Would Mississippi have gone to Obama?

[Derek]

or just get acorn and their child prostitution rings involved

[Hash]

or just get acorn and their child prostitution rings involved

DIAF.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

I recall Obama himself, delusional idiot that he is, claiming at some point that "if blacks just voted their numbers, we'd turn states like Mississippi blue" or something like that.

Which I think is true.  If blacks voted in the same numbers as whites, percentage wise, I'm pretty sure Obama would have carried Mississippi.  I could be wrong, though.

[HAnnA MArin County]

I recall Obama himself, delusional idiot that he is, claiming at some point that "if blacks just voted their numbers, we'd turn states like Mississippi blue" or something like that.

Which I think is true.  If blacks voted in the same numbers as whites, percentage wise, I'm pretty sure Obama would have carried Mississippi.  I could be wrong, though.

I somewhat agree but still, wouldn't Obama have to get a larger share of the white vote, and seeing as how it's Mississippi, I don't see that happening for him or for any Democrat for that matter. Mississippi's African American population would have to increase and nearly mimic the total number of whites. The state as a whole isn't very diverse; it's mostly just white and black (a very insignificant amount of Hispanics, Asians, Natives and other ethnic minorities).

However, if African American turnout was higher than the white turnout, then the state could possibly turn blue, but like I said, I just don't see that happening anytime soon.

[Ebowed]

Now you have to go back to 1956 to find a democrat who won that state and that was a segregationist. Being a segregationist is hardly in the democrat platform today.

Nor was it in 1956, and Adlai Stevenson was not a segregationist.

[Bo]

Now you have to go back to 1956 to find a democrat who won that state and that was a segregationist. Being a segregationist is hardly in the democrat platform today.

Nor was it in 1956, and Adlai Stevenson was not a segregationist.

The last Democrat who won MS and was an active segregationist was John Davis, in 1924.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

The Republican base in Mississippi is at the very, very least 48% and it would be virtually impossible for an pro-choice candidate to get near there. The huge black turnout helped make it closer than usual but it was probably maxed out.

[Ameriplan]

Color didn't matter, unless you want to flip it around and notice that over 95% of blacks voted for Obama. You can't tell me that was just because of his track record as a U.S. Senator.

Does anyone have information about what his percentage among blacks was, by state? What was his worst state with blacks?

[Derek]

That's about the strongest GOP base in a country.

[Badger]

Color didn't matter, unless you want to flip it around and notice that over 95% of blacks voted for Obama. You can't tell me that was just because of his track record as a U.S. Senator.

Nearly the same percentage of blacks voted for Kerry. And Gore. And Clinton, etc. etc. You can't tell me it had to do with the color of their skin.

Obama didn't change the Democratic share of black votes much from the usual 90+% share Democrats have received for decades. He switched a handful of Black Republicans (of which there was a tiny pool to begin with) like Colin Powell and that's about it.

[Del Tachi]

First, look at this:




Then, look at the fact that non-blacks constitute 63% of Mississippi's population.

Therefore, Obama never stood a chance of winning the state.

So if 100% of the black population (37% of total population) votes for Obama, then only 13% of the white population has to vote for Obama.  It's that far out of the question. 

[Sam Spade]

So if 100% of the black population (37% of total population) votes for Obama, then only 13% of the white population has to vote for Obama.  It's that far out of the question. 

Math is clearly not your strong point, I see.

[Bo]

First, look at this:




Then, look at the fact that non-blacks constitute 63% of Mississippi's population.

Therefore, Obama never stood a chance of winning the state.

So if 100% of the black population (37% of total population) votes for Obama, then only 13% of the white population has to vote for Obama.  It's that far out of the question. 

Wrong. Since whites are about 60% of Mississippi's population (about 3% is other), then 13/60 is about 22% and that is the percent of the white vote that Obama will need to win MS if he wins 100% of the black vote. That is assuming there is equal turnout between whites and blacks proportional to their total population.

[ag]

No shot. Unless he would have been pro life, and pro gun.

and white

[Barnes]

People are still posting in this thread?

[DS0816]

McCain won Mississippi by 13 points (56-43). This is an improvement from 2004, where Bush defeated Kerry by 20 points. Anyway, what should Obama have done to at least make Mississippi competitive?

Mississippi and neighboring Alabama go hand in hand. There's only one election on record in which they did not vote for the same candidate. In 1840, Miss. voted for William Harrison (W-Ohio), who unseated the incumbent, Martin Van Buren (D-New York), in their rematch from the previous election. (Ala. was retained by Van Buren.)

Ala. carried in 2004 for George W. Bush by over 25.5 points and Miss. backed him by more than 19.5 percent. Considering their track record, Barack Obama would have needed more than double the 7.26% by which he beat John McCain. The 2004/2008 shift was D+9.73%. Obama would've needed closer to a shift of 19.73%, rendering McCain with a U.S. Popular Vote of 40% or 41%. And that still might not have been enough. Either it would've been good enough to carry Miss. by under 1 or 2 points and let McCain have Ala. by mid- or upper-single digits—or have that shift be closer to 24.73%, while making a deliberate and concerted effort to flip both states.

Had Obama done that, and succeeded, it would've delivered Arkansas, Louisiana, Kentucky, Tennessee, West Virginia, South Carolina and—the three states McCain carried while Obama won the female vote—Georgia, Missouri, and Montana. Hell, Texas would've been gone, as would've McCain's home state of Arizona, along with Kansas, Nebraska, North Dakota, and South Dakota.

Had Barack Obama won the state of Mississippi in 2008, we would've seen the first 40 [-plus]-state landslide since the 1980s.

[Tender Branson]

Hmm, lets see:

Obama should have the name "Barry Owens"
Owens should have been whiter than Obama is
Owens should have been more moderate/conservative
Owens should have been US Senator since 2000
Hillary Clinton decided not to run in the primary
Owens picks Gene Taylor as Vice President
McCain picks Lincoln Chafee as Vice President
Owens never met with Bill Ayers and Jeremiah Wright
Polls showed a close race in MS, and Owens/Taylor actively campaigns there
Bush is 5% less popular than he was on election day 2008

Did I miss something ? Maybe then he could have won MS.

[Tender Branson]

Hmm, lets see:

Obama should have the name "Barry Owens"
Owens should have been whiter than Obama is
Owens should have been more moderate/conservative
Owens should have been US Senator since 2000 1998, when Mosley-Braun retired and Owens defeated Fitzgerald
Hillary Clinton decided not to run in the primary
Owens picks Gene Taylor as Vice President
McCain picks Lincoln Chafee as Vice President
Owens never met with Bill Ayers and Jeremiah Wright
Polls showed a close race in MS, and Owens/Taylor actively campaigns there
Bush is 5% less popular than he was on election day 2008

Did I miss something ? Maybe then he could have won MS.

[Ameriplan]

or just get acorn and their child prostitution rings involved

^^^^

[Bo]

Color didn't matter, unless you want to flip it around and notice that over 95% of blacks voted for Obama. You can't tell me that was just because of his track record as a U.S. Senator.

Nearly the same percentage of blacks voted for Kerry. And Gore. And Clinton, etc. etc. You can't tell me it had to do with the color of their skin.

Obama didn't change the Democratic share of black votes much from the usual 90+% share Democrats have received for decades. He switched a handful of Black Republicans (of which there was a tiny pool to begin with) like Colin Powell and that's about it.

Most blacks voted for Obama in the primaries due to his race, but not in the GE.