Did the unemployment % already peak for this recession?
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  Did the unemployment % already peak for this recession?
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Author Topic: Did the unemployment % already peak for this recession?  (Read 4083 times)
Bo
Rochambeau
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« on: April 02, 2010, 11:57:27 PM »

Did it already peak at 10.1% or does anyone think it will go higher than that?
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phk
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« Reply #1 on: April 03, 2010, 03:10:43 AM »

Unless its double dip.

It peaked.
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BRTD
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« Reply #2 on: April 03, 2010, 03:35:35 PM »

Yes. Obama fixed the economy despite the Republican obstructionism and attempts to block the stimulus and recovery.
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Frodo
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« Reply #3 on: April 03, 2010, 04:02:45 PM »
« Edited: April 03, 2010, 04:04:37 PM by Frodo »

Pretty much -right now it has stabilized, and with the US Census Bureau ramping up its operations for the 2010 Census between now and the end of the year it ought to begin going down in earnest.  

Hopefully, the census can even prod the private sector to begin to create more jobs than it is losing, and to sustain the recovery without continued government support.
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phk
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« Reply #4 on: April 03, 2010, 06:54:06 PM »

Pretty much -right now it has stabilized, and with the US Census Bureau ramping up its operations for the 2010 Census between now and the end of the year it ought to begin going down in earnest.  

Hopefully, the census can even prod the private sector to begin to create more jobs than it is losing, and to sustain the recovery without continued government support.

I wouldn't even count census jobs as it will make certain months look good (better than what they are) and certain other months look bad (more worse than what they are).
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J. J.
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« Reply #5 on: April 03, 2010, 07:16:22 PM »


Double dip.
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Verily
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« Reply #6 on: April 03, 2010, 08:14:47 PM »

Pretty much -right now it has stabilized, and with the US Census Bureau ramping up its operations for the 2010 Census between now and the end of the year it ought to begin going down in earnest.  

Hopefully, the census can even prod the private sector to begin to create more jobs than it is losing, and to sustain the recovery without continued government support.

The private sector did create jobs (123,000 of them) this past month. Barely keeping pace with population growth, of course, but a nice sign.
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Bo
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« Reply #7 on: April 03, 2010, 08:30:09 PM »

I'd say Yes, but even if the economy adds significant numbers of jobs, the unemployment % could slightly increase since more people are going to be joining the workforce. Thus, I would not rule out the possibility of unemployment reaching 10.2% or higher in this recession, even though I think it's unlikely.
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MK
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« Reply #8 on: April 04, 2010, 12:02:14 AM »

No.   Mid summer we will se another 10% number.
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Mint
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« Reply #9 on: April 04, 2010, 12:52:21 AM »
« Edited: April 04, 2010, 01:02:04 AM by TOSOS™ »

No, we've just seen a statistical blip in U3 UE which is so seriously flawed I no longer take it seriously. In fact the U6 rate is actually up to 16.9% now after briefly dipping earlier (which given the number of long term unemployed, is no surprise). I'm still convinced that eventually we will see a second, more severe crash.
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CARLHAYDEN
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« Reply #10 on: April 04, 2010, 12:59:38 AM »

No, we've just seen a statistical blip in U3 UE which is so seriously flawed I no longer take it seriously. In fact the U6 rate is actually up to 16.9% now after briefly dipping earlier (which given the number of long term unemployed, is no surprise). I'm still convinced that eventually we will see a second, more severe crash.

An interesting development has been the divergence between the labor department numbers and private data (ADP and Gallup).

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Mint
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« Reply #11 on: April 04, 2010, 01:21:46 AM »

Even a lot of the jobs we've 'added' the last month (80k) are temporary by the government's own admission, never mind the changes before that.
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Marokai Backbeat
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« Reply #12 on: April 04, 2010, 04:18:01 AM »

Even a lot of the jobs we've 'added' the last month (80k) are temporary by the government's own admission, never mind the changes before that.

Whoa whoa whoa, Sparky. 80k? Are you referring to Census jobs?
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HoffmanJohn
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« Reply #13 on: April 04, 2010, 01:31:42 PM »

Even a lot of the jobs we've 'added' the last month (80k) are temporary by the government's own admission, never mind the changes before that.

The latest employment report accounted for the census and the snow.
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HoffmanJohn
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« Reply #14 on: April 04, 2010, 01:37:10 PM »

No, we've just seen a statistical blip in U3 UE which is so seriously flawed I no longer take it seriously. In fact the U6 rate is actually up to 16.9% now after briefly dipping earlier (which given the number of long term unemployed, is no surprise). I'm still convinced that eventually we will see a second, more severe crash.

An interesting development has been the divergence between the labor department numbers and private data (ADP and Gallup).



really thats cool what were the developments.
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HoffmanJohn
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« Reply #15 on: April 04, 2010, 01:42:36 PM »
« Edited: April 04, 2010, 01:54:57 PM by HoffmanJohn »

No, we've just seen a statistical blip in U3 UE which is so seriously flawed I no longer take it seriously. In fact the U6 rate is actually up to 16.9% now after briefly dipping earlier (which given the number of long term unemployed, is no surprise). I'm still convinced that eventually we will see a second, more severe crash.

One shouldn't object to the other unemployment figures just because they merely understate unemployment, but instead one should take a more flexible approach. For example U1 unemployment would have no use to someone who only thinks about how much unemployment a figure accounts for, but these individuals are missing out on the ability to see/predict changes in the labor market as whole. The U1 unemployment figure is good for telling us when employers are firing less, and thus one can accurately state when the peak of a recession is over.

U1 may be able to tell some one if a recession is starting to hit bottom, or pick up again but unemployment figures can also tell us what is hapenning to prices as well. For example if the U6 unemployment rate is any where around 15%-X% than it most likely means that inflation is going to be low. This is because High unemployment=less consumer spending=drop in prices=low inflation, or disinflation/deflation. Unfortunately I have not found a use for U3, but apparently someone said it is a good measure for "base unemployment"....I wonder what that could tell me.

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