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| | |-+  Is 2012 going to be like 1964 for Republicans?
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Author Topic: Is 2012 going to be like 1964 for Republicans?  (Read 2062 times)
21st Century Independent
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« on: March 25, 2010, 03:12:09 am »
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Will the Republicans nominate a Barry Goldwater like candidate in 2012? If so, would Obama win in a landslide ala LBJ in 1964?

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rebeltarian
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« Reply #1 on: March 25, 2010, 03:23:24 am »
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A man as honest and principled as Barry Goldwater could not get the nomination of either party today.  Though I could see them going for a cold, intellectual idealogue a la Mitt Romney or Tim Pawlenty and getting crushed (granted Obama has a reasonable level of approval), but still not as badly as 1964.  There are at least 12 states will never, ever vote for a Democrat in today's political climes. 
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« Reply #2 on: March 25, 2010, 04:56:55 am »
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The most favorable scenario that I can imagine for President Obama is a win analogous to Eisenhower 1956. Obama would get 56% of the popular vote and pick up MO, GA, MT, AZ, SC, ND, SD, TX, KY, WV, TN, and NE-01, which together would be good for about 450 electoral votes, against a very weak candidate. Key to such a landslide would be Texas, which itself is about 35 electoral votes.



     
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« Reply #3 on: March 25, 2010, 10:04:47 am »
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A 1964 comparison would be Obama carrying every state but Idaho, Wyoming, Kansas, Nebraksa, Oklahoma, Utah, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, Arkansas, Kentucky, and Tennessee and Democrats picking up a seat in the Senate and about 40 more seats in the House.  
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RosettaStoned
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« Reply #4 on: March 25, 2010, 12:41:08 pm »
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No. Obama is going to lose.
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J. J.
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« Reply #5 on: March 25, 2010, 01:05:07 pm »
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The analogy might be more likely to be Carter in 1980.

Reagan was thought, even into the campaign, that he was too right wing to be president.  The old ad from 1976, "Governor Reagan didn't start a war.  President Reagan could."
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J. J.

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« Reply #6 on: March 25, 2010, 01:12:36 pm »
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No, it will be like 1984 for the Democrats.
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #7 on: March 25, 2010, 01:18:03 pm »
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No, it will be like 1984 for the Democrats.

The incumbent President in 1984 wasn't a Democrat.
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Senator Libertas
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« Reply #8 on: March 25, 2010, 01:19:25 pm »
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No, it will be like 1984 for the Democrats.

The incumbent President in 1984 wasn't a Democrat.

Who cares? I don't. All the matters is that Obama will be out on his ass in 2012.
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« Reply #9 on: March 25, 2010, 01:21:06 pm »
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No, it will be like 1984 for the Democrats.

The incumbent President in 1984 wasn't a Democrat.

Who cares? I don't. All the matters is that Obama will be out on his ass in 2012.

Clearly you do as you used it to make your point.
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« Reply #10 on: March 25, 2010, 01:55:19 pm »
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Probably more like 1996, although it's certainly possible for Obama to substantially outperform as HCR grows in popularity and the economy begins to recover by 2012.
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Senator Libertas
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« Reply #11 on: March 25, 2010, 02:10:23 pm »
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Probably more like 1996, although it's certainly possible for Obama to substantially outperform as HCR grows in popularity and the economy begins to recover by 2012.

LOL, the economy will collapse by the time Obama is through.

Perhaps 1932 is the more apt comparison, with the parties reversed, of course.
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President Mitt
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« Reply #12 on: March 25, 2010, 05:07:11 pm »
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Probably more like 1996, although it's certainly possible for Obama to substantially outperform as HCR grows in popularity and the economy begins to recover by 2012.

How can something that isn't even going into effect until 2014 gain any popularity?
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« Reply #13 on: March 25, 2010, 05:33:25 pm »
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Probably more like 1996, although it's certainly possible for Obama to substantially outperform as HCR grows in popularity and the economy begins to recover by 2012.

How can something that isn't even going into effect until 2014 gain any popularity?

That's what I was thinking. Basically the process for the bill's implementation will add further to the national debt. The government is going to have to eventually print more money with the current debt, and that will lead to an increase in inflation. High levels of inflation will drive the United States back into another recession, and Obama will be back in Chicago come January 2013.
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DS0816
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« Reply #14 on: March 25, 2010, 08:41:31 pm »
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Will the Republicans nominate a Barry Goldwater like candidate in 2012? If so, would Obama win in a landslide ala LBJ in 1964?

Election 2012 will not be like 1996 and 2004 respectable gains in the popular vote (3% in each of the cases of Presidents Bill Clinton and George W. Bush), and the trading colors of a few states that sees the incumbent, in re-election, net more electoral votes. (The only two-term president with less electoral votes in his re-election: 1916 Woodrow Wilson.)

It'll be a landslide, all right!

Probably a wipeout.

It'll go beyond 400 electoral votes for President Obama. (Which hasn't been seen since the Republicans' dominance of the 1980s.)

What you're seeing of today's "Republican" Party is a real meltdown. Of their party. It's evident in how it's taking shape they're about out of gas. With no real leader to help, let alone rescue, them.

The Republican Party knows this.

Obama's 52.87 percent in the 2008 popular vote you might as well call it 53% will grow by at least 5 percent. (That would add an additional 10 points to the 7.25 margin by which Obama beat John McCain in 2008.) And if it's as bad I suspect, he'll render his Republican "opponent" no matter who it is unable to reach 40 percent of the vote. And that'll translate into, roughly, around 100 electoral votes added to his 365 (from 2008). States you don't think would ever say no to the GOP and we got a sampling of it in 2008 with Indiana, Virginia, and the 2nd Congressional District in Nebraska will be gone (and, yes, that includes Texas).
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DS0816
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« Reply #15 on: March 25, 2010, 08:44:03 pm »
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The analogy might be more likely to be Carter in 1980.

Reagan was thought, even into the campaign, that he was too right wing to be president.  The old ad from 1976, "Governor Reagan didn't start a war.  President Reagan could."

Wishful thinking.

The Republicans had the advantage with the realignment election of Nixon in 1968.

We're in a different period.

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SirNick
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« Reply #16 on: March 25, 2010, 08:45:39 pm »
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Probably more like 1996, although it's certainly possible for Obama to substantially outperform as HCR grows in popularity and the economy begins to recover by 2012.

LOL, the economy will collapse by the time Obama is through.

Perhaps 1932 is the more apt comparison, with the parties reversed, of course.

You realize that if the economy collapses, then you don't have a job, Libertas --or your chances of getting a job will likely be hurt. Like I've said to you before, you may have problems with Obama and his policies but I'm sure you do not want to see America fail.
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Breaking hearts and minds
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« Reply #17 on: March 26, 2010, 07:53:48 am »
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So, can we at least agree that 2012 will be definitely a landslide... either for the Democrats or the Republicans. Tongue
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DS0816
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« Reply #18 on: March 26, 2010, 11:11:31 am »
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So, can we at least agree that 2012 will be definitely a landslide... either for the Democrats or the Republicans. Tongue

Whether people here agree with each other it's not important.

Plenty of follks here don't think it'll be a [dominant] landslide; you have plenty thinking in terms of modest gains or declines. And others who think the GOP is going to have a comeback.
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pragmatic liberal
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« Reply #19 on: March 26, 2010, 03:27:14 pm »
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Look, nobody knows what the political climate is going to look like in 2012. Remember that Clinton's and Reagan's ratings were awful throughout their first term (and especially at midterm), and they both won solid reelections. George H.W. Bush enjoyed 60+ approval ratings throughout nearly his ENTIRE TERM, but was undone in his final 6 months by a poor economy.

That being said, a lot of Republicans - and libertarian nuts - are getting awfully premature. The GOP may well make major gains in 2010, maybe even taking the House. But 2012 is a different matter altogether. What they are ignoring is that Obama's approvals have been steadily between 45-50% since last September. And if Obama's ratings are near 50% at the height of the worst recession since the Depression, that's a sign he's hit his floor and its fairly high. Even a moderate recovery would put his ratings in the mid-50s, guaranteeing a second term.
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Zarn
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« Reply #20 on: March 26, 2010, 04:13:51 pm »
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Anyone who thinks Obama will win by an additional 5% or more is kidding themselves. The man has done nothing for this country, and his approvals are declining throughout the presidency, which is something Bush II also had. The difference is that Obama did not have 9/11 nor a divisive election, but they both had a recession to begin the presidency. The ed of Bush II's recession did not help him.
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Bull Moose Base
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« Reply #21 on: March 26, 2010, 04:37:38 pm »
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If there is political violence of any kind, there is very likely to be serious ba
cklash against the Republicans among swing voters and cause a landslide.  Absent that hopefully, the worst case scenario for the GOP is similar to '96 and the best case is similar to '80.
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oakvale
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« Reply #22 on: March 26, 2010, 08:38:45 pm »
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Anyone who thinks Obama will win by an additional 5% or more is kidding themselves. The man has done nothing for this country, and his approvals are declining throughout the presidency, which is something Bush II also had. The difference is that Obama did not have 9/11 nor a divisive election, but they both had a recession to begin the presidency. The ed of Bush II's recession did not help him.

Uh.
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« Reply #23 on: March 26, 2010, 08:48:39 pm »
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No, it will be like 1984 for the Democrats.

Where's one of you great maps? Roll Eyes

Oh, there's 2012 according to greatest, just after nkpatel, forum predictor: Libertas:

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oakvale
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« Reply #24 on: March 26, 2010, 09:12:47 pm »
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No, it will be like 1984 for the Democrats.

Where's one of you great maps? Roll Eyes

Oh, there's 2012 according to greatest, just after nkpatel, forum predictor: Libertas:



Pffft, Gary Johnson carries Illinois against the socialist/fascist/other Obama. Only DC goes to Obama, by less than 1%.
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