Clinton-but-not-Obama states, 2012

[pbrower2a]

Please give your reasoning.

[You kip if you want to...]

HELL NO HE CAN'T, to quote John Boehner.

[Bull Moose Base]

No.  Racism.

[DariusNJ]

Nope

[Oakvale]

Only in some kind of landslide scenario.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Very, very unlikely.

[RosettaStoned]

Hell no!

[Oakvale]

Rednecks don't like Obama, really.

[pragmatic liberal]

He actually had decent approval ratings in Kentucky in his honeymoon phase, so if he's winning in a landslide *maybe*. Still really unlikely though.

Tennessee is the Southern state that is hardest to figure out. Historically, it was one of the more moderate, more politically competitive Southern states, like North Carolina and Virginia. It used to elect some fairly liberal Democrats to Congress. And it has several large cities and a decent population of transplants. You'd think that - like NC and VA - it would have been relatively friendly to Democrats the past few years. Yet it now votes indistinguishably from Arkansas and Louisiana.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

No, these states have been trending more Republican for years. Aside from Arkansas, they voted almost as much against Kerry, and Gore didn't win any of them.

[Mr.Phips]

Nope.

[wdecker1]

He may have an outside chance at West Virginia, but I highly doubt that he can win any of these states in 2012 due to the fact that he lost these states by wide margins in 2008.

[Sewer]

None.

[Padfoot]

Obama will win places like Missouri ('92 and '96), Montana and Georgia ('92), or Arizona ('96) before he comes close in any of those states which all swung strongly against the '08 national tide with the exception of Kentucky.

[DS0816]

The majority of the female vote is required for a Democrat to have a chance at winning any of these states.

Of the five mentioned, the 2008 shift of the female vote was the worst in Arkansas. Now this was somthing because, prior to 2008, all prevailing Democratic presidential candidates carried the state in their column. The home state of 42nd president of the United States Bill Clinton, who won his 1992 election while he was its governor, Ark. females gave 2004 George W. Bush a 1-point victory over John Kerry. With the national shift over the 2004/2008 elections being 9.73%—giving Barack Obama the U.S. popular vote by 7.26%—it went completely in the opposite direction, having shifted for the GOP/McCain-and-Sarah Palin ticket by 10 points. I don't think Ark. would've done this had its former First Lady, Hillary Clinton, been the Democratic nominee for 2008. She likely would've won around 60% of the female vote and somewhere, at a minimum, in the mid- to upper-40s with males—a clean victory in flipping the state. These five states would've been on the radar for her, more than likely with first flipping both Arkansas and West Virginia. If her popular vote would've been bigger over McCain—say she won by 11 or 12 points—the other three would've been carried by her.

Focusing on whether President Obama could—a nice word that talks about possibility—win them over for re-election in 2012, I'll present the following.…

Consider:

ARKANSAS — 2004 Bush (50%), Kerry (49%); 2008 McCain (58%), Obama (39%)

—Shift: R+18—

KENTUCKY — 2004 Bush (58%), Kerry (41%); 2008 McCain (56%), Obama (44%)

—Shift: D+5—

LOUISIANA — 2004 Bush (54%), Kerry (45%); 2008 McCain (56%), Obama (42%)

—Shift: R+5—

TENNESSEE — 2004 Bush (56%), Kerry (43%); 2008 McCain (52%), Obama (47%)

—Shift: D+8—

WEST VIRGINIA — 2004 Bush (56%), Kerry (43%); 2008 McCain (55%), Obama (44%)

—Shift: D+2—

For a shot at flipping any of these states: Obama will need to be re-elected winning the popular vote by at least 15 points; better to render his Republican opponent at about 40% of the vote (or slightly under)—like a 2012 version of 1964 Barry Goldwater.

[Conservative frontier]

No.

[Inoljt]

I'd say Obama winning any of these states is just as likely as Massachusetts electing a Republican Senator.

Oh wait....

[HAnnA MArin County]

Obama will win places like Missouri ('92 and '96), Montana and Georgia ('92), or Arizona ('96) before he comes close in any of those states which all swung strongly against the '08 national tide with the exception of Kentucky.

Agreed. Obama stands a good chance of winning Missouri in 2012 (only lost it by less than 4,000 votes/0.13 percent in 2008 and could have legally called for a recount but that was really pointless seeing as how he already won) before he does any of those states in the list. I agree with Padfoot - I think Obama actually has a better chance of winning Montana and Georgia than he does any of those states in the list. Dare I say it, I think he also stands a better chance of winning one, if not both, of the Dakotas than he does at any of those states, assuming 2012 is a good election year for Democrats.

[Democratic Hawk]

Doubt it even if it were to be his Morning in America

[Sasquatch]

That's so funny to think about! Obama winning West Virginia or Arkansas? Too funny.


Hell no, he can't!

[pbrower2a]

The majority of the female vote is required for a Democrat to have a chance at winning any of these states.

Of the five mentioned, the 2008 shift of the female vote was the worst in Arkansas. Now this was somthing because, prior to 2008, all prevailing Democratic presidential candidates carried the state in their column. The home state of 42nd president of the United States Bill Clinton, who won his 1992 election while he was its governor, Ark. females gave 2004 George W. Bush a 1-point victory over John Kerry. With the national shift over the 2004/2008 elections being 9.73%—giving Barack Obama the U.S. popular vote by 7.26%—it went completely in the opposite direction, having shifted for the GOP/McCain-and-Sarah Palin ticket by 10 points. I don't think Ark. would've done this had its former First Lady, Hillary Clinton, been the Democratic nominee for 2008. She likely would've won around 60% of the female vote and somewhere, at a minimum, in the mid- to upper-40s with males—a clean victory in flipping the state. These five states would've been on the radar for her, more than likely with first flipping both Arkansas and West Virginia. If her popular vote would've been bigger over McCain—say she won by 11 or 12 points—the other three would've been carried by her.

Focusing on whether President Obama could—a nice word that talks about possibility—win them over for re-election in 2012, I'll present the following.…

Consider:

ARKANSAS — 2004 Bush (50%), Kerry (49%); 2008 McCain (58%), Obama (39%)

—Shift: R+18—

KENTUCKY — 2004 Bush (58%), Kerry (41%); 2008 McCain (56%), Obama (44%)

—Shift: D+5—

LOUISIANA — 2004 Bush (54%), Kerry (45%); 2008 McCain (56%), Obama (42%)

—Shift: R+5—

TENNESSEE — 2004 Bush (56%), Kerry (43%); 2008 McCain (52%), Obama (47%)

—Shift: D+8—

WEST VIRGINIA — 2004 Bush (56%), Kerry (43%); 2008 McCain (55%), Obama (44%)

—Shift: D+2—

For a shot at flipping any of these states: Obama will need to be re-elected winning the popular vote by at least 15 points; better to render his Republican opponent at about 40% of the vote (or slightly under)—like a 2012 version of 1964 Barry Goldwater.

Obama may have maxed out in the Blue Firewall. His 10%+ margins could be repeated in eighteen states and DC, but I can't see him gaining much in them. I can imagine him going over 10% in Iowa and New Hampshire in 2012, but that wouldn't take much. I can't see him trying to pile on percentages in California or New York when states like Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida decide the election.

I think that he has a better chance of picking up Texas than any of these states.  Texas has a large Hispanic population that these states don't have. Of course, Georgia and Missouri both go to him before any of these states do. Missouri was on the margin in 2008; military concerns likely decide Georgia, which has some large Army and Air Force bases.

One thing worth noting: Kentucky and West Virginia are much "whiter" than Arkansas, Louisiana, or Tennessee. Kentucky and West Virginia depend significantly upon coal, and coal magnates Massey and Blankenship almost certainly put out the message that Obama was "an enemy of Coal".  Might that work in 2012? That depends on how the United Mine Workers respond. 

[Bo]

Very small chance in winning WV, no chance at winning the rest.

[Derek]

In 1992 and 1996 Clinton was from the south and could at least be associated with what was left of the southern democrats. Now the Republicans represent what the Democrats used to in south during the days of Goldwater and Wallace. Unless Obama can convince southern conservatives that he is pro-guns, pro-life, tough on terror, against gay marriage, and repeals the health care bill, I say he's better off campaigning in Kansas or Wyoming lol.