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| | | |-+  Ayres, McHenry & Associates (R): Favorables of Dems in Key Districts
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Author Topic: Ayres, McHenry & Associates (R): Favorables of Dems in Key Districts  (Read 1877 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: March 17, 2010, 02:54:51 pm »
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Favorable ratings in key swing districts according to GOP firm Ayres, McHenry & Associates (400 Likely Voters in each district, MoE=4.9%, March 8-10, 2010):

AZ-08 (Gabrielle Giffords): 51% Favorable, 35% Unfavorable (2008: Giffords 55%, Republican 43%)

CO-04 (Betsy Markey): 36% Favorable, 37% Unfavorable (2008: Markey 56%, Republican 44%)

FL-02 (Allen Boyd): 42% Favorable, 38% Unfavorable (2008: Boyd 62%, Republican 38%)

NC-08 (Larry Kissell): 35% Favorable, 22% Unfavorable (2008: Kissell 55%, Republican 45%)

NV-03 (Dina Titus): 41% Favorable, 43% Unfavorable (2008: Titus 47%, Republican 42%)

NY-24 (Michael Arcuri): 47% Favorable, 24% Unfavorable (2008: Arcuri 52%, Republican 48%)

OH-01 (Steve Driehaus): 48% Favorable, 33% Unfavorable (2008: Driehaus 53%, Republican 47%)

PA-04 (Jason Altmire): 54% Favorable, 22% Unfavorable (2008: Altmire 56%, Republican 44%)

TX-17 (Chet Edwards): 51% Favorable, 33% Unfavorable (2008: Edwards 53%, Republican 46%)

VA-02 (Glenn Nye): 48% Favorable, 18% Unfavorable (2008: Nye 52%, Republican 48%)

http://innovation.cq.com/atlas/district_08
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« Reply #1 on: March 17, 2010, 03:01:14 pm »
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VA-02 (Glenn Nye): 48% Favorable, 18% Unfavorable (2008: Nye 52%, Republican 48%)

Weird.
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« Reply #2 on: March 17, 2010, 05:23:05 pm »
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Favorable ratings in key swing districts according to GOP firm Ayres, McHenry & Associates (400 Likely Voters in each district, MoE=4.9%, March 8-10, 2010):

FL-02 (Allen Boyd): 42% Favorable, 38% Unfavorable (2008: Boyd 62%, Republican 38%)

NC-08 (Larry Kissell): 35% Favorable, 22% Unfavorable (2008: Kissell 55%, Republican 45%)

http://innovation.cq.com/atlas/district_08

These two surprised me, I expected Boyd to be more favorable, but then again it is a R+6 seat. If he loses his primary (very unlikely but it could happen to Al Lawson) this seat could be up for grabs
And Kissell looks pretty secure.
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Badger
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« Reply #3 on: March 17, 2010, 05:40:01 pm »
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Good numbers for Altmire. Surprisingly strong numbers for Dreihaus which makes me wonder why Chabot is beating him so badly in polls.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #4 on: March 17, 2010, 05:55:25 pm »
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Head-to-head matchups might mean something. Just because a candidate in a Republican district is liked doesn't mean the voters won't dump them for a Republican.
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« Reply #5 on: March 17, 2010, 05:57:49 pm »
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I'd very much like to see some for NY-20 (Scott Murphy) and NY-23 (Bill Owens). I wonder how they'd go considering they were special election wins...
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« Reply #6 on: March 17, 2010, 06:03:46 pm »
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AZ-08 (Gabrielle Giffords): 51% Favorable, 35% Unfavorable (2008: Giffords 55%, Republican 43%)

But Carl assured me she was going to lose in a landslide!!!
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« Reply #7 on: March 17, 2010, 06:13:04 pm »
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AZ-08 (Gabrielle Giffords): 51% Favorable, 35% Unfavorable (2008: Giffords 55%, Republican 43%)

But Carl assured me she was going to lose in a landslide!!!

Yes, she's completely alienated her district you know.

This Republican pollster is obviously showing its liberal bias.
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« Reply #8 on: March 17, 2010, 07:21:23 pm »
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Good numbers for Altmire. Surprisingly strong numbers for Dreihaus which makes me wonder why Chabot is beating him so badly in polls.

Driehaus was trailing badly in one poll (and a farly suspect one at that), there has been no other polling of the district, nor much evidence to suggest anything, but another close race.
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Sibboleth
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« Reply #9 on: March 17, 2010, 09:16:00 pm »
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These numbers aren't telling us much that we didn't know (or ought to have guessed) already.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #10 on: March 17, 2010, 09:19:03 pm »
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These numbers aren't telling us much that we didn't know (or ought to have guessed) already.

Yep.
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Hashemite
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« Reply #11 on: March 17, 2010, 10:55:07 pm »
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Popular incumbents or non-polarizing incumbents. Who'd have guessed?
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #12 on: March 18, 2010, 11:10:51 pm »
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I'd very much like to see some for NY-20 (Scott Murphy) and NY-23 (Bill Owens).

I want to see NY-19 (John Hall) too.
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Vepres
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« Reply #13 on: March 18, 2010, 11:19:58 pm »
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Markey is probably going down because of her party, regardless of her merits.
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LOL, Failure

Alright, if Republicans gain less than 75 seats, I'll prominently display my failure in my signature.
JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #14 on: March 19, 2010, 07:28:53 am »
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Markey is probably going down because of her party, regardless of her merits.

I'm hearing that Cory Gardner is a gaffe machine. Any truth to that?
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« Reply #15 on: March 19, 2010, 10:40:23 am »
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AZ-08 (Gabrielle Giffords): 51% Favorable, 35% Unfavorable (2008: Giffords 55%, Republican 43%)

LOL.
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I don't know, I think the beat-back that happened in the wake of the Inks-Deluge debacle (and the descent of Leip to address it) means that the Mods don't have the standing right now to pull off a ban of a big-name poster.  this place would absolutely erupt, at least for opebo.  jmf maybe a bit less so, but still an outcry.  doesn't mean it could not happen at a future point.
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