Next Wave of EU Expansion

[Frodo]

Here is a map of the European Union with its current members:

[Psychic Octopus]

Someplace not to risky to Brussels technocrats. My bet would be Croatia or Macedonia. Turkey seems too different from Europe to become a member in the next several years.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Iceland and Croatia

[Psychic Octopus]

Iceland and Croatia

Yes, and Iceland. Forgot.

[The Mikado]

Croatia by itself will be the next wave, and it'll be a long time after that before there's another wave (though Iceland could change that).

[Tender Branson]

Why did you include Norway ?

They surely won`t give up their wealth to redistribute it to the corrupt and incompetent Greeks.

Croatia on the other hand is most likely to join in the next 5 years.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

An oddball pair of possibilities for future expansion would be Mauritius and Seychelles.  Not as strange as one might think since neighboring Reunion is in the EU (as part of France) and Seychelles is arguably more developed than some of the current EU members.

Probably not the next wave of expansion unless that takes a long time to happen.

[Cubby]

Croatia, Iceland and Montenegro

Norway was recently declared to have the best quality of life (the UN's Human Development Index) so maybe staying outside the Euro Zone has its benefits.

The earliest Albania and Macedonia and could join would be the end of this decade. Serbia I'm assuming is one the few places where there would be very strong resistance against joining, so they're off for now. Albania is the poorest country in Europe, but if Romania can join I don't see why Albania can't some day.

Turkey is off the list for next wave of expansion for political reasons. That's an issue Europe is going to have to deal with at some point. I support Turkey joing the EU, with the one exception that they restrict immigration to Europe from Turkey, even if this doesn't apply to relations between other countries.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I'll go with Croatia (negociation have already started I think) and Iceland (with the economic collapse, EU is their better protection).

[Middle-aged Europe]

Croatia, obviously.

After that one, Macedonia and Iceland.

Not entirely sure about Iceland though. If they really speed things up, they could surpass Macedonia and maybe even join together with Croatia.

[Јas]

Croatia could only really be beaten in by Iceland, barring very unusual circumstances.
(Icelanders could well decide though that they don't want in, and may also face the British and/or Dutch stalling accession.)

An oddball pair of possibilities for future expansion would be Mauritius and Seychelles.  Not as strange as one might think since neighboring Reunion is in the EU (as part of France) and Seychelles is arguably more developed than some of the current EU members.

Probably not the next wave of expansion unless that takes a long time to happen.

Being a European State is a sine qua non for membership.
Neither Mauritius nor the Seychelles fit the bill.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Croatia could only really be beaten in by Iceland, barring very unusual circumstances.
(Icelanders could well decide though that they don't want in, and may also face the British and/or Dutch stalling accession.)

An oddball pair of possibilities for future expansion would be Mauritius and Seychelles.  Not as strange as one might think since neighboring Reunion is in the EU (as part of France) and Seychelles is arguably more developed than some of the current EU members.

Probably not the next wave of expansion unless that takes a long time to happen.

Being a European State is a sine qua non for membership.
Neither Mauritius nor the Seychelles fit the bill.

And by what standard are countries "European"?

By a purely geographic standard existing members Malta and Cyprus as well as EU hopefuls Iceland, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia are not qualified for membership.

The "European State" standard was a figleaf used to diplomatically reject Morocco's 1987 application to join without saying that they were too poor and too Islamic.  The Seychelles has nether of those disqualifying characteristics. Indeed it is richer and more Christian than some existing members.  Mauritius would have a harder time, as it is poorer and majority Hindu, tho with a large Christian minority.

[Bo]

Croatia and Iceland.

[Јas]

Croatia could only really be beaten in by Iceland, barring very unusual circumstances.
(Icelanders could well decide though that they don't want in, and may also face the British and/or Dutch stalling accession.)

An oddball pair of possibilities for future expansion would be Mauritius and Seychelles.  Not as strange as one might think since neighboring Reunion is in the EU (as part of France) and Seychelles is arguably more developed than some of the current EU members.

Probably not the next wave of expansion unless that takes a long time to happen.

Being a European State is a sine qua non for membership.
Neither Mauritius nor the Seychelles fit the bill.

And by what standard are countries "European"?

By a purely geographic standard existing members Malta and Cyprus as well as EU hopefuls Iceland, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia are not qualified for membership.

The "European State" standard was a figleaf used to diplomatically reject Morocco's 1987 application to join without saying that they were too poor and too Islamic.  The Seychelles has nether of those disqualifying characteristics. Indeed it is richer and more Christian than some existing members.  Mauritius would have a harder time, as it is poorer and majority Hindu, tho with a large Christian minority.

You are correct re: Morocco, but it is a real issue as it is now (unlike then) a stated condition within the Treaty on European Union (Art.49 - *I think*). Defining what it means is a matter for the European Institutions, presumably the Council and/or Court. Obviously there's an element of subjectivity in defining the limits of Europe, but the Seychelles and Maldives would require particularly creative definitions as well as political will, which, notwithstanding any legal issue, I presume would not be present.

[GMantis]

Croatia and Iceland will join soon together, probably in 2011. After that the gates will be slammed shut for a long time. Turkey has so many problems and so many countries against them that they may not join before the end of this decade. The others have very shaky economies. Serbia actually wants to join very much, but they're not very popular. Same goes for Macedonia, which has bad relations with its two EU neighbors.

[opebo]

I'm not so sure it will expand - it might contract.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

I'm not so sure it will expand - it might contract.

It will for sure

[Хahar 🤔]

Croatia and Iceland, yeah. Iceland may pull a Norway, of course.

[opebo]

I'm not so sure it will expand - it might contract.

It will for sure

Will what?  Expand or contract?

[big bad fab]

Croatia, it's planned.

Icelanders will say "no".

Serbia may enter sooner than expected, as part of a deal with Kosovo recognized as an independent country and with 2 independent Bosnias.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Iceland saying no or not entierly depends on how quickly they'll recover from their economic crisis. If everything is sunshine and lilis again when they hold their vote, there's quite a big possibility of the icelanders rejecting the idea, but if the economic crisis is still fresh in memory, they will undoubtadly vote yes.

Of course Scandinavia as a whole (maybe with the exception of Finland) is very EU negative.

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Having loads and loads of oil has it's benefits, and probably plays a larger part as to why Norway is most well off.