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Author Topic: Hungarian Parliamentary Elections 2010  (Read 5825 times)
Tender Branson
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« Reply #25 on: April 11, 2010, 08:50:30 am »
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Turnout @ 3pm:

46.78% (-2.11%)

Turnout in regions where Jobbik performed well in the 2009 EP elections is flat compared with 2006, while turnout in pro-Fidesz areas is down by some 2-3% and turnout in strong Socialist areas like Budapest is down by about 5%.
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« Reply #26 on: April 11, 2010, 09:58:26 am »
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SZDSZ stands for Szabad Demokraták Szövetsége, so SzDSz is the most correct way (like PdL is the correct way to abbreviate Il Popolo della Liberta in Italy).

SZDSZ themselves abbreviate it as 'SZDSZ' on their web site, not 'SzDSz'. However, if you use SzDSz, you should also write 'MSZP' as 'MSzP' since it stands for Magyar Szocialista Párt.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #27 on: April 11, 2010, 01:18:01 pm »
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Various exit polls predict the following:

Fidesz: 54-57%
MSZP: 19-20%
Jobbik: 15-17%
Greens: 5-6%
MDF: 3-4%

Don`t know though how good Hungarian exit polls are ...
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freek
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« Reply #28 on: April 11, 2010, 04:51:09 pm »
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Hungarian national television now gives as results (if I interpret it correctly with 99.1% counted):

Fidesz-KDNP - 52.77% / 206 seats
MSZP - 19.30%  / 28 seats
Jobbik - 16.71% / 26 seats
LMP - 7.42% / 5 seats
MDF - 2.65% / 0 seats

Total: 265 seats.

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« Reply #29 on: April 11, 2010, 04:59:01 pm »
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All results can be found here:

http://index.hu/belfold/2010/valasztas/eredmenyek/egyeni/

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PASOK Leader Hashemite
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« Reply #30 on: April 11, 2010, 06:01:25 pm »

Hungarian national television now gives as results (if I interpret it correctly with 99.1% counted):

Fidesz-KDNP - 52.77% / 206 seats
MSZP - 19.30%  / 28 seats
Jobbik - 16.71% / 26 seats
LMP - 7.42% / 5 seats
MDF - 2.65% / 0 seats

Total: 265 seats.

There will be some runoffs in single-member seats in a few weeks, but I haven't checked all of those but it appears that Fidesz already has a 45-49% ground there. MSZP might manage to save a few seats in Budapest.

also, lol at Reuters at calling Fidesz centre-right. They're a bunch of opportunists with no platform except empty populism, and light nationalism. In fact, Fidesz said outright that it didn't promise anything this year. It basically ran on platitudes such as "we'll put crooks in jail, trust us" and "we'll create a million jobs, trust us" and won, but given the climate and how people still member that dirty scumbag Gyurcsány and his lies in 2006...  not too surprising.
« Last Edit: April 11, 2010, 06:04:59 pm by Viva la Lega Nord! »Logged

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« Reply #31 on: April 11, 2010, 06:14:36 pm »
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This is an immensely depressing result. I suppose it could have been worse... a lot worse. And nearly was.

Oh, and the MSzP did actually managed to lead in two Budapest constituencies; 19 and 20. If the boundaries on Adam Carr's site are still in use, they're just to the north of the city centre. Wonder what the runoffs will bring.
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« Reply #32 on: April 11, 2010, 06:38:39 pm »

Oh, and the MSzP did actually managed to lead in two Budapest constituencies; 19 and 20. If the boundaries on Adam Carr's site are still in use, they're just to the north of the city centre. Wonder what the runoffs will bring.

From a look at The Google, seems to be filled with Soviet-era ugly apartment buildings and a large railroad depot of some sort.
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« Reply #33 on: April 11, 2010, 08:24:15 pm »
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So, if I'm reading this right, they'll have ~80% of the seats?
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« Reply #34 on: April 11, 2010, 08:52:27 pm »

So, if I'm reading this right, they'll have ~80% of the seats?

Remember, there's a runoff (and I think the 58 national seats to equalize differences between the single-member result and PV).
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« Reply #35 on: April 11, 2010, 11:23:54 pm »
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It's properly abbreviated SZDSZ, FWIW.

SZDSZ stands for Szabad Demokraták Szövetsége, so SzDSz is the most correct way (like PdL is the correct way to abbreviate Il Popolo della Liberta in Italy).

Oh, yeah, confused them. My bad.
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« Reply #36 on: April 12, 2010, 12:21:23 am »
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It seems that Fidesz has won every constituency that was already decided in the 1st round.

They also lead in every constituency, except Budapest-13, when it comes to the run-off.

Results of Heves-03:

József Balázs (Fidesz): 39.3%
Magda Sándor (Socialists): 28.3%
Gábor Vona (Jobbik-leader): 26.1%
Lukács Zoltán (Greens): 6.3%

Not the best result for the Jobbik-leader, a few other Jobbik candidates managed to get about 31%.
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« Reply #37 on: April 12, 2010, 12:23:59 am »
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Remember, there's a runoff (and I think the 58 national seats to equalize differences between the single-member result and PV).

Yes. The 58 national seats can only be allocated after all the single-member results are known.
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PASOK Leader Hashemite
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« Reply #38 on: April 12, 2010, 06:48:25 am »

They also lead in every constituency, except Budapest-13, when it comes to the run-off.

Budapest 19 and 20 have MSZP leads by the first round.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #39 on: April 13, 2010, 12:32:44 am »
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They also lead in every constituency, except Budapest-13, when it comes to the run-off.

Budapest 19 and 20 have MSZP leads by the first round.

I´ve read the wrong column.

Budapest 20 is the only district with a MSZP lead (45-36).

In Budapest 19, the Fidesz candidate Péter Szalay is ahead of the MSZP candidate by 38-37.

http://www.valasztas.hu/dyn/pv10/outroot/vdin1/en/ejk0119.htm
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PASOK Leader Hashemite
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« Reply #40 on: April 25, 2010, 01:53:38 pm »

Runoff was today.

Turnout seems very low (50ish)

results with 92.67% in:

Fidesz 263
MSZP 59
Jobbik 47
LMP 16
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« Reply #41 on: April 25, 2010, 02:23:43 pm »

ok, so:

first round seats total:

Fidesz and allies 119 district, 87 list
MSZP 28 list
Jobbik 26 list
LMP 5 list

districts:

Fidesz and allies 173 (so 54 won in the runoff)
MSZP 2
Indies 1

National lists: Fidesz 3; Jobbik 21; LMP 11; MSZP 29
Regional lists: Fidesz 87; Jobbik 26; LMP 5; MSZP 28 (allocated R1)

Results:

Fidesz 263 (173 DS, 87 RL, 3 NL)
MSZP 59 (2 DS, 28 RL, 29 NL)
Jobbik 47 (0 DS, 26 RL, 21 NL)
LMP 16 (0 DS, 5 RL, 11 NL)
Independent 1 (1 DS, 0 RL, 0 NL)


Two-thirds majority line is 258.

Turnout at 17:30 was 41.89%, so turnout overall will be below 50%. But I think constituencies filled in the first round (which didn't vote today) count in their calculations, since it seems that turnout is up a lot in constituencies with a runoff, meaning that real turnout is heavier today. The results by constituency show that Jobbik's vote declined quasi-universally, sometimes by a big amount, over the first round, likely due to Jobbik voters staying home knowing that their party had no hope in the district seats and a pickup in turnout on the left, the MSZP doing a bit better than two weeks ago overall.
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