probability that the 2016 Democratic ticket will have a woman on it?

[Mr. Morden]

What's the probability that the 2016 Democratic ticket will have a woman on it?  That is, either as the presidential or vice presidential nominee?

My guess?  I actually think it might be as high as 90%.  Do not underestimate the "it's time for a woman" sentiment among a good chunk of the 2008 Clintonistas in the party, that will hold over into 2016.  Even if the Dems' presidential nominee in 2016 is a man, I think he'll pick a woman as his running mate.

[Bo]

43.29%

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Another intresting question would be, what's the chance of both major party tickets having women on them in 2016?

[yougo1000]

50-50

[Ogre Mage]

If I had to place money on it, I would bet that there will be a woman somewhere on the Democratic ticket in 2016.  I've read that many women allied with or part of the Democratic Party, particularly Hillary Clinton supporters, feel the matter is unfinished business.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

40%

[Psychic Octopus]

I think Hillary will run, personally, but if not I think a woman will get the Veep slot.

[RIP Robert H Bork]

50%.

[Bull Moose Base]

Almost 100%.  If Hillary doesn't run- maybe even if she does- one or more other women probably will.  And if a man wins the presidential nomination, he'll be in approximately the same position Obama was in when Souter retired.

How about this: What is the probability of the Democratic ticket in 2016 having 2 women on it?  I'd argue while unlikely not nearly as low as many would assume.  The reason being that if Hillary is the nominee, everyone will as usual engage in the parlor game of guessing the running mate and there's no way the subject would be avoided.  The press will openly look at the "list" and wonder if she could get away with picking a woman and some will clumsily insist it'd be impossible which is of course, an obnoxious assertion that would be met with serious pushback.  Men have had male VPs for over 200 years.  Why should Hillary hesitate to pick Klobuchar or Napolitano or some new female governor? Remember Bill Clinton jettisoned the tradition of geographic balance instead doubling down on another young Southerner.  Maybe Hillary would try a similar move.  And she also probably has enough gravitas in foreign affairs at this point to be easily accepted as a potential Commander-in-Chief so that she wouldn't need to bolster herself in that department.  I think it's much less likely if another woman is the nominee and, even with Hillary, it'd be surprising but not shocking.

And yet another question is what are the odds of both parties nominating women for president in 2016?
Again, not an impossible scenario.  The most likely scenario would be Palin and Hillary but it could happen in different ways.  We could witness an historic breakthrough for women... owing to everybody's love of girl-on-girl action.

[pragmatic liberal]

If Hillary doesn't run, then Amy Klobuchar strikes me as the most likely contender for the presidential nomination. And if she loses to, say, Andrew Cuomo or Sheldon Whitehouse or Mark Warner, she could well be the VP.

If a man is nominated for president, there will be strong pressure to nominate a woman for VP, and I wouldn't be shocked if they look outside the traditional pool of senators and governors to look at cabinet secretaries or members of the House.

[Lief 🗽]

Very high. I don't think we'll ever seen an all white male Democratic ticket again.

[Bo]

Very high. I don't think we'll ever seen an all white male Democratic ticket again.

Never say never. I could still see it occuring occasionally.

[The Age Wave]

10%

[nclib]

How about this: What is the probability of the Democratic ticket in 2016 having 2 women on it?  I'd argue while unlikely not nearly as low as many would assume.  The reason being that if Hillary is the nominee, everyone will as usual engage in the parlor game of guessing the running mate and there's no way the subject would be avoided.  The press will openly look at the "list" and wonder if she could get away with picking a woman and some will clumsily insist it'd be impossible which is of course, an obnoxious assertion that would be met with serious pushback.  Men have had male VPs for over 200 years.  Why should Hillary hesitate to pick Klobuchar or Napolitano or some new female governor? Remember Bill Clinton jettisoned the tradition of geographic balance instead doubling down on another young Southerner.  Maybe Hillary would try a similar move.

I agree in theory that a ticket with two qualified women could be just as acceptable as two male candidates, but due to electability reasons, it won't happen for at least a few more elections.

As for Clinton picking Gore instead of giving geographic balance, southerners are a Republican (-leaning at the time) constituency, so it would help make inroads, while women are a Democratic-leaning constituency, so there would be no comparable gain.

[HAnnA MArin County]

Almost 100%.  If Hillary doesn't run- maybe even if she does- one or more other women probably will.  And if a man wins the presidential nomination, he'll be in approximately the same position Obama was in when Souter retired.

How about this: What is the probability of the Democratic ticket in 2016 having 2 women on it?  I'd argue while unlikely not nearly as low as many would assume.  The reason being that if Hillary is the nominee, everyone will as usual engage in the parlor game of guessing the running mate and there's no way the subject would be avoided.  The press will openly look at the "list" and wonder if she could get away with picking a woman and some will clumsily insist it'd be impossible which is of course, an obnoxious assertion that would be met with serious pushback.  Men have had male VPs for over 200 years.  Why should Hillary hesitate to pick Klobuchar or Napolitano or some new female governor? Remember Bill Clinton jettisoned the tradition of geographic balance instead doubling down on another young Southerner.  Maybe Hillary would try a similar move.  And she also probably has enough gravitas in foreign affairs at this point to be easily accepted as a potential Commander-in-Chief so that she wouldn't need to bolster herself in that department.  I think it's much less likely if another woman is the nominee and, even with Hillary, it'd be surprising but not shocking.

And yet another question is what are the odds of both parties nominating women for president in 2016?
Again, not an impossible scenario.  The most likely scenario would be Palin and Hillary but it could happen in different ways.  We could witness an historic breakthrough for women... owing to everybody's love of girl-on-girl action.

Wonderful analysis, BUT... not everybody loves girl-on-girl action haha

Well, we know that Caribou Barbie IS aiming at a run in 2012, and while I think her chances of getting the GOP nomination is pretty high, there's no way she will win the general election against Obama. She only appeals to the fringe right-wing Tea Parties and Bible bigots in the party, Democrats and liberals hate her, and all it will take for Obama to get the Independent vote is to just air those interviews with Katie Couric and Charlie Gibson and cue Tina Fey and SNL and it spells the end of a President Palin dream.

I do think that the Democratic ticket will have a woman on it in 2016, either as President or Vice President. If Hillary doesn't run, there are plenty of other high-profile women in the Democratic Party who could make a run. But on the Republican Party, let's not forget Condoleezza Rice.

[Bo]

Almost 100%.  If Hillary doesn't run- maybe even if she does- one or more other women probably will.  And if a man wins the presidential nomination, he'll be in approximately the same position Obama was in when Souter retired.

How about this: What is the probability of the Democratic ticket in 2016 having 2 women on it?  I'd argue while unlikely not nearly as low as many would assume.  The reason being that if Hillary is the nominee, everyone will as usual engage in the parlor game of guessing the running mate and there's no way the subject would be avoided.  The press will openly look at the "list" and wonder if she could get away with picking a woman and some will clumsily insist it'd be impossible which is of course, an obnoxious assertion that would be met with serious pushback.  Men have had male VPs for over 200 years.  Why should Hillary hesitate to pick Klobuchar or Napolitano or some new female governor? Remember Bill Clinton jettisoned the tradition of geographic balance instead doubling down on another young Southerner.  Maybe Hillary would try a similar move.  And she also probably has enough gravitas in foreign affairs at this point to be easily accepted as a potential Commander-in-Chief so that she wouldn't need to bolster herself in that department.  I think it's much less likely if another woman is the nominee and, even with Hillary, it'd be surprising but not shocking.

And yet another question is what are the odds of both parties nominating women for president in 2016?
Again, not an impossible scenario.  The most likely scenario would be Palin and Hillary but it could happen in different ways.  We could witness an historic breakthrough for women... owing to everybody's love of girl-on-girl action.

Wonderful analysis, BUT... not everybody loves girl-on-girl action haha

Well, we know that Caribou Barbie IS aiming at a run in 2012, and while I think her chances of getting the GOP nomination is pretty high, there's no way she will win the general election against Obama. She only appeals to the fringe right-wing Tea Parties and Bible bigots in the party, Democrats and liberals hate her, and all it will take for Obama to get the Independent vote is to just air those interviews with Katie Couric and Charlie Gibson and cue Tina Fey and SNL and it spells the end of a President Palin dream.

I do think that the Democratic ticket will have a woman on it in 2016, either as President or Vice President. If Hillary doesn't run, there are plenty of other high-profile women in the Democratic Party who could make a run. But on the Republican Party, let's not forget Condoleezza Rice.

Condoleeza Rice is too closely associated with Bush Jr.'s Presidency to make a successful run for President (or to become the GOP VP candidate).

[Mister Mets]

Interesting question. Could be as high as 80%.

If Hillary Clinton runs, she could be an overwhelming favorite. I'd put the odds of her as the nominee at 40+%.
If she doesn't, Elizabeth Warren would be a credible candidate (the base loves her, she's from that state next to NH.)
Kirsten Gilibrand would also have a shot, mainly due to experience with the media, as well as her youth, in the party of Kennedy, Clinton and Obama.
McCaskill and Klobuchar are also potential nominees.
So the odds of a female nominee might be 60%.

Hillary does have health concerns, and the majority of the potential presidential contenders are still male. But even if a Biden, Cuomo, Warner, O'Malley, Patrick or Villaragosa is nominated, they have incentives to choose a female running mate. And there are a few possibilities, including any of the potential presidential candidates, Hagan, Heitkamp, Cantwell, Governor Maggie Hassan of New Hampshire, and anyone elected to statewide office in 2014.

So if there's a 40% chance of a male nominee, there's a 20% of a male/ female ticket.

[tmthforu94]

I would say around an 80% chance.

[Mister Mets]

Almost 100%.  If Hillary doesn't run- maybe even if she does- one or more other women probably will.  And if a man wins the presidential nomination, he'll be in approximately the same position Obama was in when Souter retired.

How about this: What is the probability of the Democratic ticket in 2016 having 2 women on it?  I'd argue while unlikely not nearly as low as many would assume.  The reason being that if Hillary is the nominee, everyone will as usual engage in the parlor game of guessing the running mate and there's no way the subject would be avoided.  The press will openly look at the "list" and wonder if she could get away with picking a woman and some will clumsily insist it'd be impossible which is of course, an obnoxious assertion that would be met with serious pushback.  Men have had male VPs for over 200 years.  Why should Hillary hesitate to pick Klobuchar or Napolitano or some new female governor? Remember Bill Clinton jettisoned the tradition of geographic balance instead doubling down on another young Southerner.  Maybe Hillary would try a similar move.  And she also probably has enough gravitas in foreign affairs at this point to be easily accepted as a potential Commander-in-Chief so that she wouldn't need to bolster herself in that department.  I think it's much less likely if another woman is the nominee and, even with Hillary, it'd be surprising but not shocking.

And yet another question is what are the odds of both parties nominating women for president in 2016?
Again, not an impossible scenario.  The most likely scenario would be Palin and Hillary but it could happen in different ways.  We could witness an historic breakthrough for women... owing to everybody's love of girl-on-girl action.

I think it's unlikely to have a Democratic ticket with two women for a few reasons. It's an idea that would only appeal to people who were going to vote for the first female candidate anyway.

And while Democrats have a female frontrunner, and a few other potential nominees, the pool of qualified male candidates is higher.  In the group of male Democratic Senators born after 1950, men outnumber women almost two to one (although there is still an impressive number of women in the group.) There is also one Democratic female Governor.

Interesting question on the odds of both parties having a woman on the ticket. Republicans have a few potential female nominees, but the frontrunners are male. Their pool of potential female veeps is also smaller, although they have a few choices.

The Republican convention is also earlier, so Democrats would also make the decision about their ticket after seeing the Republican ticket. But the Republicans will likely respond to whoever the Democrats nominate for the top of the ticket.

[Liberalrocks]

I think Hillary will run, personally, but if not I think a woman will get the Veep slot.

[Cryptic]

Around 80-90%.  

If Hillary runs, she'll definitely get it.  And if she doesn't run, I think a woman will get the VP spot.  

[solarstorm]

100%

[Likely Voter]

i agree it is in the 90% range.  One thing for sure, I think for the Dems there is an almost 0% chance they will have a two white guy ticket ever again (especially 2 straight white male protestants). The GOP probably wont go that way in 2016 either.

[justfollowingtheelections]

100%

[justfollowingtheelections]

Around 80-90%.  

If Hillary runs, she'll definitely get it.  And if she doesn't run, I think a woman will still be the nominee.  

Fixed.