1856: Freemont vs. Buchanan with no Fillmore Canidacy

[Dancing with Myself]

Discuss who would win with maps. Pick the Vp's as well.

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

182-114

[Scam of God]

One item to remember is that the Republicans were going to win the 1856 election. Fremont was going strong.  At the last minute several supporters backed out and supported Buchanan when several prominant southerners said the election of a Republican would guaruntee secession. The threat worked and Buchanan won the election.

In the absence of Filmore, however, it wouldn't have.

Excruciatingly close, but Fremont edges it, owing largely to the fact that, without the former President on the ballot, the old Whigs have nobody to turn to save the Republican Party.  

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

One item to remember is that the Republicans were going to win the 1856 election. Fremont was going strong.  At the last minute several supporters backed out and supported Buchanan when several prominant southerners said the election of a Republican would guaruntee secession. The threat worked and Buchanan won the election.

In the absence of Filmore, however, it wouldn't have.

Excruciatingly close, but Fremont edges it, owing largely to the fact that, without the former President on the ballot, the old Whigs have nobody to turn to save the Republican Party.  

Why would Fillmore's absence swing California, Illinois, Indiana, and New Jersey?

[Scam of God]

One item to remember is that the Republicans were going to win the 1856 election. Fremont was going strong.  At the last minute several supporters backed out and supported Buchanan when several prominant southerners said the election of a Republican would guaruntee secession. The threat worked and Buchanan won the election.

In the absence of Filmore, however, it wouldn't have.

Excruciatingly close, but Fremont edges it, owing largely to the fact that, without the former President on the ballot, the old Whigs have nobody to turn to save the Republican Party.  

Why would Fillmore's absence swing California, Illinois, Indiana, and New Jersey?

California was Fremont's home state, and terribly close - Buchanan didn't win it so much as Fremont lost it. Illinois was also very close, and both Illinois and Indiana were hotbeds of Whiggery at the time. New Jersey was a swing-state, and, I think, would have gone to Fremont in the end had his trend held for him out through election day.

It could have gone to Buchanan - if it would have, New Jersey would have been the state to give it to him - but either way it would have been very close.

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

One item to remember is that the Republicans were going to win the 1856 election. Fremont was going strong.  At the last minute several supporters backed out and supported Buchanan when several prominant southerners said the election of a Republican would guaruntee secession. The threat worked and Buchanan won the election.

In the absence of Filmore, however, it wouldn't have.

Excruciatingly close, but Fremont edges it, owing largely to the fact that, without the former President on the ballot, the old Whigs have nobody to turn to save the Republican Party.  

Why would Fillmore's absence swing California, Illinois, Indiana, and New Jersey?

California was Fremont's home state, and terribly close - Buchanan didn't win it so much as Fremont lost it. Illinois was also very close, and both Illinois and Indiana were hotbeds of Whiggery at the time. New Jersey was a swing-state, and, I think, would have gone to Fremont in the end had his trend held for him out through election day.

It could have gone to Buchanan - if it would have, New Jersey would have been the state to give it to him - but either way it would have been very close.

California was close- if you call a 16 point margin close- between Buchanan and Fillmore. Home state or not, Fremont took only 18% and finished in third. I don't see how Fillmore dropping out would cause such a massive swing to Fremont.

For the other states, why do you assume that all of Fillmore's votes would go to Fremont? The Know-Nothings were not the quite the Whigs or the Republicans...

[Scam of God]

One item to remember is that the Republicans were going to win the 1856 election. Fremont was going strong.  At the last minute several supporters backed out and supported Buchanan when several prominant southerners said the election of a Republican would guaruntee secession. The threat worked and Buchanan won the election.

In the absence of Filmore, however, it wouldn't have.

Excruciatingly close, but Fremont edges it, owing largely to the fact that, without the former President on the ballot, the old Whigs have nobody to turn to save the Republican Party.  

Why would Fillmore's absence swing California, Illinois, Indiana, and New Jersey?

California was Fremont's home state, and terribly close - Buchanan didn't win it so much as Fremont lost it. Illinois was also very close, and both Illinois and Indiana were hotbeds of Whiggery at the time. New Jersey was a swing-state, and, I think, would have gone to Fremont in the end had his trend held for him out through election day.

It could have gone to Buchanan - if it would have, New Jersey would have been the state to give it to him - but either way it would have been very close.

California was close- if you call a 16 point margin close- between Buchanan and Fillmore. Home state or not, Fremont took only 18% and finished in third. I don't see how Fillmore dropping out would cause such a massive swing to Fremont.

For the other states, why do you assume that all of Fillmore's votes would go to Fremont? The Know-Nothings were not the quite the Whigs or the Republicans...

To the contrary: the Know-Nothings were essentially the last gasp of the old Whig order, and probably could have taken California whole at they tried (even then there was a lot of nativism in the state given its proximity to Mexico). California is the one state where we'd expect almost all of Fillmore's voters to go to Fremont, as it was the one state aside from New York where their cultural appeal was really pertinent.

As for the other states, you're right, not all of the disaffected Whigs would have gone over to Fremont -- only 80% or so. The Republicans, aside from the slavery question, had also largely disaffiliated with the Whigs because of the very hierarchical structure of the Party: if you weren't a tried-and-true wielder of the beige-and-blue when Clay was around, you weren't anything at all. And yet, despite this, the Whigs knew where their bread and butter was. Most of the Republicans voting in 1856 had been Whigs four years before, as were most of Fillmore's voters. I assume, which I think to be natural, that Fillmore's voters would have seen where the rest of the ex-Whigs were going and followed them.

[Psychic Octopus]

While Einzige makes some good points, I still can't see Fremont winning the election. New Jersey and California would have been close, but I still see Buchanan winning. At the time, a vote for Buchanan was one for national stability, and I can't see the nation go for the radical Fremont.

[Bo]

Buchanan-160 EV
Fremont-136 EV