What about the Obama loses states thread?
It already exists. People there suggest such things as "Indiana was a fluke", "North Carolina is still a Southern state". "Virginia just elected a right-wing Governor who is so far very popular", "Ohio/Pennsylvania/Minnesota/Wisconsin/Michigan/Nevada has a bad economy that allowed Obama to win in 2008 but will damn him in 2012", or "Obama can't count on Hispanic voters in Colorado, Florida, and Nevada as he did in 2012".
To this I find such counterweights as "Indiana is undergoing an R-to-D shift as other Northern states have done, only later than the others", "North Carolina isn't so Southern as you think", "Virginia has too many government employees to remain R, as government employees become Democrats despite their economic condition because they know where their paycheck comes from", "the economy will improve even in the Rust Belt and Obama will get the credit", and "Demographic shifts (meaning more Hispanics) will rescue Obama in Colorado, Florida, and Nevada", or "Right-wing Republicans won't be so popular in Virginia in 2012 as they were popular in 2009".
I hope that I show the wisdom to not vote in this poll. But I can give my explanations of why I picked the states that I did:
1. Missouri was indeed close -- so close that nobody knew how the state would go for a couple of weeks after the election. A shift of a few votes from Ralph Nader (votes that weren't going to John McCain under any circumstances) to Barack Obama would have given the state to Obama. This is the reverse of the situation in North Carolina, where voters for the libertarian Bob Barr cannibalized right-wing votes that would have otherwise gone for John McCain.
2. Montana. Again, close. Populism can take hold in the Upper Plains, as shown by the Governor. But Obama did
not wage a classic populist campaign, perhaps because of temperament.
3. Georgia. The heavy presence of the military attracts a political cross-section of young blacks and Hispanics, but not whites -- who tend to be more conservative and rural. Georgia was close in 2008 despite a relatively poor showing of Barack Obama among young voters. The war-hero reputation had to make the difference among young white voters, especially those in the military. In 2012 Obama cuts into this vote if young military people find that two things have happened:
(1) the US is out of Afghanistan and Iraq, and
(2) the GOP nominee has no military connection.
Enough? You tell me. The state gave us Jimmy Carter.
4. Arizona. A favorite son is good for about 5% in a shift of votes, or double the margin to 10%. McCain won the state by 8%, which is less than the usual margin that a Favorite Son usually brings. The 2012 election will not feature any GOP nominee for President or Vice-President from Arizona. Demographics of Arizona are fairly similar to those of Colorado and Nevada... but both states seem shaky holds at best for Obama for 2012.
A recent poll showed Obama doing badly in Arizona in approval ratings -- but not much worse than either of the Republican Senators. Would Republican nominees for President and Vice-President not from Arizona do well in Arizona in 2012? Discontent with all sorts of politicians is the reality in Arizona, and whoever builds trust there by 2012 will make the difference.
5. South Carolina. I have seen some strange polls. Statewide and Congressional Republicans have made fools of themselves as they have in no other state, which bodes ill for their survival in the next election. The state has a large African-American population, and it is getting lots of Yankee transplants, like North Carolina and Georgia; the tendency may be stronger in South Carolina than in Georgia because the transplanted Yankees in South Carolina aren't going to only one part of the state (greater Atlanta).
6. Texas. One of the biggest swings in all states in America for the Democrats that did not result in a win. Obama would have to have a similar swing on top of the 2004-2008 swing which can be explained as the reversal of a Favorite Son effect. If Dubya was good for about 10% of the vote in 2000 and 2004, he wasn't on the ballot in 2008.
No way does Obama win this state against Sarah Palin, a good friend of the influential oil industry. Texas has a well-established reputation for conservatism, but it has some large liberal areas -- notably its cities. The demographics are unusual -- large numbers of both blacks and Hispanics, both of which went strongly for Obama. The state last went for a Democratic nominee in 1976 -- Jimmy Carter -- which shows how much has changed since then.
Like North Carolina and even more than Georgia, Texas has lots of transplanted Northerners. But are they the right sorts of Northerners? Transplants from New York and Pennsylvania vote very differently from those from the Dakotas, Nebraska, and Kansas.
7. North Dakota. This would be a tie with South Dakota, except that Senator John Thune (R-SD) is a possible candidate for President. A recent poll showed President Obama's approval at 44%, which would give him about a 50% chance of winning the state under most circumstances. Obama could win the state against the "wrong" GOP nominee, or could he? The state is very stable in its voting, having never voted for any Democratic nominee for President since 1964. Democrats have won statewide elections in North Dakota.
8. South Dakota. Ordinarily I would think South Dakota to be more likely to vote for Obama than would North Dakota because South Dakota is more "urban" (if you call Rapid City and Sioux Falls "urban"). As a possible nominee for President or Vice-President, Senator John Thune could make the difference in this state unless President Obama has a win analogous to Nixon in 1972 (highly unlikely and probably unwelcome) in which Thune loses his own state, and of course in which every state in this group goes to Obama anyway. Need I tell you that the state hasn't voted for a Democratic nominee for President since 1964?
Pbrower you should be more worried about the states that are going to flip GOP than these states.
There are two sides to most questions of prediction. Someone who can't see the other side can set himself up for a nasty surprise. There's plenty of talk about how President Obama can lose Pennsylvania and Michigan -- but there is another side. For those who suggest that Obama will lose Pennsylvania, I can just as easily suggest Texas.
Take a sports analogy as an example. It's October, and you are the mighty 2010 New York Yankees who have just won 110 games in the regular season and have blown away the Tigers and Angels, and you are facing the Chicago Cubs, who have slipped into the World Series through some lucky circumstances after winning 88 games in the regular season.
If you are the Yankees, do you dare discount the Cubs? Do you compare yourselves to the 1927 Yankees? Or do you try to figure out the Chicago Cubs so that you can shut down such strengths as they have?
Right. The Cubs are the only team that can stop you from gloating about the World Series. The Tigers and Angels have no second chances in 2010 after you have defeated them.
There is only one 2010 World Series, and there is only one Presidential election in 2012. So what happens if President Obama loses every state that he won in 2008 that John Kerry lost.... but he wins Texas because in desperation he campaigns heavily there and spends millions on advertising there? Second term.
Strange things can happen in Presidential elections, and they usually do.
Poll
