How will census effect EC?

[ChainsawJedis]

Which states do you think will gain electoral votes and which will lose some after the 2020 census?

[andrew_c]

This map seems about right, but I don't think New York would continue to lose electoral votes.

[YaBoyNY]

This map seems about right, but I don't think New York would continue to lose electoral votes.

It's on the edge. The way things are now, there's about a 50/50 chance it loses one or maintains its current representation.

[sg0508]

I believe that the only population increases in NY are in Manhattan (naturally) and Brooklyn, maybe a bit in Queens.  Other than that and coming from the suburbs of Long Island, people are running for the hills up there.  They can't get out of that state fast enough.

[YaBoyNY]

I believe that the only population increases in NY are in Manhattan (naturally) and Brooklyn, maybe a bit in Queens.  Other than that and coming from the suburbs of Long Island, people are running for the hills up there.  They can't get out of that state fast enough.

Every county downstate, up to and including Westchester and Rockland, is growing in population. Most of the population loss is Upstate sans a few counties like Albany and Saratoga.

[Skill and Chance]

The upshot is that this will almost surely be a GOP win in 2024:

But there is reason to believe a tied election would look more like this by 2024:

That is still a Dem win under the worst apportionment scenario for them...

[DS0816]

My home state Michigan was No. 8. It was not only surpassed by Georgia but, with an updated report at some point in 2014, North Carolina also moved ahead.

The numbers in the populations of each state indicate the trio they're on a trajectory to have the same number of congressional seats and electoral votes.

With Election 2012, Michigan and Georgia had 16 electoral votes while North Carolina had 15. I don't know if the highest number will remain 16; but, supposing it does, an adjustment would need to be made for North Carolina.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This makes the 2018; gov race complete. Bill Daley needs to replace Rauner.  Dems hold CO; Ca; Pa.  And pure tossup in MI.

Climate maybe right for OH; NV; and WI other pickups.  Dems net 5 gov races

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Gubernatorial elections; I was naming the states Dems must pickup IL; MI and keep Pa and CO to stave off further losses in the House for the 2020 reapportionment.

Dems will have to do better than those like in NV; OH; and NM to take back House. Which is a must in 2020 or 2022.

[bobloblaw]

I count too many seats lost and not enough gained.

I dont see CA gaining a seat. If they didnt gain one in 2010, unlikely in 2020.

GA will gain, WA, UT maybe SC again.