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Author Topic: How many votes did Palin cost McCain?  (Read 13868 times)
cpeeks
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« Reply #50 on: May 10, 2010, 10:31:11 am »
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I agree with people living above there means, but I disagree the dem's plotted it. Bush had a majority in 2003 and couldnt get it passed?
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« Reply #51 on: May 10, 2010, 11:15:54 am »
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Yes just like the tax cut he wanted was reduced to 350 billion, he couldn't lower the amounts of frivolous law suits, couldn't get social security privitized, and couldn't open up ANWR. Say what you want about these issues. My point is that there weren't enough Republicans in congress for him at any point. They were probably receiving loans from Fannie/Freddie too and would have been deemed as making it harder for the poor to get loans.
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« Reply #52 on: May 11, 2010, 11:56:16 am »
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The housing market meltdown was staged for years to take place a few weeks before the 2008 presidential election. President Bush had his own bill in 2003 and the democrats fought it til the bill died in the senate. In 2005 McCain had his own bill that was voted against by both sides. The democrats had that up their sleeves for years. Not to mention Chris Dodd was the highest recipient of their loans with Obama coming in at number 2. They could've panicked 10 years earlier too. The collapse was bound to happen due to interest rates being too low and too many ppl being allowed to take out loans who had no intention on paying them back. The policies go back to Jimmy Carter.

So the meltdown was "staged for years" to occur just before the 08 election, presumably to help the Democratic candidate win?? And the Democrats managed to do this in through 2003-05 while the GOP controlled the White House and both houses of Congress?

You've officially jumped the shark with this post. Congratulations!
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« Reply #53 on: May 11, 2010, 12:09:47 pm »
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You're not understanding what I'm saying. It was in their pocket for years and played at their right time. They could've played it before or later. They would look so horrible with Obama's messianic campaign ending in a crucifixion without resurrection that it had to be done. Fannie/Freddie cried for help along with the Layman brothers at just the right time.
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« Reply #54 on: May 11, 2010, 01:00:55 pm »
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OMG!!!
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« Reply #55 on: May 11, 2010, 01:03:24 pm »
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You're not understanding what I'm saying. It was in their pocket for years and played at their right time. They could've played it before or later. They would look so horrible with Obama's messianic campaign ending in a crucifixion without resurrection that it had to be done. Fannie/Freddie cried for help along with the Layman brothers at just the right time.

Again, how was this "in their pocket for years" when:

a) during the time period you described the GOP had firm majorities in the House and Senate, plus Bush in the White House; and

b) how would the Democrats prepare in 2003-5 for "Obama's messianic campaign" when Obama wasn't even in the Senate for most this period, let alone a presidential candidate.

You really, really need to step back and take a few deep breaths before posting again.
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« Reply #56 on: May 11, 2010, 01:23:34 pm »
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Bush would not have been blamed for it in 2004 and in 2000 Clinton would have been blamed  and it would've cost Gore the election. It would've hurt Clinton before that. In 2004 the election was all about social issues and the War on Terror. Bush called on congress in 2003 to act on it and that would've come out in the 2004 election.
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« Reply #57 on: May 11, 2010, 01:36:14 pm »
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Derek, just really, DIAF...for the sake of the human race (don't want your tainted genes in the pool), just....nevermind, its not worth getting mod reviewed, but seriously, you're a damned fool.
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« Reply #58 on: May 11, 2010, 01:39:28 pm »
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nice rebuttle, do you have a source?
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« Reply #59 on: May 19, 2010, 06:47:14 pm »
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Palin may have cost McCain Florida. McCain is a moderate GOP old sunbelter after all.  Hard to see the religiously insane, dumber than a box of rocks Palin playing well outside the already solidly Republican Panhandle. He'd have lost with or without her. It just wasn't that close that the Veep made much deifference.
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« Reply #60 on: May 21, 2010, 07:54:04 am »
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Way to insult people ^^.
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« Reply #61 on: May 21, 2010, 08:10:49 am »
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Way to insult people ^^.

Don't worry, we all think you're dumber than a box of rocks, too.
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« Reply #62 on: May 21, 2010, 01:55:55 pm »
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Palin was essentially a "Hail Mary" VP pick, which was what McCain needed at the time. He needed to attract the most amount of media attention possible, appease the conservative base, and to an extent it worked.

The problem is, Palin herself was poor on the stump and acted "on her own" at times, contradicting the top of her ticket. Palin energized conservatives, but cost McCain "experience" voters, and probably other independents.

Now, the question is, who would have been a good VP pick for McCain?

I think Kay Bailey Hutchison would have been a great vice presidential selection, but she is somewhat pro-choice so that automatically eliminates her. If he wanted a female, he could have selected Elizabeth Dole, but she was struggling to hold her own Senate seat, so I'm not sure. Trying to think of some other prominent GOP females - the Sisters of Maine would have been good choices but they're in the same bag as Hutchison, pro-choice and pro-gay so no chance in hell the Republicans would support them. As for House members, I don't know many too prominent GOP women aside from Palin's lunatic twin sister Michele Bachmann, the only person I know of who makes Sarah Palin look like she has a double-digit IQ.

Just for you, semocrat, here's a list of the Republican women currently serving in the House:

1.   Rep. Mary Bono Mack (R-CA-45)
2.   Rep. Ginny Brown-Waite (R-FL-5)
3.   Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-FL-18)
4.   Rep. Judy Biggert (R-IL-13)
5.   Rep. Lynn Jenkins (R-KS-2)
6.   Rep. Candice Miller (R-MI-10)
7.   Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN-6)
8.   Rep. Jo Ann Emerson (R-MO-8)
9.   Rep. Virginia Foxx (R-NC-5)
10.   Rep. Sue Myrick (R-NC-9)
11.   Rep. Jean Schmidt (R-OH-2)
12.   Rep. Mary Fallin (R-OK-5)
13.   Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R-TN-7)
14.   Rep. Kay Granger (R-TX-12)
15.   Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-WA-5)
16.   Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R-WV-2)
17.   Rep. Cynthia Lummis (R-WY-AL)

17 Republican women compared to 56 Democratic women (and that's not counting Delegates from places like DC or Guam, many of whom are also women, all Democrats).

The others are right in saying that none of these women are (or at the time, were) prominent enough to be considered for VP (then again, Palin herself wasn't either). I will say this, though: out of all the Republican women currently in the House, only one of them strikes me as someone who could run for president or vice president someday, and she's running for Governor this year (therefore leaving the House): Mary Fallin. Call me crazy, but I can see it happening should she be elected Governor this year (which is extremely likely).

Cathy McMorris Rodgers is another one I can see going down this path as well, but she went to an unaccredited bible college (Pensacola Christian College in Florida) a la Bob Jones University so...I don't know. But she seems to have a brighter future as well.

But at the end of the day, I'm more focused on the Democratic women (albeit in a totally non-gay way, as I'm a straight chick, which I know you're not Wink )

(PS, in case anyone's interested, I'll do a list of all the Democratic women in the House too)
« Last Edit: May 21, 2010, 02:06:12 pm by O'Malley-Brown 2010 »Logged

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« Reply #63 on: May 21, 2010, 02:14:21 pm »
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How many votes did Palin cost McCain?  Not very many, and they were mostly in states like Massachusetts that McCain wasn't going to win anyway.
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« Reply #64 on: May 21, 2010, 03:06:47 pm »
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Yes that's true too. What's the point of losing Massachusetts by 20 or 25. There isn't a difference. When only considering democrat states, Palin cost McCain. However, she did more than plenty to help him in GOP states.
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« Reply #65 on: May 28, 2010, 03:10:01 pm »
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Palin was essentially a "Hail Mary" VP pick, which was what McCain needed at the time. He needed to attract the most amount of media attention possible, appease the conservative base, and to an extent it worked.

The problem is, Palin herself was poor on the stump and acted "on her own" at times, contradicting the top of her ticket. Palin energized conservatives, but cost McCain "experience" voters, and probably other independents.

Now, the question is, who would have been a good VP pick for McCain?

Sarah Palin suggested, for all her homey image, the sort of person who might have had a temper tantrum that could have led to a fatal stroke or heart attack for John McCain, after which we would be stuck with someone wholly unsuited to be President because of her . Sure, 2008 was a bad year for the GOP -- but as late as September 2008 the race seemed winnable for John McCain. Then the economy went sour.

1. Senator Richard Lugar (R-IN). Sure, that would have put two old men on the top of the ticket, but that would have been insurance. Lugar might have been a dull campaigner, but at the least he was well respected throughout the Midwest. He wouldn't have been as scary as Palin.

Lugar would have definitely have flipped Indiana, might have kept Virginia (which like Indiana hadn't voted for a Democratic nominee for President since 1964), Florida, and North Carolina from careening away as they did and might have made Michigan and Pennsylvania legitimate swing states late in the race. 

2. either Senator Susan Collins or Senator Olympia Snowe (R-ME). Anomalous Senators in Maine, they had to do something right. Sarah Palin did not lose to her gender.

3. Senator George Voinovich (R-OH). Another old guy, he had plenty of experience in elected politics as Mayor of Cleveland (a very Democratic city) and as Governor of Ohio.  Definitely flips Ohio and Indiana, puts Michigan and Pennsylvania in play, and likely.

4. Governor Jeb Bush (R-FL). Much better than his brother -- more competent and with little corruption. He could have made "Blame Bush" strategies backfire. 

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« Reply #66 on: May 28, 2010, 03:55:18 pm »
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How many votes did Palin cost McCain?  Not very many, and they were mostly in states like Massachusetts that McCain wasn't going to win anyway.

She almost certainly cost him Florida. 
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« Reply #67 on: May 29, 2010, 09:12:38 am »
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Palin was essentially a "Hail Mary" VP pick, which was what McCain needed at the time. He needed to attract the most amount of media attention possible, appease the conservative base, and to an extent it worked.

The problem is, Palin herself was poor on the stump and acted "on her own" at times, contradicting the top of her ticket. Palin energized conservatives, but cost McCain "experience" voters, and probably other independents.

Now, the question is, who would have been a good VP pick for McCain?

Sarah Palin suggested, for all her homey image, the sort of person who might have had a temper tantrum that could have led to a fatal stroke or heart attack for John McCain, after which we would be stuck with someone wholly unsuited to be President because of her . Sure, 2008 was a bad year for the GOP -- but as late as September 2008 the race seemed winnable for John McCain. Then the economy went sour.

1. Senator Richard Lugar (R-IN). Sure, that would have put two old men on the top of the ticket, but that would have been insurance. Lugar might have been a dull campaigner, but at the least he was well respected throughout the Midwest. He wouldn't have been as scary as Palin.

Lugar would have definitely have flipped Indiana, might have kept Virginia (which like Indiana hadn't voted for a Democratic nominee for President since 1964), Florida, and North Carolina from careening away as they did and might have made Michigan and Pennsylvania legitimate swing states late in the race. 

2. either Senator Susan Collins or Senator Olympia Snowe (R-ME). Anomalous Senators in Maine, they had to do something right. Sarah Palin did not lose to her gender.

3. Senator George Voinovich (R-OH). Another old guy, he had plenty of experience in elected politics as Mayor of Cleveland (a very Democratic city) and as Governor of Ohio.  Definitely flips Ohio and Indiana, puts Michigan and Pennsylvania in play, and likely.

4. Governor Jeb Bush (R-FL). Much better than his brother -- more competent and with little corruption. He could have made "Blame Bush" strategies backfire. 



I highly doubt Jeb Bush would've helped, but Richard Lugar is interesting for a pick. While I do think Palin helped amongst conservatives and ultimately helped him in the election, I think Mike Huckabee would've been good for the base as well. Voters would've seen another conservative governor to McCain's right.
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« Reply #68 on: May 29, 2010, 12:39:04 pm »
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Palin was essentially a "Hail Mary" VP pick, which was what McCain needed at the time. He needed to attract the most amount of media attention possible, appease the conservative base, and to an extent it worked.

The problem is, Palin herself was poor on the stump and acted "on her own" at times, contradicting the top of her ticket. Palin energized conservatives, but cost McCain "experience" voters, and probably other independents.

Now, the question is, who would have been a good VP pick for McCain?

Sarah Palin suggested, for all her homey image, the sort of person who might have had a temper tantrum that could have led to a fatal stroke or heart attack for John McCain, after which we would be stuck with someone wholly unsuited to be President because of her . Sure, 2008 was a bad year for the GOP -- but as late as September 2008 the race seemed winnable for John McCain. Then the economy went sour.

1. Senator Richard Lugar (R-IN). Sure, that would have put two old men on the top of the ticket, but that would have been insurance. Lugar might have been a dull campaigner, but at the least he was well respected throughout the Midwest. He wouldn't have been as scary as Palin.

Lugar would have definitely have flipped Indiana, might have kept Virginia (which like Indiana hadn't voted for a Democratic nominee for President since 1964), Florida, and North Carolina from careening away as they did and might have made Michigan and Pennsylvania legitimate swing states late in the race. 

2. either Senator Susan Collins or Senator Olympia Snowe (R-ME). Anomalous Senators in Maine, they had to do something right. Sarah Palin did not lose to her gender.

3. Senator George Voinovich (R-OH). Another old guy, he had plenty of experience in elected politics as Mayor of Cleveland (a very Democratic city) and as Governor of Ohio.  Definitely flips Ohio and Indiana, puts Michigan and Pennsylvania in play, and likely.

4. Governor Jeb Bush (R-FL). Much better than his brother -- more competent and with little corruption. He could have made "Blame Bush" strategies backfire. 



I highly doubt Jeb Bush would've helped, but Richard Lugar is interesting for a pick. While I do think Palin helped amongst conservatives and ultimately helped him in the election, I think Mike Huckabee would've been good for the base as well. Voters would've seen another conservative governor to McCain's right.

Palin may have energized the Republican base, but she also energized the Democratic base and offended too many moderates. Moderates ultimately decide the election. She may have gotten more people to vote for her in states that had no reasonable chance of going for Obama, but she lost swing states like Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Ohio, Virginia, and North Carolina by offending urban sophisticates. Her "Real America"  gaffe that pretended that rural America was real and urban America was not so real lost votes in urban and suburban America.

The Hail Mary pass is typically the difference between winning 20-18 and losing 25-13. The alternative to throwing the Hail Mary pass is losing 18-13, which late in the game means the same thing as lowing 18-13. It is a high-risk gamble at any other time than the end of the game or at the least the half. Sending out every eligible receiver to make the catch is to practically ensure an interception run-back for a touchdown. Had Senator McCain known of her deficiencies as a campaigner he would have gone with someone else.  Without her he might have lost 273-267 (Gore 2000 + NH + CO) instead of 365-173.
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« Reply #69 on: May 29, 2010, 09:35:22 pm »
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Palin was essentially a "Hail Mary" VP pick, which was what McCain needed at the time. He needed to attract the most amount of media attention possible, appease the conservative base, and to an extent it worked.

The problem is, Palin herself was poor on the stump and acted "on her own" at times, contradicting the top of her ticket. Palin energized conservatives, but cost McCain "experience" voters, and probably other independents.

Now, the question is, who would have been a good VP pick for McCain?

Sarah Palin suggested, for all her homey image, the sort of person who might have had a temper tantrum that could have led to a fatal stroke or heart attack for John McCain, after which we would be stuck with someone wholly unsuited to be President because of her . Sure, 2008 was a bad year for the GOP -- but as late as September 2008 the race seemed winnable for John McCain. Then the economy went sour.

1. Senator Richard Lugar (R-IN). Sure, that would have put two old men on the top of the ticket, but that would have been insurance. Lugar might have been a dull campaigner, but at the least he was well respected throughout the Midwest. He wouldn't have been as scary as Palin.

Lugar would have definitely have flipped Indiana, might have kept Virginia (which like Indiana hadn't voted for a Democratic nominee for President since 1964), Florida, and North Carolina from careening away as they did and might have made Michigan and Pennsylvania legitimate swing states late in the race. 

2. either Senator Susan Collins or Senator Olympia Snowe (R-ME). Anomalous Senators in Maine, they had to do something right. Sarah Palin did not lose to her gender.

3. Senator George Voinovich (R-OH). Another old guy, he had plenty of experience in elected politics as Mayor of Cleveland (a very Democratic city) and as Governor of Ohio.  Definitely flips Ohio and Indiana, puts Michigan and Pennsylvania in play, and likely.

4. Governor Jeb Bush (R-FL). Much better than his brother -- more competent and with little corruption. He could have made "Blame Bush" strategies backfire. 



I highly doubt Jeb Bush would've helped, but Richard Lugar is interesting for a pick. While I do think Palin helped amongst conservatives and ultimately helped him in the election, I think Mike Huckabee would've been good for the base as well. Voters would've seen another conservative governor to McCain's right.

Palin may have energized the Republican base, but she also energized the Democratic base and offended too many moderates. Moderates ultimately decide the election. She may have gotten more people to vote for her in states that had no reasonable chance of going for Obama, but she lost swing states like Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Ohio, Virginia, and North Carolina by offending urban sophisticates. Her "Real America"  gaffe that pretended that rural America was real and urban America was not so real lost votes in urban and suburban America.

The Hail Mary pass is typically the difference between winning 20-18 and losing 25-13. The alternative to throwing the Hail Mary pass is losing 18-13, which late in the game means the same thing as lowing 18-13. It is a high-risk gamble at any other time than the end of the game or at the least the half. Sending out every eligible receiver to make the catch is to practically ensure an interception run-back for a touchdown. Had Senator McCain known of her deficiencies as a campaigner he would have gone with someone else.  Without her he might have lost 273-267 (Gore 2000 + NH + CO) instead of 365-173.

He may have won FL and that's it or Ohio is a possibility. After the financial meltdown, McCain wasn't lucky to become Walter Mondale or even Bob Dole. No Palin = Obama 55 McCain 45 plus Missouri and Montana fall to Obama. Palin energized the GOP and never underestimate what someone like that can do to help the party. Conservatives like myself may have stayed home on election night.
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« Reply #70 on: June 01, 2010, 12:42:46 am »
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Two ways I wanna answer: Which states did Sarah Palin help John McCain? Which states did she "cost" John McCain?

I have to look at the five states that actually shifted Republican (for the John McCain/Sarah Palin ticket): Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and West Virginia. With Okla. and W.Va. nearly identical in the 2008 vote (compared to 2004), I'm not so sure Palin made all the difference. I think she must have been a big part of Ark. going the opposite direction of the country: 10 points further for the GOP. (The female vote in Ark. stuck it to Obama: 39%, down from 49% for 2004 John Kerry.) La. may apply, but to a lesser-dramatic degree, because both genders shifted more Republican. Tenn. women shifted to Obama, 47% in the former presidential bellwether state (compared to 2004 John Kerry getting 43% of their vote); it's men who may have explain why the McCain/Palin ticket did better than George W. Bush/Dick Cheney: Obama got just 36% of their vote, compared to Kerry getting 41%.

Where Sarah Palin might've been really effective, in a state that otherwise would've gone for Barack Obama, was probably in Missouri. The southeastern part of the state actually shifted more Republican, and they pretty much battled with Kansas City and St. Louis areas to keep the state from flipping. (Obama garnered 50% of the female vote, 48% of the male vote; 2004 John Kerry reaped 45% of the female vote, 47% of the male vote.) As for Sarah Palin costing John McCain in Indiana and North Carolina: these two were considered targets, potential flips, well before Palin joined the ticket in late-August 2008. But of these two, I'd choose N.C. Women voted for Obama with 55% of their N.C. vote (2004 John Kerry received 46%, even with the state's U.S. Senator, John Edwards, his running mate)—stronger than other classic swing states like Florida (52% female vote) and Ohio (53%). Even better than other then-GOP bastions Virginia (53%) and Indiana (52%). Obama's 55% of the female N.C. matched Iowa.
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« Reply #71 on: June 08, 2010, 10:51:35 pm »
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Palin helped McCain in every state that McCain won. The Obama states Palin hurt McCain. The country was very divided on her. I still think overall McCain could've lost by 10-12 points without her.
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« Reply #72 on: June 10, 2010, 06:33:21 pm »
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Palin helped McCain in every state that McCain won. The Obama states Palin hurt McCain. The country was very divided on her. I still think overall McCain could've lost by 10-12 points without her.

lol
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« Reply #73 on: June 10, 2010, 09:06:58 pm »
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Palin helped McCain in every state that McCain won. The Obama states Palin hurt McCain. The country was very divided on her. I still think overall McCain could've lost by 10-12 points without her.

lol

You think he would've done better or worse?
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« Reply #74 on: June 10, 2010, 09:11:03 pm »
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Palin helped McCain in every state that McCain won. The Obama states Palin hurt McCain. The country was very divided on her. I still think overall McCain could've lost by 10-12 points without her.

lol

You think that he'd do better or worse without her?
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