Newt Gingrich: Analysis

[Progressive]

Here's my take: Gingrich's candidacy or potential candidacy can go three ways

1) He seems like he is SOOO close to running, to the point where he is visiting voters in different states. He gets a lot of media coverage. But, at the last possible minute, he announces he won't run for Prez. He writes another book. Maybe 2016?

2) He runs, and he's in it to win it. He enjoys every minute of the coverage.

3) He "test runs" and vies for vice presidency.

Which one do you think is most likely?

[#CriminalizeSobriety]

Here's my take: Gingrich's candidacy or potential candidacy can go three ways

1) He seems like he is SOOO close to running, to the point where he is visiting voters in different states. He gets a lot of media coverage. But, at the last possible minute, he announces he won't run for Prez. He writes another book. Maybe 2016?

2) He runs, and he's in it to win it. He enjoys every minute of the coverage.

3) He "test runs" and vies for vice presidency.

Which one do you think is most likely?

#1 is most likely.

#3 is not at all likely.

[Akno21]

I don't see why he'd wait until 2016. If he wants to run, there's not going to be a better opportunity than 2012 anytime soon. I also don't think he has any interest in the Vice Presidency -- he's been Speaker of the House and led a monumentally successful national movement to achieve that position -- he doesn't terribly need the title, and I suspect he'd much prefer his current situation to the vice presidency.

[21st Century Independent]

I believe he's running. He's is more than qualified for the job.

[Reaganfan]

The only way he runs in 2016 is if he is President Gingrich running for re-election. I still think 2016 is going to be a massively crazy election that will make 2012 look like nothing. I feel 2016 will be a great Democratic Primary battle between Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden. I also feel that a Republican President (my guess is Romney, Thune or Santorum) will be up for re-election.

[RosettaStoned]

Here's my take: Gingrich's candidacy or potential candidacy can go three ways

1) He seems like he is SOOO close to running, to the point where he is visiting voters in different states. He gets a lot of media coverage. But, at the last possible minute, he announces he won't run for Prez. He writes another book. Maybe 2016?

2) He runs, and he's in it to win it. He enjoys every minute of the coverage.

3) He "test runs" and vies for vice presidency.

Which one do you think is most likely?

#1 is most likely.

#3 is not at all likely.

[Derek]

Yea the window is closing on him as well. He is one of my top 3 choices as a Republican and I've been waitng years for him to be president or to run.  I can see it now, the entire country chanting "Go Getem Newt!"

[DS0816]

How would the former Speaker of the House, from Georgia, perform in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina?

(Particularly S.C., which is a bellwether for Republicans in determining who ultimately wins the party's nomination for president of the United States?)

[Derek]

He'd do better in SC than in NH or IA but you never know maybe he'll get some endorsements.

[Bull Moose Base]

Option 4: He puts out some feelers, visits early states, never seems more likely than 50-50 on making a run, realizes there's little interest in him/no path to victory, becomes the kind of lobbyist who is ruining democracy.

[pbrower2a]

The only way he runs in 2016 is if he is President Gingrich running for re-election. I still think 2016 is going to be a massively crazy election that will make 2012 look like nothing. I feel 2016 will be a great Democratic Primary battle between Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden. I also feel that a Republican President (my guess is Romney, Thune or Santorum) will be up for re-election.

Barring calamity that goes beyond insult to right-wing sensibilities, President Obama will be re-elected.

Santorum lost re-election to the US Senate by about 20 points in Pennsylvania, so unless he re-creates himself politically within  a few years, he would probably lose 56-44 to President Obama.

[California8429]

I think he runs or he's done. He wouldn't appear on a short-list unless it was like Palin was on the top of the ticket in need of brains like him...though he would overshadow her and that would be a disaster, but it would be a very energized and balanced ticket, partly chaotic.

anyways, I say he runs this time because he has nothing to lose, he isn't getting any younger. It's 2012 or bust and he's been laying the groundwork since 06-07

[DS0816]

pbrower2a suggests a 12-point margin separating the winner and loser in the 2012 presidential election if former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich [R-Georgia] wins his party's nomination. For President Barack Obama [D-Illinois], that would be a 4.75% additional shift, over his 2008 margin, in the U.S. popular vote for 2012. Here is a scenario.…

ELECTION 2012

Newt Gingrich [R-Georgia] vs. * Barack Obama [D-Illinois]

Gingrich 43.20% 153 electoral votes
Obama 55.20% 385 electoral votes

[Ban my account ffs!]

Please don't switch the colors around.

[California8429]

Please don't switch the colors around.

[RosettaStoned]

Newt's time has come and gone.

[Derek]

pbrower2a suggests a 12-point margin separating the winner and loser in the 2012 presidential election if former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich [R-Georgia] wins his party's nomination. For President Barack Obama [D-Illinois], that would be a 4.75% additional shift, over his 2008 margin, in the U.S. popular vote for 2012. Here is a scenario.…

ELECTION 2012

Newt Gingrich [R-Georgia] vs. * Barack Obama [D-Illinois]

Gingrich 43.20% 153 electoral votes
Obama 55.20% 385 electoral votes

what do you base this on Obama's approval ratings?

[Tuck!]

Gingrich isn't going to run. He played these same games before 2008. He is an attention whore but knows he isn't electable.

[California8429]

Gingrich isn't going to run. He played these same games before 2008. He is an attention whore but knows he isn't electable.

he knew 2008 was a lost cause. Why go for a year you know you WILL lose?

[Tuck!]

Gingrich isn't going to run. He played these same games before 2008. He is an attention whore but knows he isn't electable.

he knew 2008 was a lost cause. Why go for a year you know you WILL lose?

He knows he will lose in 2012 too. Newt can't win a primary in any state and will lose to Obama under almost any circumstances.

[California8429]

Gingrich isn't going to run. He played these same games before 2008. He is an attention whore but knows he isn't electable.

he knew 2008 was a lost cause. Why go for a year you know you WILL lose?

He knows he will lose in 2012 too. Newt can't win a primary in any state and will lose to Obama under almost any circumstances.

put the two next to eachother in a debate and I can promise Newt will sweep the floor. His affairs are another subject to the campaign...

[Tuck!]

Gingrich isn't going to run. He played these same games before 2008. He is an attention whore but knows he isn't electable.

he knew 2008 was a lost cause. Why go for a year you know you WILL lose?

He knows he will lose in 2012 too. Newt can't win a primary in any state and will lose to Obama under almost any circumstances.

put the two next to eachother in a debate and I can promise Newt will sweep the floor. His affairs are another subject to the campaign...

Newt Ginrich would end up like Fred Thompson in 2008. He has his hardcore fans but it won't get him anywhere. He also doesn't fill any particularly unique niche, which means that it will be hard to consolidate a base against well-funded and well-known opponents like Mitt Romney.

[exopolitician]

His time was in the 90s. I don't know why he wants to do it now.

[Derek]

I've been waiting since I was 9 to vote for Newt Gingrich. It would be an honor to wait in line to vote for him on election day.

[California8429]

Gingrich isn't going to run. He played these same games before 2008. He is an attention whore but knows he isn't electable.

he knew 2008 was a lost cause. Why go for a year you know you WILL lose?

He knows he will lose in 2012 too. Newt can't win a primary in any state and will lose to Obama under almost any circumstances.

put the two next to eachother in a debate and I can promise Newt will sweep the floor. His affairs are another subject to the campaign...

Newt Ginrich would end up like Fred Thompson in 2008. He has his hardcore fans but it won't get him anywhere. He also doesn't fill any particularly unique niche, which means that it will be hard to consolidate a base against well-funded and well-known opponents like Mitt Romney.

Fred didn't try AT ALL. Newt has been for the past decade going around all over for this