IL: Public Policy Polling: Brady (R) Leads Quinn (D) by 10%

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

New Poll: Illinois Governor by Public Policy Polling on 2010-04-07

Summary: D: 33%, R: 43%, I: 0%, U: 24%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

Q3 The candidates for Governor are Republican

Bill Brady and Democrat Pat Quinn. If the

election was today, who would you vote for? If

Bill Brady, press 1. If Pat Quinn, press 2. If

you’re undecided, press 3.

Brady .............................................................. 43%

Quinn .............................................................. 33%

Undecided....................................................... 24%

[Associate Justice PiT]

     I know Rasmussen has been showing promising numbers for the GOP everywhere, but Brady having a 10% lead in a PPP poll is pretty surprising.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

     I know Rasmussen has been showing promising numbers for the GOP everywhere, but Brady having a 10% lead in a PPP poll is pretty surprising.

There was a divisive primary where Hynes nuked Quinn in the closing days. I think Quinn is damaged beyond repair at this point. There is some people bleating on the left that "Illinois will never elect a conservative Republican Governor!". Just like NJ wouldn't elected Christie, Mass wouldn't elect Brown, etc. etc. They're putting their heads in the sand just like the Republicans did in the last couple cycles.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

There was a divisive primary where Hynes nuked Quinn in the closing days. I think Quinn is damaged beyond repair at this point. There is some people bleating on the left that "Illinois will never elect a conservative Republican Governor!". Just like NJ wouldn't elected Christie, Mass wouldn't elect Brown, etc. etc. They're putting their heads in the sand just like the Republicans did in the last couple cycles.
[/quote]

True Quinn is having a rough go of it at this point due to the republicans don't want to coorperate with him on budgetary matters and raise the income tax one percentage point for public school funding.

But when Brady comes out and wants a regression of the minimum wage laws and wants to repeal the city of chicago gun rights laws, women will come out decisive against Brady and come out to support Shela Simon and Quinn.  Quinn knew he had a women's gap and that's why JBaar Topinka did so well, Simon is a net plus next to Garrett, his secondary choice.

And don't forget the Kos poll had Quinn up 10 as well, we will just have to see if Brady is going to maintain this lead, so far, all we know is that he is able to jump into the lead but maintaining it is diffificut.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

The "people will come out to vote against my opponent" strategy is a losing one.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Previously, the GOP governors that have been elected in Illinois have had served statewide elected offices than Brady.  Attorney General or Secretary of State. Brady's name recognition is very low in urban areas outside of his congressional seat. Jim Ryan was the person to beat, having said that Brady should do better than originally had thought and he may be the frontrunner at this point, but incumbancy is powerful, and having had no corruption with Rezko, Quinn should be in position to win in November.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

I don't see Brady winning it.  The Democrats may be divided right now, but by November they'll unify, and I see Quinn winning it.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

That's what I've been saying he has no recognition besides downstate and Glenn Poshard had the same problem and lost.

[muon2]

I don't see Brady winning it.  The Democrats may be divided right now, but by November they'll unify, and I see Quinn winning it.

The issue is not division but lack of motivation. Quinn has big negatives due to actions he took in his first year, and the budget problem is unlikely to be resolved this year. It's not clear what the Dems will do to get the vote out in the fall.

That's what I've been saying he has no recognition besides downstate and Glenn Poshard had the same problem and lost.

Name recognition for Brady is not the issue at this point. The problem is Quinn's name recognition, and it is negative. George Ryan did not have large negatives in 1998, so unfamiliarity with Poshard hurt him in Chicagoland.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Well, passing an income tax increase for the public schools is one issue where he can start from. Instead of going for the large tax increase that was unpopular he went for public school funding.

George Ryan was from Kankakee and was moderate on social issues such as gun control and the death penalty as well, he wasn't a far right conservative either.  Dupage county and Kankakee are where most GOP candidates were from, not from Bloomingdale, where Kankakee it is more like a collar county suburb more than anything.

Brady may very well win this but it is hard to believe that Quinn's favorables will stay at 25%.

[Vepres]

     I know Rasmussen has been showing promising numbers for the GOP everywhere, but Brady having a 10% lead in a PPP poll is pretty surprising.

There was a divisive primary where Hynes nuked Quinn in the closing days. I think Quinn is damaged beyond repair at this point. There is some people bleating on the left that "Illinois will never elect a conservative Republican Governor!". Just like NJ wouldn't elected Christie, Mass wouldn't elect Brown, etc. etc. They're putting their heads in the sand just like the Republicans did in the last couple cycles.

QFT

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Hynes clearly was the better choice.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yes, the establishment Dems rallied behind Quinn's aid in the primary before they saw that he was a liability in the general. It was a rush to judgement on the party of party officials, but not having Jim Ryan in the race this is truely a tossup.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

The only way you can seriously convince yourself into thinking that Quinn has the edge here is by assuming that Illinois is just so Democratic that it trumps all of the following:

• The likelihood that 2010 will be more Republican than average (and possibly significantly so)
• The fact that the previous Democratic governor went to jail and seems all too content to be a constant presence in the media (I mean, seriously, Celebrity Apprentice? WTF)
• The fact that Illinois is suffering under severe budgetary problems during a Democratic administration
• The whole of the Lieutenant Governor fiasco, from embarrassing start to smoke-filled-room conclusion (Simon, lol)
• The fact that if this was any other state besides Illinois, it'd be inconceivable how a race like this would turn out in the Democrats' favor.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think Quinn can still win this race between now and nov which will cause his popularity to go beyond the 25% that he has now.

Unemployment wil likely go down between now and November and the small tax increase to save public schools will likely not have the same negative effect on voters that the tax increase that he proposed last year to fix to budgetary gap.

If his approvals are the same in November, then I say he loses, but I don't think that the small tax increase that Quinn proposes will trump the issue that Brady wants to repeal the minimum wage to where it was before less than eight dollars an hour, that is too extreme.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

The raw numbers of unemployment do not matter when it comes to the ballot box. What matters is the public perception of the economy, and whether or not the are hopeful that things are getting better.

That perception is a lot harder to turn around, especially given the length of the downturn thus far. Few people are going to be excited by the rallying cry of "Unemployment is only 9 percent now!"

And even if things do turn around, they won't turn around enough to undo all the tax hikes and budget gimmicks pushed through by state legislatures all around the country, nevermind in big states like Illinois. That's what people are really upset about, and what people will vote based on. Few people seriously think Quinn is the reason they don't have a job.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The GOP will be movitivated as much as Dems in this race since it is a tossup now than lean Democratic. 

The Dems that hold most statewide elected offices are having little trouble holding onto their positions, and the GOP not having credible challengers down the ticket except for JB Topinka will help get their voters to the polls in helping out Quinn.

Two polls have only showed Brady with the lead, multiple polls before the primary showed Quinn ahead despite the budgetary problems, I am willing to wait and see if this lead holds up.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The only way you can seriously convince yourself into thinking that Quinn has the edge here is by assuming that Illinois is just so Democratic that it trumps all of the following:

• The likelihood that 2010 will be more Republican than average (and possibly significantly so)
• The fact that the previous Democratic governor went to jail and seems all too content to be a constant presence in the media (I mean, seriously, Celebrity Apprentice? WTF)
• The fact that Illinois is suffering under severe budgetary problems during a Democratic administration
• The whole of the Lieutenant Governor fiasco, from embarrassing start to smoke-filled-room conclusion (Simon, lol)
• The fact that if this was any other state besides Illinois, it'd be inconceivable how a race like this would turn out in the Democrats' favor.

Of course you also have to throw in that they nominated a right winger from downstate into the mix there. There were far better candidates in the primary.

Still that doesn't mean Quinn isn't in serious danger of course. Brady probably has a far better chance than Kirk.

[fezzyfestoon]

Brady
Quinn

How often does that happen?

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

The only way you can seriously convince yourself into thinking that Quinn has the edge here is by assuming that Illinois is just so Democratic that it trumps all of the following:

• The likelihood that 2010 will be more Republican than average (and possibly significantly so)
• The fact that the previous Democratic governor went to jail and seems all too content to be a constant presence in the media (I mean, seriously, Celebrity Apprentice? WTF)
• The fact that Illinois is suffering under severe budgetary problems during a Democratic administration
• The whole of the Lieutenant Governor fiasco, from embarrassing start to smoke-filled-room conclusion (Simon, lol)
• The fact that if this was any other state besides Illinois, it'd be inconceivable how a race like this would turn out in the Democrats' favor.

He overcomes 2 and 3, at least.  The Democrats also rallied around getting Blagojevich out of office and did a good job distancing themselves from him.

Look at Michigan - our economy was in the crapper and we reelected Granholm.