Hungarian Parliamentary Elections 2010

[Tender Branson]

Here`s an early look at our neighbour's April 11 & 25 elections.

The brand-new Szonda Ipsos poll shows:

Fidesz (Nationalist Conservatives): 57% (+15% compared with 2006 elections)
MSZP (Socialists): 20% (-23%)
Jobbik (Nazis): 17% (+15%)
LMP (Greens): 3% (+3%)
MDF (Conservatives): 1% (-4%)
SZDSZ (Liberals): 1% (-6%)
Others: 1% (nc)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hungarian_parliamentary_election,_2010

[Tender Branson]

What's the threshold?

5% and that`s why I´m hoping that the Socialists can gain a couple more points until the election to avoid Fidesz getting a constitution-changing 2/3 majority.

[Tender Branson]

wtf

Yeah, many working class people who voted for the Socialists are still quite pissed about former PM Ferenc Gyurcsány's "lies" and now they are switching to the Jobbik.

Also, Jobbik-leader Gábor Vona is one of the most trusted politicians right now in Hungary and I could also see them getting around 25% on election day, something we have seen ahead of the EU elections, where the Jobbik heavily underpolled compared with election day.

[Tender Branson]

President Sólyom signs Holocaust denial bill

President Laszlo Solyom on Wednesday signed a recent law on penalising Holocaust denial, a senior official of the president's office, told MTI.

Solyom signed the law since it does not contravene the Constitution, said Ferenc Kumin.

At the same time, Solyom said that adopting the law amid the campaign for the April general election had been inappropriate.

Parliament approved on February 22 an amendment to the Penal Code under which denial of the Holocaust in public is punishable by up to three years imprisonment.

The Alliance of Hungarian Jewish Communities (Mazsihisz) said in a statement that the approval of the law could be an important weapon in the fight against anti-Semitism and created the opportunity for the authorities to take action against groups posing a threat to a peaceful society.

The Hungarian anti-Fascist association (MEASZ) also welcomed Solyom's decision to sign the amendment to the penal code, while at the same time arguing that further amendments would be needed before human dignity is properly protected.

Main opposition party Fidesz said that it intended to draw up legislation after the general election which penalises sympathy expressed for the Nazi- and Communist-era crimes on equal terms, said MP Robert Repassy.

The Socialist-initiated amendment was adopted with 197 votes for, one against and 142 abstentions.

At the time, politicians supporting the legislation criticised deputies of the main opposition Fidesz for abstaining.

Leaders of the Jewish community Peter Feldmajer and Gusztav Zoltai as well as several Holocaust survivors attended the parliamentary session in which the law was passed, the last before the general election.

The bill was submitted by Attila Mesterhazy, prime minister candidate of the Socialist Party, on January 27, Holocaust Remembrance Day. He said at the time that legislative action was required because anti-Semitism and extremist, neo-Nazi ideologies were on the rise in Hungary.

http://www.politics.hu/20100311/president-solyom-signs-holocaust-denial-bill

Allegations of marital infidelity hit Jobbik chairman

Rumors have started to swirl around the private life of Jobbik Chairman Gábor Vona after someone claiming to have hacked his Hungarian social networking site IWIW profile posted images from the account as well as personal communications online. Now Magyar Hírlap, which for a while flirted with the far-right before coming back to support Fidesz, is reporting that Vona may have had an extramarital affair with Mariann Pogácsás (seen here with Vona at presumably some Magyar Gárda event), and possibly with others. Jobbik denied the allegations on their official media site barikad.hu, calling them forgeries and part of a campaign to discredit Vona by the "Socialist-Fidesz grand coalition." What remains to be seen, however, is if this story gets some legs or quickly dies down.

http://www.politics.hu/20100310/allegations-of-marital-infidelity-hit-jobbik-chairman

[Tender Branson]

Well, in the most recent poll published today, the Jobbik has already overtaken the Socialist Party for the first time and at Median they are at about 20% right now ...

[Tender Branson]

The average of the final 7 polls before the elections:

Fidesz: 60%
MSZP: 17%
Jobbik: 13%
LMP: 5%
MDF: 2%
Others: 3%

In the more recent polls, the Greens are now consistantly above the 5% treshold.

I think you will also have to add about 5-10% more to Jobbik on election day, because in the telephone polls Nazis don`t declare to the pollster that they are Nazis, but in the voting booth they do. Fidesz on the other hand should go down to about 55%, because of Jobbik.

[Tender Branson]

Centre-Right seen scoring big win in Hungary vote

BUDAPEST, April 11 (Reuters) - Hungarians vote on Sunday in an election centre-right Fidesz is expected to win by a landslide to oust the Socialists after eight years and secure a strong mandate to try to lift the economy out of recession.

The latest opinion polls showed Fidesz had 60-63 percent support among decided voters, putting it in a strong position to possibly gain a two-thirds majority in the next parliament to push through structural reforms.

Fidesz has campaigned on cutting taxes, creating jobs, and curbing red-tape and corruption, while supporting local firms.

"With a two-thirds majority Fidesz can change the constitution and therefore rewrite election rules and reshape the local political/administration system," Eurasia Group said in a note.

"A rapid reform push (starting in June/July) is exactly what market participants, the IMF, and the EU want and expect to see."

 The Socialists and far-right party Jobbik are seen running neck and neck in the vote, with the latest Median poll giving them both 17 percent among decided voters.

Nationalist Jobbik, which has capitalised on public anger over economic hardship and antagonism towards the Roma minority, may end up as the second biggest parliamentary force and some analysts said significant gains by Jobbik could cause unease among investors.

Deep reforms to downsize Hungary's local government sector and make its health care system and education more efficient are seen as paramount to Hungary's long term growth potential and the economy's competitiveness.

The country's economy contracted by 6.3 percent last year, while unemployment is running at 11.4 percent -- the highest since 1994 -- which has further increased public discontent over the past Socialist governments' spending cuts and tax hikes.

The last Socialist government led by technocrat Gordon Bajnai since April 2009 had to make painful budget cuts to keep the budget deficit at 4 percent of gross domestic product under a financing deal led by the International Monetary Fund.

The cuts helped stabilise Hungary's finances and regain investors' confidence but exacerbated the recession.

Many Hungarians now feel disappointed and no better off than 20 years ago, just after the communist regime collapsed.

"We need to fix what this (Socialist) government screwed up. The economy has tanked. We will vote for Fidesz, we believe they keep young people and entrepreneurs in mind," said Erika Aufmuth, 35, an entrepreneur.

"In the current political structure ... one must chose between bad and worse. I will still vote, not for something but against the last eight years (of Socialist rule)," said Fanni Sarkozy, 29, a pianist.

The fourth party seen winning enough support to get into parliament is the green liberal LMP.

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSLDE6390CS20100410

[Tender Branson]

My prediction:

Fidesz: 54%   
Jobbik: 19%
MSZP: 18%
LMP: 5%
MDF: 3%
Others: 1%

Turnout: 61%

Turnout reports and results can be found here:

http://www.valasztas.hu/en/parval2010/306/306_0_index.html

http://www.valasztas.hu/en/parval2010/298/298_0_index.html

[Tender Branson]

Turnout @ 1pm:

35.88% (-2.34% compared with 2006 elections)

I have to make a slight change to my turnout prediction, because I used 2nd round data of 2006 for my prediction, not 1st round data. 1st round turnout was about 4% higher than in the 2nd round.

Therefore I predict 65% turnout for today.

[Tender Branson]

Turnout @ 3pm:

46.78% (-2.11%)

Turnout in regions where Jobbik performed well in the 2009 EP elections is flat compared with 2006, while turnout in pro-Fidesz areas is down by some 2-3% and turnout in strong Socialist areas like Budapest is down by about 5%.

[Tender Branson]

Various exit polls predict the following:

Fidesz: 54-57%
MSZP: 19-20%
Jobbik: 15-17%
Greens: 5-6%
MDF: 3-4%

Don`t know though how good Hungarian exit polls are ...

[Tender Branson]

It seems that Fidesz has won every constituency that was already decided in the 1st round.

They also lead in every constituency, except Budapest-13, when it comes to the run-off.

Results of Heves-03:

József Balázs (Fidesz): 39.3%
Magda Sándor (Socialists): 28.3%
Gábor Vona (Jobbik-leader): 26.1%
Lukács Zoltán (Greens): 6.3%

Not the best result for the Jobbik-leader, a few other Jobbik candidates managed to get about 31%.

[Tender Branson]

They also lead in every constituency, except Budapest-13, when it comes to the run-off.

Budapest 19 and 20 have MSZP leads by the first round.

I´ve read the wrong column.

Budapest 20 is the only district with a MSZP lead (45-36).

In Budapest 19, the Fidesz candidate Péter Szalay is ahead of the MSZP candidate by 38-37.

http://www.valasztas.hu/dyn/pv10/outroot/vdin1/en/ejk0119.htm