DS0816
Sr. Member
Posts: 3,140
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« on: June 01, 2010, 12:42:46 AM » |
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« edited: June 01, 2010, 12:54:24 AM by DS0816 »
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Two ways I wanna answer: Which states did Sarah Palin help John McCain? Which states did she "cost" John McCain?
I have to look at the five states that actually shifted Republican (for the John McCain/Sarah Palin ticket): Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and West Virginia. With Okla. and W.Va. nearly identical in the 2008 vote (compared to 2004), I'm not so sure Palin made all the difference. I think she must have been a big part of Ark. going the opposite direction of the country: 10 points further for the GOP. (The female vote in Ark. stuck it to Obama: 39%, down from 49% for 2004 John Kerry.) La. may apply, but to a lesser-dramatic degree, because both genders shifted more Republican. Tenn. women shifted to Obama, 47% in the former presidential bellwether state (compared to 2004 John Kerry getting 43% of their vote); it's men who may have explain why the McCain/Palin ticket did better than George W. Bush/Dick Cheney: Obama got just 36% of their vote, compared to Kerry getting 41%.
Where Sarah Palin might've been really effective, in a state that otherwise would've gone for Barack Obama, was probably in Missouri. The southeastern part of the state actually shifted more Republican, and they pretty much battled with Kansas City and St. Louis areas to keep the state from flipping. (Obama garnered 50% of the female vote, 48% of the male vote; 2004 John Kerry reaped 45% of the female vote, 47% of the male vote.) As for Sarah Palin costing John McCain in Indiana and North Carolina: these two were considered targets, potential flips, well before Palin joined the ticket in late-August 2008. But of these two, I'd choose N.C. Women voted for Obama with 55% of their N.C. vote (2004 John Kerry received 46%, even with the state's U.S. Senator, John Edwards, his running mate)—stronger than other classic swing states like Florida (52% female vote) and Ohio (53%). Even better than other then-GOP bastions Virginia (53%) and Indiana (52%). Obama's 55% of the female N.C. matched Iowa.
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