Senate Race Predictions.

[Ben.]

Lets see how you judge the state of the Senate races. Predictions Please

My Predictions:

Alaska: Knowles

Colorado: Coors (very close call, but I think he’ll edge it)

Florida: Martinez

Georgia: Isakson

Illinois: Obama

Kentucky: Bunning

Louisiana: John (after a runoff)

North Carolina: Burr

Oklahoma: Coburn (he’ll be a disaster though, Carson would make a terrific Senator with Knowles and John he would be a great addition to the Democrats in the Senate).

South Carolina: DeMint

South Dakota: Daschle

…bit scant on explaining my predictions here, but this is mostly based on the polls and “gut”. But this how things are looking to me but Florida and Colorado are damn close and could turn on a dime, high turnout in either and the dems will be favoured. Added to this Oklahoma and North Carolina are still dog fights but are moving in the direction of the GOP.       

[Sibboleth]

Alaska: I *think* that Knowles can edge it... I'm going to stick my neck out and call it D-BOP

Colorado: NCF

Florida: NCF

Georgia: R-BRD (an upset would greatly amuse me though)

Illinois: D-BRD (but can Obama break 70%?)

Kentucky: I was thinking R-BOP... but Kentucky voters can be contrary sods sometimes (a good trait IMO)... I'm actually having this as NCF.

Louisiana: Wait 'till runoff... Vitter has a 25% chance of avoiding it

North Carolina: NCF. Good arguements for either winning... ask me again in a few days

Oklahoma: Anything other than NCF would be asking for trouble here... It's down to the ticket splitters of Eastern Okie...

South Carolina: R-BOP

South Dakota: Herseth's coattails will save Daschle (well maybe not, but I like the idea damn it!) D-BOP/NCF. Ask me again in a few days.

Three words: Turnout, Turnout, Turnout

[MHS2002]

AK: Knowles
CO: Coors
FL: Martinez
GA: Isakson
IL: Obama
KY: Bunning
LA: John over Vitter in a run-off
NC: Burr
OK: Coburn
SC: DeMint
SD: Daschle in a squeaker

[Sam Spade]

For being a week out, these are my predictions.

These could possibly change on election day in the states indicated:

AK: Knowles (we don't get any polls out of here, just going with gut, though I certainly could change it)
CO: Coors (close, but Rep. in-state advantage will save him)
FL: Martinez (close, saved by the Cubans)
GA: Isakson (not close)
IL: Obama (will probably get 70%)
KY: Bunning (closer than expected, Bunning wins by 6-8%)
LA: Talk to me in a week.  Chances of Vitter avoiding run-off are rising with each day (30-35% now), but odds are still against
NC: Burr (this one will not be as close as the polls are saying, Bowles sucks as a candidate)
OK: Coburn (may not get 50%, but Bileyeu will pull about 5%.  The Rep. DC establishment wants Carson, which is the reason why I like Coburn)
SC: DeMint (will be closer than it should be, DeMint doesn't know when to shut up)
SD: I refuse to call this one.  If forced by a gun to head, will say Daschle by 100 votes.

Net pickup/loss: +2 Rep, with potential of +3 Rep (LA)

[AuH2O]

In order of confidence (real races only):

KY: Bunning
SC: DeMint
NC: Burr
FL: Martinez
SD: Thune
CO: Coors
OK: Coburn
LA: Vitter
AK: Knowles

The last 2 are very soft... I would not actually bet on Knowles winning; Vitter has to be the favorite here because he has 2 chances to win; I think he will get 50% on Nov. 2, but even if he doesn't, it's not over, because Kennedy could beat John, and Vitter would beat him, and Vitter could beat John head-to-head (despite widespread claims to the contrary).

[Jake]

Alaska- Knowles by 4%
South Dakota-Thune by <200 votes
Colorado-Coors by 4%
Georgia-Isakson easy
Louisiana-Vitter with 50%+1
South Carolina-DeMint by <10%
North Carolina-Burr by 2%
Kentucky-Bunning by 3%
Illinois-Obama by 38%
Wisconsin-Feingold by 6%
Washington-Murray by 12%
Oklahoma-Coburn by 2%
Florida-Martinez by >6%

GOP gains 4 seats
55-45

[nini2287]

Alaska: Knowles +5

Colorado: Coors +2

Florida: Martinez +2

Georgia: Isakson +16

Illinois: Obama +42

Kentucky: Bunning +9

Louisiana: John +3 (Vitter-47% on ED)

North Carolina: Burr + 2

Oklahoma: Carson +<1

South Carolina: DeMint + 8

South Dakota: Daschle + <1

It remains 51-48-1

[Sam Spade]

Carson going to lose.  He's now pulling his negative ads (supposedly) and promising to only "debate on the issues". 

Considering he was the one who started the negative advertising to being with, it seems to tell me he's in trouble.

http://newsok.com/article/1347135/?template=news/main

Otherwise, I agree with your predictions, though Knowles victory will be smaller and Burr's larger.  Louisiana will have to wait until next week when I get a better idea how the undecideds will break.

[rbt48]

I think that Murkowski will pull out a victory on Bush's coattails.  Were this a non-Presidential year, she would be toast.  WIth a 60 to 35 Bush win in AK, and the fact that Alaska hasn't elected a Democrat to the Senate since '74, she will squeak by.  Military absentee vote might be the edge--they are out of state and less likely to be aware of the furor against Gov Murkowski appointing her to his vacant seat.

Close races in SC, KY, and OK will also go Republican with a boost from Bush's coattails.

If Vitter doesn't get 50% on 2 Nov (and I don't envision he will), he'll likely lose a runoff.  Democrats have proven runoff success in recent races (2003 governorship and Landrieu in 2002 for the Senate).

Burr in NC, Daschle/Thune too close to call. 

Georgia and Illinois are already decided.

New Senate:  53R, 47D (calling Jeffords as a D since he caucuses that way.

[AuH2O]

Everyone is calling Knowles in AK (including me), but rbt is correct in his analysis. The problem is that the Senate race almost takes precedence over the Presidential race, because the latter has a predictable outcome.

Given that, it is entirely possible people could vote first on the Senate, and then on the Presidential. In that case, Knowles has an advantage.

There will be coattails from Bush, so I expect the race to be decided by a very small margin. Though I think Murkowski could surprise some people and win by 3-4% if everything goes her way.

[Vasall des Midas]

My Predictions:
Alaska: Knowles (close)
Colorado: Coors (close)
Florida: Castor (ultra-close)
Georgia: Isakson
Illinois: Obama
Kentucky: Bunning (close)
Louisiana: John (after a runoff)
North Carolina: Bowles
Oklahoma: Coburn (ultra-close).
South Carolina: DeMint
South Dakota: Daschle (reason I'm not writing "close" is not that I don't think it will be close - it will - ,  but that I would be really surprised if he loses, and that's not true wherever I wrote "close")

[struct310]

AK-Knowles
CO-Coors
OK-Coburn
FL-Martinez
GA-Isakson
IL-Obama
NC-Burr
SC-DeMint
WA-Murray
WI-Feingold, but with upset potential
LA-Vitter

[Nation]

Alaska - Knowles
Colorado - Salazar
Kentucky - Bunning
Oklahoma - Coburn
Georgia - Isakson
South Carolina - DeMint
Florida - Martinez

[CollectiveInterest]

The following people will be new US Senators:

Erskine Bowles (NC)
Brad Carson (OK)
Betty Castor (FL)
Joe Hoeffel (PA)
Johnny Isakson (GA)
Tony Knowles (AK)
Dan Mongiardo (KY)
Barack Obama (IL)
Ken Salazar (CO)
Inez Tenebaum (SC)

and either Chris John or John Kennedy (LA)

[AuH2O]

The following people will be new US Senators:

Erskine Bowles (NC)
Brad Carson (OK)
Betty Castor (FL)
Joe Hoeffel (PA)
Johnny Isakson (GA)
Tony Knowles (AK)
Dan Mongiardo (KY)
Barack Obama (IL)
Ken Salazar (CO)
Inez Tenebaum (SC)

and either Chris John or John Kennedy (LA)

hahahahha

[A18]

Hey CI, mind posting your prediction map again? Thanks!

[King]

The following people will be new US Senators:

Erskine Bowles (NC)
Brad Carson (OK)
Betty Castor (FL)
Joe Hoeffel (PA)
Johnny Isakson (GA)
Tony Knowles (AK)
Dan Mongiardo (KY)
Barack Obama (IL)
Ken Salazar (CO)
Inez Tenebaum (SC)

and either Chris John or John Kennedy (LA)

Plus all 435 House seats will go Democrat or 3rd Party/Write-in if no Dem is running.

[No more McShame]

AK-  Knowles by 2-3 %.  Voters will differenciate between him and Kerry.  Bush's coattails won't make a difference.

CO- Coors by 3-4%.  Bush's coattails do help here.  Colorado will vote GOP when in the booth.  Ask the guy who ran against Allard two years ago.

FL- Martinez by 1-2%. Probably the same margin of victory for Bush here.

GA- Isakson by 15%.  Strong GOP tilt to the state now.

IL- Keyes pulls out a stunning upset victory! HA HA HA.
     Obama wins by about 60%.

KT- Bunning by 6-7%.  Morgiardo is too liberal for his electorate.

LA- Vitter in a run-off.  He gets 47-48% on Election Day.

NC- Burr by 4-5%.  Bowles' assoiciation with Clinton hurts in this state.  Burr has really come on in the polls.

OK- Carson pulls off an upset.  I grant that Coburn is up in the polls, just a gut feeling here.  0-1%.

SC- DeMint by 8-9%. Had an easy time painting Tenebaum with the "L" word.  Not good in SC.

SD- Thune by 0-1%.  Bye bye Daschle.  Reid & Dodd are caught dancing with joy.

All other incumbents win easily.

Gain of three for the Republicans

[Downwinder]

AK:  A popular former governor versus an unpopular appointed senator?  I'll take Knowles by 3%, even with the state voting overwhelmingly for Bush.

CO:  They both have the name recognition, but Salazar has a record in government, and less baggage--CO soccer moms won't vote for a guy who supported lowering the drinking age.  He'll win by 2%, helped out by a surprising Kerry performance in CO.

FL:  A very close race, but I'll take Castor by 2%.  Party loyalty will mean more than ethnic background in this race.

GA:  Isakson, by about 15%.

IL:  Obama, by about 45%.

KY:  Bunning by 4%.  Had his mental problems surfaced a bit earlier, he would have lost.

LA:  John wins in the run-off.  Vitter gets about 44% on election day, but the Dem's unite behind John for the run-off.

NC:  Burr by 5%. 

OK:  Carson by <1%.  I'm probably most biased about this race though, since I think Coburn is such a douche bag, therefore, my vision is clouded.

SC:  Demint by 10%.

SD:  Daschle, also by <1%. 

Net gain of one for the Dems, resulting in a 50R-49D-1I Senate.