PPP: Romney leads GOP field by single digits in both IL and PA

[Mr. Morden]

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/04/romney-up-in-illinois-and-pennsylvania.html

Illinois:
Romney 34%
Huckabee 28%
Palin 24%

Pennsylvania:
Romney 31%
Huckabee 27%
Palin 27%

Romney's base continues to be the olds:

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[Bull Moose Base]

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/04/romney-up-in-illinois-and-pennsylvania.html

Illinois:
Romney 34%
Huckabee 28%
Palin 24%

Pennsylvania:
Romney 31%
Huckabee 27%
Palin 27%

Romney's base continues to be the olds:

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The CW is that healthcare reform is least popular among the elderly since they already have socialized healthcare and fear reform will mess with it (a variation on Massachusetts voters who were cold on reform as redundant to what they already have).  You'd think if Romney can't wriggle his way out of being tied to ObamaCare, his support will soften among the old folks now keeping him atop the heap.

[Progressive]

Take this "lead" with a grain of salt. One can argue that Palin and Huckabee are splitting votes.

[Bull Moose Base]

Take this "lead" with a grain of salt. One can argue that Palin and Huckabee are splitting votes.

I would have assumed that but a poll just in Iowa from a month or two ago tested for scenarios with Huckabee or Palin sitting out as well as the 3-way race.  I think Morden noticed that counter to expectation, Romney was the main beneficiary of either Huckabee or Palin skipping the race.  Not sure why or if that pattern would extend out of Iowa.

Also this poll shows Romney dominant among moderates.  I doubt he'd do it as long as he were the frontrunner, but I'd say if Romney starts to get sunk from the Right like Crist, I could see him borrowing Crist's move and embracing the moderate label.  Crist has gone so far as to suggest Rubio's supporters are largely insane.  For Romney, reports have already emerged that his team considers his attempt to reinvent himself as a social conservative in 2008 to be a mistake and he more or less plans to write off the South.  If he hits a wall wooing conservatives, he may calculate he has a better chance of smearing more conservative opponents among moderates.  Crist of course didn't try this until he was already desperate.

[ej2mm15]

[Bull Moose Base]

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/04/romney-up-in-illinois-and-pennsylvania.html

Illinois:
Romney 34%
Huckabee 28%
Palin 24%

Pennsylvania:
Romney 31%
Huckabee 27%
Palin 27%

Romney's base continues to be the olds:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

The CW is that healthcare reform is least popular among the elderly since they already have socialized healthcare and fear reform will mess with it (a variation on Massachusetts voters who were cold on reform as redundant to what they already have).  You'd think if Romney can't wriggle his way out of being tied to ObamaCare, his support will soften among the old folks now keeping him atop the heap.

Is it a sign of insanity to reply to myself?  I'm doing so to argue against my previous argument in homage to Romney.  If you assume a good deal of elderly wariness of healthcare reform is pocketbook, Romney could probably easily get away with crafting whatever message they want to hear and minimizing the damage.  I'd also intuit the elderly are even more inclined to follow name recognition than other demos.  Maybe that's not true, but it fits nicely with my stereotype of them as not liking anything new. I'd say Romney's strength with the elderly is stable.

Things that, some combo of which, I could see tripping up Romney are:

1. Palin and Huckabee not running, freeing up oxygen for a new figure more competitive among moderates than they are.

2. GOP/FOX messaging increasingly hostile to the mandate.

3. An accelerated recovery that depresses voter turnout among moderates, and makes the nominee a probable lamb anyway.

[California8429]

without palin in the race (which will probably happen unless there is some huge change and she is loved by 2011) the conservative of the race (huckabee is 50-50 to do it or not) will probably win the area, though I'm surprised his weekness in Illinios...PA and OH i understand, but Illinios

[Lief 🗽]

without palin in the race (which will probably happen unless there is some huge change and she is loved by 2011) the conservative of the race (huckabee is 50-50 to do it or not) will probably win the area, though I'm surprised his weekness in Illinios...PA and OH i understand, but Illinios

She's already loved. 10,000 people came to that joint rally she did with Michelle Bachmann. Them's Obamaesque numbers.

[Mr. Morden]

I'd also intuit the elderly are even more inclined to follow name recognition than other demos.  Maybe that's not true, but it fits nicely with my stereotype of them as not liking anything new. I'd say Romney's strength with the elderly is stable.

I don't think it's as much name recognition as it is experience and perceived competence.  I could imagine olds, for example, going with Daniels if he managed to become a serious contender.  That is, of course, contingent on Daniels actually running.

Also, keep in mind that while olds are the most socially conservative age group in the general population, it's slightly more complicated when you restrict yourself to GOP primary voters.  The olds in the GOP include people who were around back when folks like Nelson Rockefeller were in the party.  That's why I'm not at all surprised that they're not so keen on Huckabee and Palin.  Huckabee and Palin are not your grandpa's GOP.

[Bull Moose Base]

I'd also intuit the elderly are even more inclined to follow name recognition than other demos.  Maybe that's not true, but it fits nicely with my stereotype of them as not liking anything new. I'd say Romney's strength with the elderly is stable.

I don't think it's as much name recognition as it is experience and perceived competence.  I could imagine olds, for example, going with Daniels if he managed to become a serious contender.  That is, of course, contingent on Daniels actually running.

Also, keep in mind that while olds are the most socially conservative age group in the general population, it's slightly more complicated when you restrict yourself to GOP primary voters.  The olds in the GOP include people who were around back when folks like Nelson Rockefeller were in the party.  That's why I'm not at all surprised that they're not so keen on Huckabee and Palin.  Huckabee and Palin are not your grandpa's GOP.

That sounds right.  The centenarians may even see Daniels in debates and think Calvin Coolidge just changed his name to get around term limits.  (They're mistaken on a few counts.)

Conversely, younger Republicans may be excited about something new and shiny, and might be dismissive of experience.  Maybe Rubio could capture their imagination as the straight, conservative Ricky Martin who rebuffed Obama's attempt to hug him.  (They too are mistaken.  Martin is Puerto Rican.)

[Torie]

I suspect Palin and Huckabee voters tend to be quite different, with Palin types more in tune with the Tea Partiers, and Huck's voters religious, socially conservative, and economically moderate, with a protectionist streak. Mittens gets the upscale Republicans, who focus on fiscal issues.

[California8429]

I suspect Palin and Huckabee voters tend to be quite different, with Palin types more in tune with the Tea Partiers, and Hucks voters religious, socially conservative, and economically moderate, with a protectionist streak. Mittens gets the upscale Republicans, who focus on fiscal issues.

but when it comes down to romney vs some conservative. they will unite against romney and that's enough of the block to make sure he loses. early in the campaign they won't be voting for the same guy

[Torie]

I suspect Palin and Huckabee voters tend to be quite different, with Palin types more in tune with the Tea Partiers, and Hucks voters religious, socially conservative, and economically moderate, with a protectionist streak. Mittens gets the upscale Republicans, who focus on fiscal issues.

but when it comes down to romney vs some conservative. they will unite against romney and that's enough of the block to make sure he loses. early in the campaign they won't be voting for the same guy

No, I think some Palin voters would prefer Romney to Huckabee, because they are more interested in small government, and on that one, Huckabee is the odd man out. That is the point I am trying to make anyway, even if it is wrong.

[California8429]

I suspect Palin and Huckabee voters tend to be quite different, with Palin types more in tune with the Tea Partiers, and Hucks voters religious, socially conservative, and economically moderate, with a protectionist streak. Mittens gets the upscale Republicans, who focus on fiscal issues.

but when it comes down to romney vs some conservative. they will unite against romney and that's enough of the block to make sure he loses. early in the campaign they won't be voting for the same guy

No, I think some Palin voters would prefer Romney to Huckabee, because they are more interested in small government, and on that one, Huckabee is the odd man out. That is the point I am trying to make anyway, even if it is wrong.

I would think they'd be more confortable with huckabee, they aren't all libertarians that are supporting palin, she has a large focused on social issues base that I believe would drive them tothe last standing conservative candidate (i don't think it is huckabee)

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

I suspect Palin and Huckabee voters tend to be quite different, with Palin types more in tune with the Tea Partiers, and Huck's voters religious, socially conservative, and economically moderate, with a protectionist streak. Mittens gets the upscale Republicans, who focus on fiscal issues.

Does that include you?

[Torie]

I suspect Palin and Huckabee voters tend to be quite different, with Palin types more in tune with the Tea Partiers, and Huck's voters religious, socially conservative, and economically moderate, with a protectionist streak. Mittens gets the upscale Republicans, who focus on fiscal issues.

Does that include you?

Sure, I would support Mittens over Palin or Huckabee, but I am not in love with the guy, because I think he tends to be disingenuous, and has this approach to campaigning which reminds me more of a Proctor and Gamble soap commercial more than anything else, as he repeats over and over again his sales jingles: e.g.,  the three legged stool of strong families, strong military, and strong economy, which he must have said three thousand times. Plus he tends to shamelessly gild the lily with his anecdotes, such as that he marched with his dad in the MLK parade in Detroit, which clearly never happened. His somersaults on abortion caused me vertigo.

Hopefully Mittens will do better this time, but I just don't trust him very much.