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Author Topic: How many votes did Palin cost McCain?  (Read 15228 times)
Sasquatch
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« on: April 04, 2010, 04:41:55 pm »
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You hear about how Palin was a disaster for the ticket and cost him votes, but is that true at all? What states did Palin cost the ticket? If McCain had picked a Pawlenty, Romney or Ridge would he have done any better?
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« Reply #1 on: April 04, 2010, 11:38:31 pm »
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She cost McCain NC and possibly IN. Probably no other states, though.
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« Reply #2 on: April 05, 2010, 02:01:56 am »
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I would say IN and FL.
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semocrat08
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« Reply #3 on: April 05, 2010, 03:08:12 am »
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I don't think Caribou Barbie really lost Indiana for McCain, which is a pretty socially conservative state from what I gather from reading posts about the state on this site. I just think the Obama campaign targeted Indiana more than McCain who pretty much wrote the state off and just assumed that it would go red as it had for the past 40 years. The drawn-out Democratic primary probably helped Obama as well in terms of registering new and more voters (thanks Hillary Smiley).

She may have cost McCain North Carolina after she made those stupid comments down there about being in the "pro-American" parts of the country. Reminds me of that bimbo Nancy Pfotenauer who went on MSNBC and claimed that Northern Virginia wasn't the "real" Virginia because it wasn't "Southern in nature" i.e. full of racist rednecks and Bible-thumping hillbillies. Divisive comments like this usually doesn't play well with Independents.

I think the snow princess cost him Pennsylvania, if any of the "battleground" states. If you look at the counties around Pittsburgh/Allegheny County, they swung more Republican but the Philadelphia suburbs swung much more Democratic. From what I read on here, Southeast Pennsylvania is trending Democratic and I don't think the voters there really vote with their Bibles so Palin's good ole downhome folksy hockey mom appeal probably didn't do anything here but turn off independent voters who don't care about abortion or "the gays." If McCain had selected someone more socially moderate like the pro-choice Tom Ridge (obviously), he may have carried Pennsylvania, but I doubt it, but a Ridge selection would have possibly reduced the margin by which Obama carried the Keystone State (but of course, we all know that a pro-choice Republican stands about a snowball's chance in hell at being on a presidential ticket let alone in the party itself today it seems).
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Derek
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« Reply #4 on: April 05, 2010, 11:48:08 am »
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http://

STRONGLY DISAGREE!!!!!!!!!

Palin helped McCain and without her he would've lost about 54-45 and lost in a couple other conservative states. She helped to get out the GOP base who never liked McCain to begin with.  Bush is the one who cost McCain votes.
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change08
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« Reply #5 on: April 05, 2010, 11:56:45 am »
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I think Palin cancelled herself out. She enthused conservatives, yes, but she totally motivated Independants and Liberals to go out and vote for Obama.
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« Reply #6 on: April 08, 2010, 03:20:26 am »
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STRONGLY DISAGREE!!!!!!!!!

Palin helped McCain and without her he would've lost about 54-45 and lost in a couple other conservative states. She helped to get out the GOP base who never liked McCain to begin with.  Bush is the one who cost McCain votes.

I totally agree as well.

Liberals would have never voted McCain anyhow. Independents broke Obama due to the Financial Crisis. If you recall the polling numbers post Palin pick and convention, many pollsters had McCain
ahead of Obama and this with Palin on the ticket.
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Padfoot
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« Reply #7 on: April 08, 2010, 09:20:12 pm »
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I think Palin cost Obama Montana, Missouri, and possibly one or both of the Dakotas.  There's also the off-chance that Obama would have put more effort into Alaska if the female W hadn't entered the fray (remember all those weird polls from the late summer?).

As for what she cost McCain, she may have cost him North Carolina but I think Obama won all his other states without her help.  She may have boosted his margin of victory but I don't think he would have lost any of the other states he won without Palin in the race.
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« Reply #8 on: April 09, 2010, 07:49:21 am »
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Palin cost McCain votes, period. Her clearly not ready for prime time lack of gravitas and knowledge, combined with McCain's age and health issues, cost moderate persuadable votes. Anecdotal evidence is generally crap I know, but for what it's worth I can think of multiple voters I personally know for whom the idea of Palin being one septuagenarian heartbeat away from the Oval Office was a major or deciding factor in their voting for Obama.

Yes, Palin energized the conservative base upon her nomination. But does anyone think that the litany of socialism, birtherism, secret Muslim, etc. etc. would've kept the conservative base from getting worked up to defeat Obama? Almost any other conservative McCain chose could've done about the same.

Palin's choice was a gamble to attract PUMA voters and shake up the race by injecting excitement into a campaign that was consistently down in the polls. And after the briefest of media honeymoons and convention bounces it backfired badly soon after Palin started to actually, you know, talk.
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Dallasfan65
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« Reply #9 on: April 09, 2010, 11:19:14 am »
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Palin was essentially a "Hail Mary" VP pick, which was what McCain needed at the time. He needed to attract the most amount of media attention possible, appease the conservative base, and to an extent it worked.

The problem is, Palin herself was poor on the stump and acted "on her own" at times, contradicting the top of her ticket. Palin energized conservatives, but cost McCain "experience" voters, and probably other independents.

Now, the question is, who would have been a good VP pick for McCain?
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« Reply #10 on: April 09, 2010, 12:32:25 pm »
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Now, the question is, who would have been a good VP pick for McCain?

In all honesty, I don't know if that question can be answered. I suspected that Ridge would've gotten it, but he was pro-choice and I don't know how that would be received. Remember though, McCain was set to run with Lieberman up until the last minute.
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semocrat08
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« Reply #11 on: April 10, 2010, 05:25:26 pm »
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Palin was essentially a "Hail Mary" VP pick, which was what McCain needed at the time. He needed to attract the most amount of media attention possible, appease the conservative base, and to an extent it worked.

The problem is, Palin herself was poor on the stump and acted "on her own" at times, contradicting the top of her ticket. Palin energized conservatives, but cost McCain "experience" voters, and probably other independents.

Now, the question is, who would have been a good VP pick for McCain?

I think Kay Bailey Hutchison would have been a great vice presidential selection, but she is somewhat pro-choice so that automatically eliminates her. If he wanted a female, he could have selected Elizabeth Dole, but she was struggling to hold her own Senate seat, so I'm not sure. Trying to think of some other prominent GOP females - the Sisters of Maine would have been good choices but they're in the same bag as Hutchison, pro-choice and pro-gay so no chance in hell the Republicans would support them. As for House members, I don't know many too prominent GOP women aside from Palin's lunatic twin sister Michele Bachmann, the only person I know of who makes Sarah Palin look like she has a double-digit IQ.
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« Reply #12 on: April 10, 2010, 07:13:04 pm »
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She's saving him in Arizona right now.
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justW353
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« Reply #13 on: April 10, 2010, 08:23:51 pm »
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Palin was essentially a "Hail Mary" VP pick, which was what McCain needed at the time. He needed to attract the most amount of media attention possible, appease the conservative base, and to an extent it worked.

The problem is, Palin herself was poor on the stump and acted "on her own" at times, contradicting the top of her ticket. Palin energized conservatives, but cost McCain "experience" voters, and probably other independents.

Now, the question is, who would have been a good VP pick for McCain?

Basically my opinion.

Palin served her purpose. 

Still, I'd rather he have picked Ridge or Lieberman.  I hate hearing her shrill and "folksy" voice on the news every day.
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Bo
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« Reply #14 on: April 11, 2010, 04:39:45 pm »
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Now, the question is, who would have been a good VP pick for McCain?

John Thune probably would have been one of McCain's best options. Thune was a hadcore cosnervative, which would have pleased the base. Simaultenously, his nice guy persona would appeal to moderates. Not to mention that he isn't as stupid as Palin and thus isn't as prone to making large gaffes.
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Dallasfan65
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« Reply #15 on: April 11, 2010, 08:45:00 pm »
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Palin was essentially a "Hail Mary" VP pick, which was what McCain needed at the time. He needed to attract the most amount of media attention possible, appease the conservative base, and to an extent it worked.

The problem is, Palin herself was poor on the stump and acted "on her own" at times, contradicting the top of her ticket. Palin energized conservatives, but cost McCain "experience" voters, and probably other independents.

Now, the question is, who would have been a good VP pick for McCain?

I think Kay Bailey Hutchison would have been a great vice presidential selection, but she is somewhat pro-choice so that automatically eliminates her. If he wanted a female, he could have selected Elizabeth Dole, but she was struggling to hold her own Senate seat, so I'm not sure. Trying to think of some other prominent GOP females - the Sisters of Maine would have been good choices but they're in the same bag as Hutchison, pro-choice and pro-gay so no chance in hell the Republicans would support them. As for House members, I don't know many too prominent GOP women aside from Palin's lunatic twin sister Michele Bachmann, the only person I know of who makes Sarah Palin look like she has a double-digit IQ.
Which articulates my point - no female energized & appeased the base except for Sarah Palin and Bachmann - the latter is merely a representative, which raises concern in the case that McCain dies during his Presidency.

Now, the question is, who would have been a good VP pick for McCain?

John Thune probably would have been one of McCain's best options. Thune was a hadcore cosnervative, which would have pleased the base. Simaultenously, his nice guy persona would appeal to moderates. Not to mention that he isn't as stupid as Palin and thus isn't as prone to making large gaffes.

The problem is, the media reaction would have been "John Thune, South Dakota" and the voters' response would've been "yawn." McCain needed something big. Unfortunately for him, Sarah Palin was simply too gaffe-prone.
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« Reply #16 on: April 11, 2010, 09:34:20 pm »
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Palin was essentially a "Hail Mary" VP pick, which was what McCain needed at the time. He needed to attract the most amount of media attention possible, appease the conservative base, and to an extent it worked.

The problem is, Palin herself was poor on the stump and acted "on her own" at times, contradicting the top of her ticket. Palin energized conservatives, but cost McCain "experience" voters, and probably other independents.

Now, the question is, who would have been a good VP pick for McCain?

I think Kay Bailey Hutchison would have been a great vice presidential selection, but she is somewhat pro-choice so that automatically eliminates her. If he wanted a female, he could have selected Elizabeth Dole, but she was struggling to hold her own Senate seat, so I'm not sure. Trying to think of some other prominent GOP females - the Sisters of Maine would have been good choices but they're in the same bag as Hutchison, pro-choice and pro-gay so no chance in hell the Republicans would support them. As for House members, I don't know many too prominent GOP women aside from Palin's lunatic twin sister Michele Bachmann, the only person I know of who makes Sarah Palin look like she has a double-digit IQ.
Which articulates my point - no female energized & appeased the base except for Sarah Palin and Bachmann - the latter is merely a representative, which raises concern in the case that McCain dies during his Presidency.

Now, the question is, who would have been a good VP pick for McCain?

John Thune probably would have been one of McCain's best options. Thune was a hadcore cosnervative, which would have pleased the base. Simaultenously, his nice guy persona would appeal to moderates. Not to mention that he isn't as stupid as Palin and thus isn't as prone to making large gaffes.

The problem is, the media reaction would have been "John Thune, South Dakota" and the voters' response would've been "yawn." McCain needed something big. Unfortunately for him, Sarah Palin was simply too gaffe-prone.

The thing is, Thune might not have initially caused as much excitement as Palin did, but I think that as the American people would have gotten to know Thune throughout the camapign, both moderates and conservatives would have liked him to a large extent. Thus, I think that if the financial crisis would not have occured, a McCain/Thune ticket might have achieved an upset victory. Thune would have gradually given McCain extra support, in contrast to Palin, who immediately gave McCain a lot of support and then helped him lose a lot of support. Even with the financial crisis, I think that Thune would have prevented McCain from losing IN and NC and might have caused McCain to lose by 4-6% in the PV (even though McCain would have still lost by a decent margin in the end).
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« Reply #17 on: April 11, 2010, 10:09:17 pm »
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I agree with comments about Thune.  Also, Hutchison would have failed to alienate so many more educated folks as at least being qualifed to become President.  My hunch is that she would have cut Obama's lead in NY, PA, OH, and CA, but not have changed any states except possibly NC and FL.  Oh, TX would have been a much larger margin of victory for McCain, as well.
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Bo
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« Reply #18 on: April 11, 2010, 10:28:12 pm »
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I agree with comments about Thune.  Also, Hutchison would have failed to alienate so many more educated folks as at least being qualifed to become President.  My hunch is that she would have cut Obama's lead in NY, PA, OH, and CA, but not have changed any states except possibly NC and FL.  Oh, TX would have been a much larger margin of victory for McCain, as well.

In regards to Hutchison, even though she might have helped McCain with moderates, she would have hurt him with conservatives. Thus, I don't think she would have been able to flip FL or NC to McCain.
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Dallasfan65
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« Reply #19 on: April 12, 2010, 09:40:37 am »
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Palin was essentially a "Hail Mary" VP pick, which was what McCain needed at the time. He needed to attract the most amount of media attention possible, appease the conservative base, and to an extent it worked.

The problem is, Palin herself was poor on the stump and acted "on her own" at times, contradicting the top of her ticket. Palin energized conservatives, but cost McCain "experience" voters, and probably other independents.

Now, the question is, who would have been a good VP pick for McCain?

I think Kay Bailey Hutchison would have been a great vice presidential selection, but she is somewhat pro-choice so that automatically eliminates her. If he wanted a female, he could have selected Elizabeth Dole, but she was struggling to hold her own Senate seat, so I'm not sure. Trying to think of some other prominent GOP females - the Sisters of Maine would have been good choices but they're in the same bag as Hutchison, pro-choice and pro-gay so no chance in hell the Republicans would support them. As for House members, I don't know many too prominent GOP women aside from Palin's lunatic twin sister Michele Bachmann, the only person I know of who makes Sarah Palin look like she has a double-digit IQ.
Which articulates my point - no female energized & appeased the base except for Sarah Palin and Bachmann - the latter is merely a representative, which raises concern in the case that McCain dies during his Presidency.

Now, the question is, who would have been a good VP pick for McCain?

John Thune probably would have been one of McCain's best options. Thune was a hadcore cosnervative, which would have pleased the base. Simaultenously, his nice guy persona would appeal to moderates. Not to mention that he isn't as stupid as Palin and thus isn't as prone to making large gaffes.

The problem is, the media reaction would have been "John Thune, South Dakota" and the voters' response would've been "yawn." McCain needed something big. Unfortunately for him, Sarah Palin was simply too gaffe-prone.

The thing is, Thune might not have initially caused as much excitement as Palin did, but I think that as the American people would have gotten to know Thune throughout the camapign, both moderates and conservatives would have liked him to a large extent. Thus, I think that if the financial crisis would not have occured, a McCain/Thune ticket might have achieved an upset victory. Thune would have gradually given McCain extra support, in contrast to Palin, who immediately gave McCain a lot of support and then helped him lose a lot of support. Even with the financial crisis, I think that Thune would have prevented McCain from losing IN and NC and might have caused McCain to lose by 4-6% in the PV (even though McCain would have still lost by a decent margin in the end).
McCain could have prevented himself from IN and NC, if he did something other than sleep in Pennsylvania for the last month of the campaign.

Again, Thune would have locked up conservatives and had that "nice, handsome guy" image, but he just didn't generate the same buzz that a female candidate would have. Thune, in hindsight, very well may have been the better VP pick, but hindsight is 20/20. Were I in McCain's spot at the time, I probably would've done the same.
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« Reply #20 on: April 14, 2010, 12:27:37 pm »
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Dallasfan and Rochambeau are actually both right. Smiley

Other than a brief convention bounce where polls showed him pulling even or very narrowly ahead, McCain was consistently behind in the polls for the entire campaign. Dallas was spot on in describing Palin's pick as a necessary Hail Mary designed to fundamentally shake up the race.

That said, Palin being utterly not ready for prime time clearly blew up in McCain's face and cost him votes, and probably a couple states (though nowhere near enough to change the outcome). Thus Rochambeau is right that someone like Thune would've been a much better choice, albeit in 20/20 hindsight.
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« Reply #21 on: April 24, 2010, 09:03:35 pm »
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In an election with Obama's popularity involved there are alot of people who could've helped McCain. Other than Palin the only candidates I could see helping McCain more are Huckabee and Romney. The latter of which is overqualified anyways.
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« Reply #22 on: April 24, 2010, 09:42:40 pm »
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In an election with Obama's popularity involved there are alot of people who could've helped McCain. Other than Palin the only candidates I could see helping McCain more are Huckabee and Romney. The latter of which is overqualified anyways.

Mitt Romney, who served one term as Governor is overqualified?

I guess six months in office is the new quota for being Vice President...
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« Reply #23 on: April 26, 2010, 01:38:27 pm »
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No you're wrong he served two two year terms as governor. Secondly, over qualification can also mean that they outshine the actual candidate and Romney would've outshined McCain just as much as Palin. And yes for breaking a tie in the senate as your full time job, I'm satisfied with 6 months governing a state. Now you're going to bring up the Palin factor. Let me tell you something! Sarah Palin had and still has more governing experience than McCain, Obama, and Biden put together. So there!
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« Reply #24 on: May 06, 2010, 12:19:40 pm »
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People do not vote for the v.p. candidate. They vote for the top of the ticket. V.P.'s dont do anything, if that was the case Dukakis would have beat Bush in 1988.
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