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| | | |-+  Would Kerry have won in 2004 with a female VP?
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Yes   -25 (36.2%)
No   -44 (63.8%)
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Author Topic: Would Kerry have won in 2004 with a female VP?  (Read 4192 times)
Bo
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« on: April 05, 2010, 01:39:37 am »
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If so, with which female VP (or VPs) specifically.
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Derek
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« Reply #1 on: April 05, 2010, 11:56:25 am »
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No there wasn't much Kerry could do to win that election he was pathetic.  Only reason he was close was cuz of Iraq.
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« Reply #2 on: April 05, 2010, 12:52:02 pm »
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No there wasn't much Kerry could do to win that election he was pathetic.  Only reason he was close was cuz of Iraq.

The only reason Bush won was Iraq.
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« Reply #3 on: April 05, 2010, 02:06:27 pm »
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No there wasn't much Kerry could do to win that election he was pathetic.  Only reason he was close was cuz of Iraq.

The only reason Bush won was Iraq.

^^^

Also, is it really that hard to write "because"?  You really have to write cuz?  That annoys the hell out of me.
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« Reply #4 on: April 05, 2010, 04:45:51 pm »
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Did Bush win the female vote or something?  Edwards main problem wasn't his penis (guess it was eventually) but that he was a weak candidate in that race.  He wasted a chance to shred Cheney in the debate.  Democrats should have gone with a Dean/Graham ticket for the best contrast against Bush/Cheney.  Ever read Bob Shrum's account of Kerry making the VP pick by the way?  Kerry was obviously creeped out by Edwards but picked him anyway.  Look at how awful the VP picks have been in the last decade...

Cheney! Lieberman! Edwards! Palin!!  Biden is the only one who is not absurdly terrible, which I guess reflects well on Obama.
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« Reply #5 on: April 05, 2010, 04:58:56 pm »
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Did Bush win the female vote or something? 

LOL NO!

Quote
Biden is the only one who is not absurdly terrible, which I guess reflects well on Obama.

LOL NO!
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« Reply #6 on: April 05, 2010, 06:06:51 pm »
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Vice-presdent picks really are not that influential. Maybe Gephardt could have swung Missouri and Iowa, although I don't think it would have been that influential.
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« Reply #7 on: April 05, 2010, 07:17:18 pm »
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No.
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« Reply #8 on: April 13, 2010, 12:58:45 pm »
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The perception of Iraq was that it was the right decision but things were going poorly. Remember the majority of ppl who said Iraq was the most important issue voted for Kerry. Without Iraq as an issue, I think Bush would've won 53-47.
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« Reply #9 on: April 13, 2010, 01:41:30 pm »
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Bush was pretty much bound to win, it was simply Kerry's job of keeping it as narrow as possible, which I think he did.
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« Reply #10 on: August 24, 2010, 07:06:00 pm »
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Vice-presdent picks really are not that influential. Maybe Gephardt could have swung Missouri and Iowa, although I don't think it would have been that influential.

Graham would swing Florida, probably.

However, as for VP candidate, As of female possibilities, I don't see either Lincoln (Arkansas), Landrieu (Louisiana) nor Napolitano (Arizona) swinging each of the mentioned states.
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« Reply #11 on: August 26, 2010, 10:03:06 am »
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I think blanche lincoln was popular by 2004. she won with 56% of the vote, and kerry did well in arkansas. he would have carried it, but 6 EV would not be enough to win.
with clintyon, probably he would have carried new mexico, iowa and probably arkansas.

If I were Kerry, I would have picked McCain.
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« Reply #12 on: August 26, 2010, 10:10:27 am »
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McCain wouldn't accept, Clinton would have been considered too polarizing a figure.
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« Reply #13 on: August 26, 2010, 04:17:27 pm »
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The only female candidate in 2004 that would have helped Kerry would have been Hillary Clinton and there was no way she was going to be a VP to John Kerry.
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« Reply #14 on: August 31, 2010, 11:00:32 pm »
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What killed Kerry was that he only got 51% of the female vote... as opposed to Gore getting 55% - and the swing to Bush among latinos probably cost him NM.

Clinton's "soccer moms" had become Bush's security moms.

He did keep Bush to the lowest re-election PV margin ever.

Kerry could have won it if he actually called out of the swiftboat BS... as BS ...frankly I think that would have been enough. 
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« Reply #15 on: September 01, 2010, 12:38:37 am »
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The perception of Iraq was that it was the right decision but things were going poorly. Remember the majority of ppl who said Iraq was the most important issue voted for Kerry. Without Iraq as an issue, I think Bush would've won 53-47.

^^
Yes, pretty much.  I think Iraq was a net drag on Bush at the time.  He probably would have won by a bit more if he'd decided not to invade Iraq, and instead simply concentrated on Afghanistan, which was a much more popular war.

An interesting "what if" though would be what would happen if there'd been no 9/11, no Afghan War, and no Iraq War.  There's a decent chance that Bush would have lost.
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« Reply #16 on: September 01, 2010, 01:08:04 pm »
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Maybe with Hillary as his VP. I would have picked McCain, as well.
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HagridOfTheDeep
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« Reply #17 on: April 06, 2012, 09:24:19 am »
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The only reason HRC seems stomachable now is because of her breakout 2008 run. She earned a lot more credibility and admiration on the campaign trail. From both sides of the spectrum.

I think Kerry picking Clinton out of the blue like that might have been the worst thing he could've possibly done to swing Republicans and Independents. She hadn't been vetted by a campaign.
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Miles
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« Reply #18 on: April 06, 2012, 10:55:12 am »
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How bout Blanche Lincoln? She was popular in her home state and she could have helped swing Iowa and rural Ohio.
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OC
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« Reply #19 on: April 06, 2012, 12:08:34 pm »
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Choices
1.) HRC
2.) Jean Shaheen
3.) Kennedy Townsend

My choice if I had to would be 3.)
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Kevin
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« Reply #20 on: April 06, 2012, 03:57:54 pm »
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Choices
1.) HRC
2.) Jean Shaheen
3.) Kennedy Townsend

My choice if I had to would be 3.)

Why Kennedy Townsend of all people, She lost a gubernatorial race in one of the most solidly Democratic states in the country. And not to mention one that has elected Democrats to the governorship, all but 2 times in it's post-WWII history.
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« Reply #21 on: April 06, 2012, 04:02:22 pm »
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Shannon Obien lost too in a solidly blue state and Kennedy Townsend loss due to Paris Glendening not because of her own misfortunes. If Claire McCaskill could rebound from her 2004 defeat and be elected in 2006 so could Kennedy. But Kerry of the other 2 choices would not have picked those either.
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phk
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« Reply #22 on: April 06, 2012, 09:53:28 pm »
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Kerry had already overperformed in 2004 for a few reasons.

I'll go as far as saying that without Iraq and a better labor market, Bush could have hit 320/330 eVs.
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Ebowed
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« Reply #23 on: July 27, 2012, 07:38:08 am »
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Ever read Bob Shrum's account of Kerry making the VP pick by the way?  Kerry was obviously creeped out by Edwards but picked him anyway.

If I'm thinking of the same account, that is one of my favourite bits of modern political trivia, and indicative of Edwards' slimey character.
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« Reply #24 on: October 01, 2012, 07:10:20 pm »
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Kerry underperformed among women... so yes he would have won. 
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If it comes to that, yes, but there is no reason to be that pessimistic.
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