States going Republican in 2012

[redcommander]

Which of these states do you think is most likely to be won by the Republican presidential ticket in 2012?

[California8429]

Which of these states do you think will be won by the Republican presidential ticket in 2012?

your poll only allows for one vote. is it the most likely state?

[redcommander]

Which of these states do you think will be won by the Republican presidential ticket in 2012?

your poll only allows for one vote. is it the most likely state?

Yeah I screwed up on the poll question. That's what I meant though.

[RosettaStoned]

North Carolina.

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

In decreasing order of likelihood:

Indiana
North Carolina
Florida
Virginia
Ohio
Colorado
New Hampshire
Nevada
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
New Mexico
Minnesota
Iowa

[exopolitician]

In decreasing order of likelihood:

Indiana
North Carolina
Florida
Virginia
Ohio
Colorado
New Hampshire
Nevada
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
New Mexico
Minnesota
Iowa

Switch Florida and Virginia and yes.

[DS0816]

Obama will win re-election in 2012.

If the shift, in Election 2012, is an additional 3 points (which was the cases with the re-elections of 1996 Bill Clinton and 2004 George W. Bush) and, baring in mind that Woodrow Wilson is the only two-term president with a lower electoral-vote count in his re-election, I could see a couple (or few) states trading colors. Under that scenario, I'd see it potentially going this way.…


2008 Obama States as 2012 Status Quo: 28 + Neb. #02 + D.C. = 359 electoral votes
[-6 adjusted]

2012 Republican Pickups: North Carolina (15), Indiana (11), and Nebraska #02 (1) = 27 electoral votes

2012 Democratic Pickups: Georgia (16), Arizona (11), Missouri (11), and Montana (3) = 41 electoral votes

2012 Outcome
2012 Popular Vote: Obama 54.37%; Republican 44.10%
2012 Electoral Votes: Obama 373 electoral votes; Republican 165 electoral votes

[justW353]

Can you please you the proper colors?

[Mjh]

In decreasing order of likelihood:

Indiana
North Carolina
Virginia
Florida
Ohio
Colorado
Nevada
New Hampshire
Pennsylvania
Iowa
Wisconsin
New Mexico
Minnesota

I can't see the GOP winning in Minnesota or New Meixico anytime soon.

[California8429]

Indiana then North Carolina then Virginia

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

In decreasing order of likelihood:

Indiana
North Carolina
Florida
Virginia
Ohio
Colorado
New Hampshire
Nevada
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
New Mexico
Minnesota
Iowa

Switch Florida and Virginia and yes.

Well Obama's 2008 margin in Florida was quite a bit narrower than that in Virginia. Florida has seen a slight Republican trend in recent times, while the same forces that made Virginia winnable for the Dems in the first place are still at work.

[The Age Wave]

In decreasing order of likelihood:

Indiana
North Carolina
Florida
Virginia
Ohio
Colorado
New Hampshire
Nevada
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
New Mexico
Minnesota
Iowa

Switch Florida and Virginia and yes.

Well Obama's 2008 margin in Florida was quite a bit narrower than that in Virginia. Florida has seen a slight Republican trend in recent times, while the same forces that made Virginia winnable for the Dems in the first place are still at work.

And the old people there are pissed about this health care bs.

[xavier110]

From most to least likely:

1. Indiana
2. North Carolina
3. Florida
4. Ohio
5. Virginia
6. Nevada
7. Colorado
8. New Hampshire
9. Iowa
10. Pennsylvania
11. Wisconsin
12. New Mexico
13. Minnesota

#9-13 are somewhat difficult for Republicans in a typical election; #4-8 tossups; #1-3 Lean Rep.

[RosettaStoned]

From most to least likely:

1. Indiana
2. North Carolina
3. Florida
4. Ohio
5. Virginia
6. Nevada
7. Colorado
8. New Hampshire
9. Iowa
10. Pennsylvania
11. Wisconsin
12. New Mexico
13. Minnesota

#9-13 are somewhat difficult for Republicans in a typical election; #4-8 tossups; #1-3 Lean Rep.

I expect the GOP candidate to win the first three states.

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

Obama will win re-election in 2012.

If the shift, in Election 2012, is an additional 3 points (which was the cases with the re-elections of 1996 Bill Clinton and 2004 George W. Bush) and, baring in mind that Woodrow Wilson is the only two-term president with a lower electoral-vote count in his re-election, I could see a couple (or few) states trading colors. Under that scenario, I'd see it potentially going this way.…


2008 Obama States as 2012 Status Quo: 28 + Neb. #02 + D.C. = 359 electoral votes
[-6 adjusted]

2012 Republican Pickups: North Carolina (15), Indiana (11), and Nebraska #02 (1) = 27 electoral votes

2012 Democratic Pickups: Georgia (16), Arizona (11), Missouri (11), and Montana (3) = 41 electoral votes

2012 Outcome
2012 Popular Vote: Obama 54.37%; Republican 44.10%
2012 Electoral Votes: Obama 373 electoral votes; Republican 165 electoral votes

Don't be ridiculous (I know, its your nature). Arizona, Missouri, Georgia, and Montana aren't going to be picked up by Obama in 2012.

Obama will be on the defensive in all of the states mentioned in this thread.

[California8429]

Obama will win re-election in 2012.

If the shift, in Election 2012, is an additional 3 points (which was the cases with the re-elections of 1996 Bill Clinton and 2004 George W. Bush) and, baring in mind that Woodrow Wilson is the only two-term president with a lower electoral-vote count in his re-election, I could see a couple (or few) states trading colors. Under that scenario, I'd see it potentially going this way.…


2008 Obama States as 2012 Status Quo: 28 + Neb. #02 + D.C. = 359 electoral votes
[-6 adjusted]

2012 Republican Pickups: North Carolina (15), Indiana (11), and Nebraska #02 (1) = 27 electoral votes

2012 Democratic Pickups: Georgia (16), Arizona (11), Missouri (11), and Montana (3) = 41 electoral votes

2012 Outcome
2012 Popular Vote: Obama 54.37%; Republican 44.10%
2012 Electoral Votes: Obama 373 electoral votes; Republican 165 electoral votes

Don't be ridiculous (I know, its your nature). Arizona, Missouri, Georgia, and Montana aren't going to be picked up by Obama in 2012.

Obama will be on the defensive in all of the states mentioned in this thread.

[Derek]

Likely Republican- Indiana, North Carolina, Virginia
Lean Republican- Florida, Colorado
Lean Democrat- Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Oregon
Toss Up- Ohio, Nevada, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Iowa

[Conservative frontier]

Indiana, by far. I expect to go 55-45 GOP.

Then, NC, which would go 51-47

[DariusNJ]

I think one of the states that you guys are overlooking is Nevada. A few polls have shown Obama's approval in the low 40's. It seems he's really pissing off the libertarian vote in the state.

But anyway here's what I think:

Indiana: 80% chance Republican
North Carolina: 60% chance Republican
Florida: 60% chance R
Ohio: 55% chance R
Virginia: 55 chance R
Nevada: 60% chance R
Colorado: 60% chance R
New Hampshire: 50% chance
Iowa: 55% chance D
Pennsylvania: 55% chance D
Wisconsin: 55% chance D
New Mexico: 55% chance D
Minnesota: 55% chance D

[The Age Wave]

Likely Republican- Indiana, North Carolina, Virginia, Florida
Lean Republican- Colorado, Ohio, Nevada
Lean Democrat- Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Oregon
Toss Up- New Mexico, New Hampshire, Iowa

[DS0816]

…Arizona, Missouri, Georgia, and Montana aren't going to be picked up by Obama in 2012.

Obama will be on the defensive in all of the states mentioned in this thread.

Can you be more specific?

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

I think one of the states that you guys are overlooking is Nevada. A few polls have shown Obama's approval in the low 40's. It seems he's really pissing off the libertarian vote in the state.

But anyway here's what I think:

Indiana: 80% chance Republican
North Carolina: 60% chance Republican
Florida: 60% chance R
Ohio: 55% chance R
Virginia: 55 chance R
Nevada: 60% chance R
Colorado: 60% chance R
New Hampshire: 50% chance
Iowa: 55% chance D
Pennsylvania: 55% chance D
Wisconsin: 55% chance D
New Mexico: 55% chance D
Minnesota: 55% chance D

There's no way that New Hampshire is the least likely of all of these states of voting Republican. NH will certainly go before PA, WI, MN, and maybe IA and NM.

[Derek]

Yea what ru basing that off of his approval ratings in the low 40's lol.