Republican path to victory in 2012

[zorkpolitics]

In 2008 Obama won 365 Electoral votes, since it takes 270 EV to win, he has a significant margin to lose states and still win. However, the 2012 election will be after apportionment which will shift a net 6 EV to Republican leaning states (not counting the states listed below), so Obama can lose 89 EV and still win. Below is a list swing states Obama won rank ordered from narrowest win to largest margin. At this point I think Obama would lose NC, IN, FL, OH, VA losing 85 EV, so for a Republican to win they need to win only one of the remaining swing states 9 swing states.

State          Winning % 200    2012 EV
North Carolina   49.7                  15
Indiana           49.9                  11
Florida            50.9                  28
Ohio               51.4                  18
Virginia           52.6                  13
      
Colorado          53.7                   9
Iowa               53.9                   6
Minnesota         54.1                 10
New Hampshire  54.1                   4
Pennsylvania    54.5                 20
Nevada           55.2                   6
Wisconsin        56.2                 10
Oregon            56.7                   7
New Mexico      56.9                   5

Can Obama be defeated in '12?  Where shoudlt eh Republicans focus to win?

[DS0816]

In 2008 Obama won 365 Electoral votes, since it takes 270 EV to win, he has a significant margin to lose states and still win. However, the 2012 election will be after apportionment which will shift a net 6 EV to Republican leaning states (not counting the states listed below), so Obama can lose 89 EV and still win. Below is a list swing states Obama won rank ordered from narrowest win to largest margin. At this point I think Obama would lose NC, IN, FL, OH, VA losing 85 EV, so for a Republican to win they need to win only one of the remaining swing states 9 swing states.

State          Winning % 200    2012 EV
North Carolina   49.7                  15
Indiana           49.9                  11
Florida            50.9                  28
Ohio               51.4                  18
Virginia           52.6                  13
      
Colorado          53.7                   9
Iowa               53.9                   6
Minnesota         54.1                 10
New Hampshire  54.1                   4
Pennsylvania    54.5                 20
Nevada           55.2                   6
Wisconsin        56.2                 10
Oregon            56.7                   7
New Mexico      56.9                   5

Can Obama be defeated in '12?  Where shoudlt eh Republicans focus to win?

Can you give us a map?

[auburntiger]

Here is my thought:

Indiana will be back in our column regardless who we put up because we won't take it for granted again. If Mitch Daniels is the nominee we're looking at 60% there.

Florida - all about the I-4 Corridor - we got beaten pretty good in Tampa and pounded in Orlando. I wouldn't waste time in the panhandle or south florida.

North Carolina - same story...we got pounded in Charlotte, Greensboro..places that should be 50/50. Getting those back to 2004 margins would be hard, halfway would be good enough to win the state.

Virginia - look at McDonnell playbook for starters...focus more on fiscal issues. Loudoun, Prince William are winnable, but Fairfax is not.

Ohio - don't really know much about it. my gut tells me Cincinatti turnout is a huge factor.

Colorado - I think it may continue to get tougher for Republicans to win here with hardline social rhetoric and big spending of the Bush years. I could see this one being more Dem than IA and PA next cycle.

Iowa - seems like east vs. west turnout

Minnesota/Wisconsin - both have strong Democratic history, and have similar demographics. Rural voters here are more liberal than average. Once again, if you can't win suburbs, you can't be competitive statewide.

Pennsylvania - you have to be competitive in the Philly suburbs to win. If the GOP can get those margins to what Bush had in 2004 combined with McCain's 2008 performance in the west, they could take take the state, while at the same time, central PA must turnout very high to counteract the Democratic east.

New Hampshire - I think the type of campaigning that McDonnell did in Virginia could work here as well...focus on fiscal conservatism with social issues taking the back seat of the bus.

Nevada - Once again, the GOP needs to get its 2004 margins back in Clarke County and make inroads with HIspanics. The GOP got blown away here compared with its historical performance. But I think the economy is what drove up the huge Democratic margin. Nevada is still a swing state.

New Mexico - I don't think this one goes Republican unless its an Obama scale victory.

Oregon - only goes Republican in a 1992-style Republican victory or >55% GOP victory.



*****also, the GOP needs to be careful not to take for granted MIssouri and Arizona!! I think we got lucky in MIssouri, and I was quite frankly surprised we won it.



So all of that to answer your question, yes Obama can be defeated, but not with Huckabee, Palin, Pawlenty, or Romney.

I think Mitch Daniels is the best candidate to defeat him. He has quite an impressive resume, and I definitely think it'll be a tight race.

My opinion right now is that Daniels picks up Indiana, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida.

>90% Blue = Safe Republican
>50% Blue = 2008 Dem state where Republicans have the best chance for pickups
>30% Blue = 2008 GOP states where they need to play some defense
          Gray = 50/50
>30% Pink = if the GOP wins these, the election will have been decided already.
>50% Red  = possible, but long shots at the moment
>90% Red  = GOP has no shot of winning against Obama and should spend little if any resources there.

[California8429]

Colorado would go GOP in 2012 if there's a viable choice

[RosettaStoned]

The GOP should focus on the Rust Belt and the Mountain West.

[pbrower2a]

In 2008 Obama won 365 Electoral votes, since it takes 270 EV to win, he has a significant margin to lose states and still win. However, the 2012 election will be after apportionment which will shift a net 6 EV to Republican leaning states (not counting the states listed below), so Obama can lose 89 EV and still win. Below is a list swing states Obama won rank ordered from narrowest win to largest margin. At this point I think Obama would lose NC, IN, FL, OH, VA losing 85 EV, so for a Republican to win they need to win only one of the remaining swing states 9 swing states.

State          Winning % 200    2012 EV
North Carolina   49.7                  15
Indiana           49.9                  11
Florida            50.9                  28
Ohio               51.4                  18
Virginia           52.6                  13
      
Colorado          53.7                   9
Iowa               53.9                   6
Minnesota         54.1                 10
New Hampshire  54.1                   4
Pennsylvania    54.5                 20
Nevada           55.2                   6
Wisconsin        56.2                 10
Oregon            56.7                   7
New Mexico      56.9                   5

Can Obama be defeated in '12?  Where shoudlt eh Republicans focus to win?

The 2012 election is not for any Republican to win; it is for Obama to lose re-election.

One of these things must happen:

1. Both of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan will have to blow up on him.

The opportunity has faded even though the "Blame it on Bush" excuse has also faded.

2. Economic collapse.

It's hard to predict how the economy goes. Supposedly, commercial real estate is a big hazard. I doubt that President Obama would use a stimulus to bail out real-estate tycoons who overbuilt in the Double-Zero decade only to find a glut of properties that they can no longer lease.

3. Cost-push inflation.  Such is 1970s economics -- an overheated economy with genuine shortages. That will take its time to arrive -- well after the 2012 election, if at all.

4. Diplomatic disaster. Think of the Iranian hostage crisis of 1980. Can anyone predict what ally of ours will go so bad so fast as Iran did in 1979?

5. Sex scandal involving the President and a non-black female. I can't predict that.

Should one or two such things happen, then the least of President Obama's concerns will be an electoral strategy,  as no electoral strategy can save him.  But should things go well, incumbency will overpower everything else. The GOP will need someone with Reagan-like political skills and an excellent organization. Guess who already has those!

   

 

[pbrower2a]

Before we even look at the 2012 way to victory we must look at the 2008 way to a loss:

States and DC  culture in deep red had not voted for a Republican nominee for President since at least 1988. Those were 242 electoral votes, more than 90% of the way to winning the election. By August those states seemed very solid. The culture of not voting for right-wing Republican nominees for President was apparently much of the statewide culture in politics. Add to those states three states in red (Iowa, New Hampshire, and New Mexico), and Obama locked those up early. That established 264 electoral votes for Senator Obama, basically Gore 2000+ NH or Kerry 2004 + IA+ NM. Five more electoral votes (Nevada or West Virginia) would have put the election into the House of Representatives.

At that point the Republican nominee had lots of ways to lose and few in which to win. In most years the Republicans could rely on all states in deep blue -- southern states that hadn't voted for a northern liberal for a very long time.  The other states in gray would seemingly have been up for grabs.

The good news for Republicans: West Virginia and Georgia drifted out of contention. Montana wasn't going to make a difference. The bad news: Indiana, Virginia, and North Carolina drifted into contention.    To be sure, Obama was going to win Indiana only if he also won Ohio and North Carolina if he won Virginia...   but by September the race boiled down to in essence six states in which Obama had roughly a 50% chance of winning -- states that the Republicans dared not lose: Colorado, Florida, Missouri, Nevada (with a Democratic House majority), Ohio,  and Virginia. One win among those six would win the election for Obama. At that point, the Republicans one chance in 64 of winning the Presidency.

Those states are different enough that no Republican nominee could tailor an appeal for winning all of those states at once.     

Colorado and Virginia slipped out of contention; the subprime mortgage meltdown handed Nevada to Obama. John McCain took on the gamble of trying to swing Pennsylvania, Minnesota, and Wisconsin,  but that effort failed -- and Obama was able to win a few more states.

Assume that the political cultures in the states change little from 2008 to 2012.  The so-called Blue Firewall will be almost as firm as in 2008 unless President Obama is a disaster. States in contention in 2008 will be in contention in 2012, and that nothing so strange as Obama winning over Clinton voters of 1992 and 1996 in a bunch of states that rejected him by large numbers or Texas goes D happens. That's what we start with. 

Arizona won't be so solid, as it won't have a statewide politician as a nominee for either President or Vice-President.  Nevada probably will be closer because the panic of 2008 will be a memory. 

In 2012, Gore 2000 + NH + CO will not be enough for an Obama win.

Gore 2000 + NH  would have been enough in 2000, but not enough in 2004 or 2008.
Gore 2000 + NH +NV with a Democratic vote in the House would have been enough in 2008, and Gore 2000 + NH + CO would have been enough to win the Presidency outright in 2008 -- but will be inadequate in 2012.
 

But these win for Obama in 2012:

Gore 2008 + NH + CO + NV

Gore 2008 + NH + VA

Gore 2008 + NH + OH

Gore 2008 + NH + FL

Gore 2008 + NH + MO + CO

Gore 2008 + NH + MO + NV

Gore 2008 + NH + MO + MT

Gore 2008 + NH + MO + NE-02


If little changes from 2008, then the Republican nominee will have an easier chance of winning the Presidency due to apportionment. There may be fewer ways in which to lose.

The states in question are different enough that one can't win them all by tailoring a message that fits them all without putting Obama's likely win of the intact Blue Firewall. Without putting the Blue Firewall in danger, the GOP will need not only a miracle but several at once.

   

[Mjh]

First of all the GOP needs to win back the states that the Democrats really have no business winning. I am talking of course about Indiana, Virginia, North Carolina and Florida. I think that will be the easy part in 2012, assuming that the economy is still bad.
Then of course it is swing states like Colorado, Ohio and Nevada, which the GOP needs to win. It is far from impossible, given a competent Republican candidate (for example Mitch Daniels).

I do not beleive the GOP will be able to win in New Hampshire, Pennsylvania or Wisconsin in 2012, but maybe sometime down the line.

[pbrower2a]

First of all the GOP needs to win back the states that the Democrats really have no business winning. I am talking of course about Indiana, Virginia, North Carolina and Florida. I think that will be the easy part in 2012, assuming that the economy is still bad.

Demographic trends show that those states have been moving D. Recent Republican wins in Virginia could backfire as the Republicans in power take extreme stands on "social issues" in a state that has yet to show itself clearly extreme. Florida has been a legitimate swing state for a long time. Indiana is new in that role, seeming to follow a pattern in such states as Michigan and Illinois. North Carolina is getting lots of Yankee transplants.   

Let's put it this way: in 2004 the Republicans didn't have to contest those states. In 2008 they were forced to defend them. 2012 stands to be much the same if Barack Obama is an effective President.  For most Americans, that will be enough. Partisan Republicans will still despise him, but partisan Democrats despised Ronald Reagan, too.   

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It will take more than a competent candidate unless Obama fails as President. Since 1900, 13 of 18 incumbent Presidents have won election if they chose to run. 

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Sometime down the line? OK. Maybe the Republican Party will have redefined itself so that it has a new coalition for victory. But not by 2012.

[redcommander]

First of all the GOP needs to win back the states that the Democrats really have no business winning. I am talking of course about Indiana, Virginia, North Carolina and Florida. I think that will be the easy part in 2012, assuming that the economy is still bad.
Then of course it is swing states like Colorado, Ohio and Nevada, which the GOP needs to win. It is far from impossible, given a competent Republican candidate (for example Mitch Daniels).

I do not beleive the GOP will be able to win in New Hampshire, Pennsylvania or Wisconsin in 2012, but maybe sometime down the line.

I think Daniels could win at least New Hampshire or Pennsylvania. I don't see a Bush 20 electoral vote difference Republican win occurring if the Republicans do manage defeating Obama in 2012.

[Derek]

Oh the GOP will easily win Indiana and North Carolina next time and even FL and VA.  That would put them at 240 plus the 8 from the electoral map change.  I say it comes down to Ohio at the very worst for the GOP.  The GOP must focus on school choice, repealing the healthcare bill, a new tax system, and most important is the lack of government intervention in our lives.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Steal back Colorado, simple as that. 

If Obama isn't doing so hot late in 2012, I can almost guarantee you that those normally conservative states that took a chance on the more liberal Obama will flip back; especially with an energized conservative base that has a chance to get the Kenyan-born, Socialist Nazi Obama out of office : P

OH
IN
VA
NC
FL

....with just those you put the GOP candidate at 265.  Pour a ton of resources into a state like Colorado that can be very fickle... and there you go.  274-264 GOP. 

[Bull Moose Base]

Pain and suffering.  They're hoping for it.

[Derek]

Obama being reelected violates the 8th amendment.

[ConservativeIllini]

I think the election (assuming a close one) comes down to CO.  I don't think Indiana will go blue again, and Florida I don't see going blue due to the health care bill.  Nate Silver at 538.com wrote about that around a week ago, discussing how unpopular the health bill was with seniors, and that he shouldn't count on winning Florida in 2012.

So the next few are NC, VA, OH, all states which the Republican candidate must win to have a chance.  North Carolina will probably go red again, which brings us down to VA, which in my opinion swung heavily for the quite liberal Obama, but now is disapproving in stronger numbers. 

Ohio and Colorado will be the 2 bellwethers for determining who is president come 1/20/2013, assuming there is a close election. 

[justW353]

Obama being reelected violates the 8th amendment.

You are not clever.  Still, no one here takes you seriously, so I won't.

[DS0816]

Oh the GOP will easily win Indiana and North Carolina next time and even FL and VA.  That would put them at 240 plus the 8 from the electoral map change.  I say it comes down to Ohio at the very worst for the GOP.  The GOP must focus on school choice, repealing the healthcare bill, a new tax system, and most important is the lack of government intervention in our lives.

Can you give us a map?

[Vepres]

Colorado would go GOP in 2012 if there's a viable choice

Yeah, it really depends on the candidate. I think Romney would stand a good chance, but Huckabee would be slaughtered.

[Хahar 🤔]

Scott Brown!