What Solid Democratic States Are Least Likely To Go Republican And Vice Versa?

[Uncle Albert/Admiral Halsey]

Would anybody be willing to rank them?

[RIP Robert H Bork]

Massachusetts and Utah.

[ej2mm15]

Idaho and Vermont

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

[justW353]

[DS0816]

Would anybody be willing to rank them?

Alaska

Hawaii

Both first voted in 1960. In five decades' time, Alaska's only Democratic presidential vote was for 1964 Lyndon Johnson. Uncommon elections for both. In 1964, it was the one-year aftermath of the assassination of President John Kennedy. And that Barry Goldwater was a disastrous candidate for the time where even Alaska rejected Goldwater. And with 1972 and 1984 Hawaii, it was terrible Democratic candidates, in which even the Aloha State said no George McGovern and Walter Mondale, and it took part in the 49-state routs for re-elections of Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan.

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

Would anybody be willing to rank them?

Alaska

Hawaii

Both first voted in 1960. In five decades' time, Alaska's only Democratic presidential vote was for 1964 Lyndon Johnson. Uncommon elections for both. In 1964, it was the one-year aftermath of the assassination of President John Kennedy. And that Barry Goldwater was a disastrous candidate for the time where even Alaska rejected Goldwater. And with 1972 and 1984 Hawaii, it was terrible Democratic candidates, in which even the Aloha State said no George McGovern and Walter Mondale, and it took part in the 49-state routs for re-elections of Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan.

Polls during 2008 showed Alaska wasn't that solidly GOP until Sarah Palin joined the ticket.

Alaska would flip well before Oklahoma, Idaho, Wyoming, Utah, Kansas, Nebraska, Mississippi, Alabama, and Texas.

[DariusNJ]

least likely R: 1. Vermont (with today's current Republican party).
2-4:California, New York and Massachusetts. All three of those states have large bases of heavily Democratic voters (NYC, Bay Area, etc) Even a poor Democratic candidate would make it a close race in one of these 3 states. (Brown vs Coakley)

least likely D:
1-3: the Mormon Belt (Idaho, Utah, Wyoming)
4-5: Alabama and Mississippi

[HAnnA MArin County]

I'd argue Utah and Rhode Island.

[Franzl]

Massachusetts and Utah.

According to our elections expert Pbrower, Utah would vote Democratic against Huckabee.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Likely scenario each candidate will win with almost 300 ev no more than that this time around.

[Derek]

Likely scenario each candidate will win with almost 300 ev no more than that this time around.

I agree at least not much more than that.

least likely for dems- Utah
least likely for GOP- Hawaii

[rbt48]

Least likely Democratic - Indiana
Least likely Republican - Missouri

:-)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Missouri simply ties NV as the most likely to switch parties during a presidential race. Missouri is still very much a populist state but with traditional leanings like Nevada.

I would say Massachusetts
and the Dakotas.

The Dakotas went against the grain and their favorite son McGovern in a presidential year while Massachusetts voted for their favorite son Sgt Shriver.

[Derek]

Missouri simply ties NV as the most likely to switch parties during a presidential race. Missouri is still very much a populist state but with traditional leanings like Nevada.

I would say Massachusetts
and the Dakotas.

The Dakotas went against the grain and their favorite son McGovern in a presidential year while Massachusetts voted for their favorite son Sgt Shriver.

The Dakotas weren't a reflection of his ideas or policies though.

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

Missouri simply ties NV as the most likely to switch parties during a presidential race. Missouri is still very much a populist state but with traditional leanings like Nevada.

I would say Massachusetts
and the Dakotas.

The Dakotas went against the grain and their favorite son McGovern in a presidential year while Massachusetts voted for their favorite son Sgt Shriver.

Shriver was from Maryland and McGovern was from South Dakota, not "The Dakotas".

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

[The Dakotas went against the grain and their favorite son McGovern in a presidential year while Massachusetts voted for their favorite son Sgt Shriver.
[/quote]

The Dakotas weren't a reflection of his ideas or policies though.
[/quote]

Well, the two have catholic roots and the state of South Dakota have been kind to a fellow Roman Catholic in Tom Daschle

[Derek]

McGovern was McGovern and that was a problem in and of itself. I mean Democrats would've preferred Ted Kennedy but he killed a by driving her into a river. Wallace got shot before the 1972 primaries. He wouldn't have likely been the first choice.

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

Well, the two have catholic roots and the state of South Dakota have been kind to a fellow Roman Catholic in Tom Daschle

The Dakotas are the only states outside the South and Utah that don't have at least a Catholic plurality.

[HAnnA MArin County]

In terms of averaging the margins of victory between the Republican and Democratic presidential candidates, the most Democratic state is the District of Columbia (or Massachusetts if you don't consider DC a state) and the most Republican state is Utah. The map above shows the average margins of victory for the past five presidential elections (1992-2008).

Here are the actual numbers, according to my calculations.

Solidly Democratic States 
1. District of Columbia (D +78.674)
2. Massachusetts (D+ 26.032)
3. Rhode Island (D+ 25.708)
4. New York (D+ 22.966)
5. Hawaii (D+ 21.806)
6. Vermont (D+ 21.006)

Strongly Democratic States
7. Maryland (D+ 16.996)
8. Illinois (D+ 15.844)
9. Connecticut (D+ 14.954)
10. California (D+ 14.414)
11. Delaware (D+ 13.814)
12. Maine (D+ 12.136)
13. New Jersey (D+ 11.656)
14. Washington (D+ 10.762)

Lean Democratic States
15. Michigan (D+ 9.120)
16. Minnesota (D+ 8.780)
17. Oregon (D+ 7.798)
18. Pennsylvania (D+ 7.042)
19. New Mexico (D+ 6.056)
20. Wisconsin (D+ 5.838)
21. Iowa (D+ 5.110)

Barely Democratic States - Battlegrounds
22. New Hampshire (D+ 4.176)
23. Nevada (D+ 2.004)
24. Ohio (D+ 1.432)
25. Missouri (D+ 1.156)
26. Florida (D+ 0.320)

Barely Republican States - Battlegrounds
27. Arkansas (R+ 0.080)
28. Colorado (R+ 0.238)
29. West Virginia (R+ 0.902)
30. Virginia (R+ 3.252)
31. Louisiana (R+ 4.824)
32. Arizona (R+ 4.990)

Lean Republican States
33. Tennessee (R+ 5.228)
34. North Carolina (R+ 6.086)
35. Georgia (R+ 6.814)
36. Indiana (R+ 9.398)
37. Kentucky (R+ 9.408)
38. Montana (R+ 9.668)

Strongly Republican States
39. South Carolina (R+ 11.230)
40. South Dakota (R+ 11.920)
41. Mississippi (R+ 12.766)
42. Texas (R+ 12.872)
43. Alabama (R+ 15.162)
44. North Dakota (R+ 16.484)
45. Kansas (R+ 16.892)

Solidly Republican States
46. Oklahoma (R+ 20.152)
47. Alaska (R+ 20.946)
48. Nebraska (R+ 22.606)
49. Wyoming (R+ 26.132)
50. Idaho (R+ 27.018)
51. Utah (R+ 30.768)

[Derek]

Solid Republican- Utah
                                      Idaho
                                      Wyoming
                                      Alaska
                                      Oklahoma
                                      Alabama
                                      Mississippi
                                      Kansas
                                      South Carolina
                                      Nebraska

Likely Republican- Texas
                                       North Dakota
                                       South Dakota
                                       Tennessee
                                       Kentucky
                                       West Virginia
                                       North Carolina
                                       Georgia
                                       Louisiana
                                       Arkansas
                                       Montana
                                       Arizona
                                       Indiana

Republican Battlegrounds- Florida
                                                     Missouri
                                                     Virginia
                                                     Colorado

Toss Up/Swing States- Ohio
                                               Iowa
                                               Nevada
                                               New Mexico
                                               New Hampshire

Democrat Battlegrounds- Pennsylvania
                                                   Michigan
                                                   Oregon
                                                   Minnesota
                                                   Wisconsin

Likely Democrat- California
                                     Maine
                                     Washington
                                     New Jersey
                                     Delaware
                                     Connecticut
                                     Maryland
                                     
Solid Democrat- Massachusetts
                                    New York
                                    Rhode Island
                                    Vermont
                                    D.C.
                                    Illinois
                                    Hawaii