Hungarian Parliamentary Elections 2010

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Jobbik (Nazis): 17% (+15%)

That's worrying.

Yeah, they even have their own SA-style militia.

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MSZP has been polling crap since 2006 or so.

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Austrians, rejoice! Whenever you are called 'racists' in the future you, at least, have an unbeatable comeback! Your neighbours to the east are objectively more racist than you, by far!

Slovakia also isn't much better. Fico is a left-leaning populist-fascist, and he's been providing a blank cheque to his openly fascist coalition partners to sprout their crap.

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3 seat predictions on April 7:

Nézőpont Intézet:
Fidesz 284 (74%)
MSZP 50 (13%)
Jobbik 37 (10%)
LMP-Greens 15 (4%)

Republikon Intézet:
Fidesz 267 (70%)
MSZP 62 (16%)
Jobbik 47 (12%)
LMP-Greens 10 (3%)

Medián:
Fidesz 275 (71%)
MSZP 51 (13%)
Jobbik 50 (13%)
LMP 10 (3%)

Not sure how good these thingee whingees are, given Hungary's absurdly complex system mixing list PR, French-like two-round constituencies and a bunch of other stuff.

The two "old" parties from the early post-communist years, the liberal SzDSz and conservative MDF would be eliminated, first time, afaik, since 1990 o/c.

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It's properly abbreviated SZDSZ, FWIW.

SZDSZ stands for Szabad Demokraták Szövetsége, so SzDSz is the most correct way (like PdL is the correct way to abbreviate Il Popolo della Liberta in Italy).

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Hungarian national television now gives as results (if I interpret it correctly with 99.1% counted):

Fidesz-KDNP - 52.77% / 206 seats
MSZP - 19.30%  / 28 seats
Jobbik - 16.71% / 26 seats
LMP - 7.42% / 5 seats
MDF - 2.65% / 0 seats

Total: 265 seats.

There will be some runoffs in single-member seats in a few weeks, but I haven't checked all of those but it appears that Fidesz already has a 45-49% ground there. MSZP might manage to save a few seats in Budapest.

also, lol at Reuters at calling Fidesz centre-right. They're a bunch of opportunists with no platform except empty populism, and light nationalism. In fact, Fidesz said outright that it didn't promise anything this year. It basically ran on platitudes such as "we'll put crooks in jail, trust us" and "we'll create a million jobs, trust us" and won, but given the climate and how people still member that dirty scumbag Gyurcsány and his lies in 2006...  not too surprising.

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Oh, and the MSzP did actually managed to lead in two Budapest constituencies; 19 and 20. If the boundaries on Adam Carr's site are still in use, they're just to the north of the city centre. Wonder what the runoffs will bring.

From a look at The Google, seems to be filled with Soviet-era ugly apartment buildings and a large railroad depot of some sort.

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So, if I'm reading this right, they'll have ~80% of the seats?

Remember, there's a runoff (and I think the 58 national seats to equalize differences between the single-member result and PV).

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They also lead in every constituency, except Budapest-13, when it comes to the run-off.

Budapest 19 and 20 have MSZP leads by the first round.

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Runoff was today.

Turnout seems very low (50ish)

results with 92.67% in:

Fidesz 263
MSZP 59
Jobbik 47
LMP 16

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ok, so:

first round seats total:

Fidesz and allies 119 district, 87 list
MSZP 28 list
Jobbik 26 list
LMP 5 list

districts:

Fidesz and allies 173 (so 54 won in the runoff)
MSZP 2
Indies 1

National lists: Fidesz 3; Jobbik 21; LMP 11; MSZP 29
Regional lists: Fidesz 87; Jobbik 26; LMP 5; MSZP 28 (allocated R1)

Results:

Fidesz 263 (173 DS, 87 RL, 3 NL)
MSZP 59 (2 DS, 28 RL, 29 NL)
Jobbik 47 (0 DS, 26 RL, 21 NL)
LMP 16 (0 DS, 5 RL, 11 NL)
Independent 1 (1 DS, 0 RL, 0 NL)

Two-thirds majority line is 258.

Turnout at 17:30 was 41.89%, so turnout overall will be below 50%. But I think constituencies filled in the first round (which didn't vote today) count in their calculations, since it seems that turnout is up a lot in constituencies with a runoff, meaning that real turnout is heavier today. The results by constituency show that Jobbik's vote declined quasi-universally, sometimes by a big amount, over the first round, likely due to Jobbik voters staying home knowing that their party had no hope in the district seats and a pickup in turnout on the left, the MSZP doing a bit better than two weeks ago overall.