How many votes did Palin cost McCain?

[pbrower2a]

Palin was essentially a "Hail Mary" VP pick, which was what McCain needed at the time. He needed to attract the most amount of media attention possible, appease the conservative base, and to an extent it worked.

The problem is, Palin herself was poor on the stump and acted "on her own" at times, contradicting the top of her ticket. Palin energized conservatives, but cost McCain "experience" voters, and probably other independents.

Now, the question is, who would have been a good VP pick for McCain?

Sarah Palin suggested, for all her homey image, the sort of person who might have had a temper tantrum that could have led to a fatal stroke or heart attack for John McCain, after which we would be stuck with someone wholly unsuited to be President because of her . Sure, 2008 was a bad year for the GOP -- but as late as September 2008 the race seemed winnable for John McCain. Then the economy went sour.

1. Senator Richard Lugar (R-IN). Sure, that would have put two old men on the top of the ticket, but that would have been insurance. Lugar might have been a dull campaigner, but at the least he was well respected throughout the Midwest. He wouldn't have been as scary as Palin.

Lugar would have definitely have flipped Indiana, might have kept Virginia (which like Indiana hadn't voted for a Democratic nominee for President since 1964), Florida, and North Carolina from careening away as they did and might have made Michigan and Pennsylvania legitimate swing states late in the race. 

2. either Senator Susan Collins or Senator Olympia Snowe (R-ME). Anomalous Senators in Maine, they had to do something right. Sarah Palin did not lose to her gender.

3. Senator George Voinovich (R-OH). Another old guy, he had plenty of experience in elected politics as Mayor of Cleveland (a very Democratic city) and as Governor of Ohio.  Definitely flips Ohio and Indiana, puts Michigan and Pennsylvania in play, and likely.

4. Governor Jeb Bush (R-FL). Much better than his brother -- more competent and with little corruption. He could have made "Blame Bush" strategies backfire. 

[pbrower2a]

Palin was essentially a "Hail Mary" VP pick, which was what McCain needed at the time. He needed to attract the most amount of media attention possible, appease the conservative base, and to an extent it worked.

The problem is, Palin herself was poor on the stump and acted "on her own" at times, contradicting the top of her ticket. Palin energized conservatives, but cost McCain "experience" voters, and probably other independents.

Now, the question is, who would have been a good VP pick for McCain?

Sarah Palin suggested, for all her homey image, the sort of person who might have had a temper tantrum that could have led to a fatal stroke or heart attack for John McCain, after which we would be stuck with someone wholly unsuited to be President because of her . Sure, 2008 was a bad year for the GOP -- but as late as September 2008 the race seemed winnable for John McCain. Then the economy went sour.

1. Senator Richard Lugar (R-IN). Sure, that would have put two old men on the top of the ticket, but that would have been insurance. Lugar might have been a dull campaigner, but at the least he was well respected throughout the Midwest. He wouldn't have been as scary as Palin.

Lugar would have definitely have flipped Indiana, might have kept Virginia (which like Indiana hadn't voted for a Democratic nominee for President since 1964), Florida, and North Carolina from careening away as they did and might have made Michigan and Pennsylvania legitimate swing states late in the race. 

2. either Senator Susan Collins or Senator Olympia Snowe (R-ME). Anomalous Senators in Maine, they had to do something right. Sarah Palin did not lose to her gender.

3. Senator George Voinovich (R-OH). Another old guy, he had plenty of experience in elected politics as Mayor of Cleveland (a very Democratic city) and as Governor of Ohio.  Definitely flips Ohio and Indiana, puts Michigan and Pennsylvania in play, and likely.

4. Governor Jeb Bush (R-FL). Much better than his brother -- more competent and with little corruption. He could have made "Blame Bush" strategies backfire. 

I highly doubt Jeb Bush would've helped, but Richard Lugar is interesting for a pick. While I do think Palin helped amongst conservatives and ultimately helped him in the election, I think Mike Huckabee would've been good for the base as well. Voters would've seen another conservative governor to McCain's right.

Palin may have energized the Republican base, but she also energized the Democratic base and offended too many moderates. Moderates ultimately decide the election. She may have gotten more people to vote for her in states that had no reasonable chance of going for Obama, but she lost swing states like Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Ohio, Virginia, and North Carolina by offending urban sophisticates. Her "Real America"  gaffe that pretended that rural America was real and urban America was not so real lost votes in urban and suburban America.

The Hail Mary pass is typically the difference between winning 20-18 and losing 25-13. The alternative to throwing the Hail Mary pass is losing 18-13, which late in the game means the same thing as lowing 18-13. It is a high-risk gamble at any other time than the end of the game or at the least the half. Sending out every eligible receiver to make the catch is to practically ensure an interception run-back for a touchdown. Had Senator McCain known of her deficiencies as a campaigner he would have gone with someone else.  Without her he might have lost 273-267 (Gore 2000 + NH + CO) instead of 365-173.