroe, Cross, Jackson, Poinsett, Mississippi, Craighead, Lawrence, Greene, Clay, Randolph, Izard
MO: Clay, Ray, Saline, Missisippi, New Madrid, Pemiscot
IL: Perry, Franklin
IN: Scott
OH: Clark
OK: Ottowa, Cherokee, Muskogee, Okmulgee, McIntosh, Haskell, Latimer, Hughes, Choctaw
TX: Morris, Newton, Robertson

Bush (2000) & Kerry (2004) & McCain (2008)

KY: Carter, Bath, Magoffin

[phk]

No real surprises would have expected the bulk to come from TN and AR.

[segwaystyle2012]

No real surprises would have expected the bulk to come from TN and AR.

What's with the NY and NJ counties?

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

Bush won the Gore/McCain NY and NJ counties in 2004.

[segwaystyle2012]

Bush won the Gore/McCain NY and NJ counties in 2004.

Might it be population loss in those counties that changed them over the last decade?

I am not too familiar with NY politics despite having lived there for a short while.

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

Bush won the Gore/McCain NY and NJ counties in 2004.

Might it be population loss in those counties that changed them over the last decade?

I am not too familiar with NY politics despite having lived there for a short while.

That's definitely not the case for Richmond County, NY, which alone has a growing population larger than many small cities. It's voted Republican in every election since 1944 except 1964, 1996, and 2000.

[segwaystyle2012]

Bush won the Gore/McCain NY and NJ counties in 2004.

Might it be population loss in those counties that changed them over the last decade?

I am not too familiar with NY politics despite having lived there for a short while.

That's definitely not the case for Richmond County, NY, which alone has a growing population larger than many small cities. It's voted Republican in every election since 1944 except 1964, 1996, and 2000.

Why 2000 though? I know Gore did extremely well in NY but still...

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

Bush won the Gore/McCain NY and NJ counties in 2004.

Might it be population loss in those counties that changed them over the last decade?

I am not too familiar with NY politics despite having lived there for a short while.

That's definitely not the case for Richmond County, NY, which alone has a growing population larger than many small cities. It's voted Republican in every election since 1944 except 1964, 1996, and 2000.

Why 2000 though? I know Gore did extremely well in NY but still...

Well the "moderate" impression of the Clinton-Gore administration that delivered Richmond County to the Dems in 96 might have carried it again for Gore in 2000. I know many people felt that the economy was doing well and wanted to stay the course with Gore. When the "war on terror" was a big issue four years later, Bush got quite a bounce throughout the NYC area.

As for Montgomery County, that's a sparsely populated upstate county that voted for Dukakis in 1988 but then apparently trended Republican in the 2000s.

Ironically Hillary Clinton lost both of the NY Gore-McCain counties in her 2000 U.S. Senate race.

[cinyc]

Bush won the Gore/McCain NY and NJ counties in 2004.

Might it be population loss in those counties that changed them over the last decade?

I am not too familiar with NY politics despite having lived there for a short while.

That's definitely not the case for Richmond County, NY, which alone has a growing population larger than many small cities. It's voted Republican in every election since 1944 except 1964, 1996, and 2000.

It's not true for Monmouth County, NJ, either, which is a growing suburb/exurb of NYC.

Montgomery County, NY is fairly small (just under 50,000) and losing a bit of population.  It's a largely rural county between Albany and Utica.

[phk]

Bush won the Gore/McCain NY and NJ counties in 2004.

Might it be population loss in those counties that changed them over the last decade?

I am not too familiar with NY politics despite having lived there for a short while.

That's definitely not the case for Richmond County, NY, which alone has a growing population larger than many small cities. It's voted Republican in every election since 1944 except 1964, 1996, and 2000.

Why 2000 though? I know Gore did extremely well in NY but still...

Well the "moderate" impression of the Clinton-Gore administration that delivered Richmond County to the Dems in 96 might have carried it again for Gore in 2000. I know many people felt that the economy was doing well and wanted to stay the course with Gore. When the "war on terror" was a big issue four years later, Bush got quite a bounce throughout the NYC area.

As for Montgomery County, that's a sparsely populated upstate county that voted for Dukakis in 1988 but then apparently trended Republican in the 2000s.

Ironically Hillary Clinton lost both of the NY Gore-McCain counties in her 2000 U.S. Senate race.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=112446.0

There's been a decent trend for NY and NJ Whites from D to R from 2000 to 2008.

It's more the case of Bush horribly under performing in both NJ and NY in 2000.

[Ebowed]

Why 2000 though? I know Gore did extremely well in NY but still...

Gun control may have resonated with voters in these NY/NJ counties.  Most basically I would posit that Bill Clinton was just extremely popular in the Northeast so Al Gore was quite a good candidate there in 2000.

Any ideas on these KY counties that swung against Gore, back to Kerry, and then right back to the GOP?  They are all close to Elliott county, which if you will notice is by itself in voting for Gore but surrounded by like minded counties in voting for Kerry and Obama.  Really strange.

[segwaystyle2012]

Why 2000 though? I know Gore did extremely well in NY but still...

Gun control may have resonated with voters in these NY/NJ counties.  Most basically I would posit that Bill Clinton was just extremely popular in the Northeast so Al Gore was quite a good candidate there in 2000.

Any ideas on these KY counties that swung against Gore, back to Kerry, and then right back to the GOP?  They are all close to Elliott county, which if you will notice is by itself in voting for Gore but surrounded by like minded counties in voting for Kerry and Obama.  Really strange.

Similarly, I'd put my chips toward gun control. Kerry didn't emphasize gun control nearly as much as Gore tried to.

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

Why 2000 though? I know Gore did extremely well in NY but still...

Gun control may have resonated with voters in these NY/NJ counties.  Most basically I would posit that Bill Clinton was just extremely popular in the Northeast so Al Gore was quite a good candidate there in 2000.

Any ideas on these KY counties that swung against Gore, back to Kerry, and then right back to the GOP?  They are all close to Elliott county, which if you will notice is by itself in voting for Gore but surrounded by like minded counties in voting for Kerry and Obama.  Really strange.

I really don't see gun control as being that significant an issue to cause such swings.

[Ebowed]

I really don't see gun control as being that significant an issue to cause such swings.

If you need further proof, also look at WV in 2000.

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

I really don't see gun control as being that significant an issue to cause such swings.

If you need further proof, also look at WV in 2000.

Guns are not much of a big issue in Richmond County, NY; certainly not comparable to WV.

[Ebowed]

Guns are not much of a big issue in Richmond County, NY; certainly not comparable to WV.

Is there any reason you say this?  If you look at areas throughout the Northeast you will find a pattern suggesting otherwise.  Incidentally, gun control is a huge issue in New York City, and you won't find many people on Staten Island clamoring on about their sacred Second Amendment rights.

Ocean County, New Jersey
Bush - 48.84%
Gore - 47.18%

McCain - 58.43%
Obama - 40.07%

Plymouth County, Massachusetts
Gore - 54.53%
Bush - 39.11%

Obama - 52.77%
McCain - 45.19%

Niagara County, New York
Gore - 51.23%
Bush - 43.91%

Obama - 49.65%
McCain - 48.65%

Nassau County, New York
Gore - 57.93%
Bush - 38.49%

Obama - 53.84%
McCain - 45.43%

Gore also holds the record for the highest percentage of the vote in Kings county.

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

Guns are not much of a big issue in Richmond County, NY; certainly not comparable to WV.

Is there any reason you say this?  If you look at areas throughout the Northeast you will find a pattern suggesting otherwise.  Incidentally, gun control is a huge issue in New York City, and you won't find many people on Staten Island clamoring on about their sacred Second Amendment rights.

Gore also holds the record for the highest percentage of the vote in Kings county.

Staten Island is not like the rest of NYC, in case it's voting history didn't make that clear. An issue like gun control would not be enough to make it flip from 52-45 Dem to 56-43 Repub.

[Nym90]

Any insight into the Bush/Kerry/McCain counties in Kentucky? Al?

They don't seem dramatically different from their neighbors, but maybe I'm missing something.

[Smash255]

Why 2000 though? I know Gore did extremely well in NY but still...

Gun control may have resonated with voters in these NY/NJ counties.  Most basically I would posit that Bill Clinton was just extremely popular in the Northeast so Al Gore was quite a good candidate there in 2000.

Any ideas on these KY counties that swung against Gore, back to Kerry, and then right back to the GOP?  They are all close to Elliott county, which if you will notice is by itself in voting for Gore but surrounded by like minded counties in voting for Kerry and Obama.  Really strange.

These were generally traditionally Democratic areas (though a little less so in Carter).  However, all three voted for Clinton twice and Dukakis.  Bath was Democratic in every race from 1940 to 1996 with the exceptions of the 72 & 84 landslides, Magoffin was Democratic in every election from 76 to 96.  Gun control probably hurt Gore in those areas in 2000, swung back a bit to its Democratic roots with Kerry in 2004 as Gun Control was less of an issue.  In 2008, swung back to the GOP because well a black guy running for President in Kentucky.  Hillary would have won all three, in fact she won the Primary in a landslide in all three (Bath 83%, Carter 87%, Magoffin 93%)

All in all though these areas didn't swing all that much.  Some of the margins were very close.  For example in Carter, Kerry only won by 1.39% in 2004.  McCain only won Bath County by 0.53% for a grand total of a 24 vote margin.   Magoffin was won by Kerry by 0.12% (7 votes).

So two of the Kerry victories, as well as one of the McCain victories were by very small margins.   The margins in all three counties were in the single digits for all three elections.