Bush and Ohio

[Whacker77]

I'll be the first to admit that I'm worried about Ohio.  I think Bush is ahead nationally by about three points.  Unfortunately, the polls in Ohio aren't moving.  There are only two polls that show Bush in the lead, Fox and Rasmussen.  Every other poll has shown Kerry in the lead.  I just can't figure it out.  Bush has acted like it's not a worry, but apparently someone said NBC said Bush's internals show the race as a deadheat.  I just don't know.

[Sam Spade]

Remember what Vorlon always says about publicly released internals. 

[Pollwatch99]

I'll be the first to admit that I'm worried about Ohio.  I think Bush is ahead nationally by about three points.  Unfortunately, the polls in Ohio aren't moving.  There are only two polls that show Bush in the lead, Fox and Rasmussen.  Every other poll has shown Kerry in the lead.  I just can't figure it out.  Bush has acted like it's not a worry, but apparently someone said NBC said Bush's internals show the race as a deadheat.  I just don't know.

UP until tonight Zogby state tracking has Bush leading.  Keep an eye posted for Mason-Dixon( Bush leading in last poll).  I'd guess tonight or tomorrow

[Alcon]

Remember what Vorlon always says about publicly released internals. 

What is that?

[Sam Spade]

Don't trust 'em, essentially.

[Sam Spade]

I've heard about the Mason-Dixon poll on Ohio too.  Should be out sometime tonight or tomorrow as well.

[The Vorlon]

Between now and election day we will get 5 polls a day from every state it will seem.

And 4 of them will be garbage.

We all know who can actually do a poll at the State level.

There are 4 or 5 firms that actually know what they are doing, burn the rest

If it's from a newspaper, a college/University or a media outlet - just burn it without looking.

There will be a zilliion rumors of "internal" numbers - trust me - anything that leaks out is pure spin and more likely to be wrong than right.

Watch the national polls - if either candidate is up a solid and stable 3 or 4% at the end all these state polls don't matter anyway, and if it is really close, bet on who ever "closed the gap" in the last few days.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Between now and election day we will get 5 polls a day from every state it will seem.

And 4 of them will be garbage.

We all know who can actually do a poll at the State level.

There are 4 or 5 firms that actually know what they are doing, burn the rest

If it's from a newspaper, a college/University or a media outlet - just burn it without looking.

There will be a zilliion rumors of "internal" numbers - trust me - anything that leaks out is pure spin and more likely to be wrong than right.

Watch the national polls - if either candidate is up a solid and stable 3 or 4% at the end all these state polls don't matter anyway, and if it is really close, bet on who ever "closed the gap" in the last few days.

Actually Marist is pretty good.

[Pollwatch99]

Between now and election day we will get 5 polls a day from every state it will seem.

And 4 of them will be garbage.

We all know who can actually do a poll at the State level.

There are 4 or 5 firms that actually know what they are doing, burn the rest

If it's from a newspaper, a college/University or a media outlet - just burn it without looking.

There will be a zilliion rumors of "internal" numbers - trust me - anything that leaks out is pure spin and more likely to be wrong than right.

Watch the national polls - if either candidate is up a solid and stable 3 or 4% at the end all these state polls don't matter anyway, and if it is really close, bet on who ever "closed the gap" in the last few days.

With all the noise, even the national polls are hard to follow.  Using RCP poll average which has changed by about 0.4 to now Bush+2.  Essentially, neither candidate really moving since the weekend.  Do you see it the same way or do you see some movement since the weekend?

[dougrhess]

Between now and election day we will get 5 polls a day from every state it will seem.

And 4 of them will be garbage.

We all know who can actually do a poll at the State level.

There are 4 or 5 firms that actually know what they are doing, burn the rest

If it's from a newspaper, a college/University or a media outlet - just burn it without looking.

But what if it's a media outlet using a firm? : )

[Erc]

Of course, if Bush wins FL and WI, then OH doesn't really matter anymore, does it...

[Rococo4]

Of course, if Bush wins FL and WI, then OH doesn't really matter anymore, does it...

kind of.....if he loses OH that puts him at either 258 or 254, dependign on New Hampshire.....Wisconsins 10 doesnt get you to 269 unless he has one more pickup

[TheOldLine]

Of course, if Bush wins FL and WI, then OH doesn't really matter anymore, does it...

kind of.....if he loses OH that puts him at either 258 or 254, dependign on New Hampshire.....Wisconsins 10 doesnt get you to 269 unless he has one more pickup

I think that the original comment is based on the Mason-Dixon/Gallup assumption of NM and IA leaning Bush.

TheOldLine

[AuH2O]

The national PV winner is a HUGE favorite in the EC, so national polls are still the best barometer of who is ahead.

Things only get to be a problem when you have a historically close election, which is exceedingly rare but happened in 2000 of course.

On Ohio... I just don't buy the idea Bush is losing there. He got 50% of the OH vote in 2000, so if he improves his national PV%, when you factor in gay marriage on the ballot, Bush still has a lot of advantages.

That's why Kerry is in such a precarious position despite it being "close." He has to 1) tie or come very close in the PV-- possibly even win it to have a chance and 2) has very few "outs," or ways he can win, in terms of the EC.

[struct310]

Im not worried about Ohio.  Bush will pick up Michigan, and this Im moderately sure of based on the terrible democratic GOTV operations Ive heard going on in Michigan.  Kerry will probably pick up Ohio, but this will be offset by other Bush wins.  And really, again it all comes down to Florida which I believe Bush will win.  Granholm will not deliver for Kerry, even though Ive heard shes popular in Michigan.  Kerry will probably win PA because of Rendell though.

[Alcon]

Im not worried about Ohio.  Bush will pick up Michigan, and this Im moderately sure of based on the terrible democratic GOTV operations Ive heard going on in Michigan.  Kerry will probably pick up Ohio, but this will be offset by other Bush wins.  And really, again it all comes down to Florida which I believe Bush will win.  Granholm will not deliver for Kerry, even though Ive heard shes popular in Michigan.  Kerry will probably win PA because of Rendell though.

Why do you say Bush will take Michigan? All evidence is contrary, unless you count Zogby's daily tracking poll thing.

[HoopsCubs]

The national PV winner is a HUGE favorite in the EC, so national polls are still the best barometer of who is ahead.

Things only get to be a problem when you have a historically close election, which is exceedingly rare but happened in 2000 of course.

On Ohio... I just don't buy the idea Bush is losing there. He got 50% of the OH vote in 2000, so if he improves his national PV%, when you factor in gay marriage on the ballot, Bush still has a lot of advantages.

That's why Kerry is in such a precarious position despite it being "close." He has to 1) tie or come very close in the PV-- possibly even win it to have a chance and 2) has very few "outs," or ways he can win, in terms of the EC.

Kerry does not have to win the PV to win this election.  If he stays within 1% of Bush on the PV, but prevails in OH, WI and MN (all do-able), then he will be President.   The minority vote in several states is going to carry Kerry to victory.   Minority groups in FL, OH, MI, PA and WI are not being adequately sampled in the polls.   On election day, when these groups cast their votes,  I think you are really in for a surprise.

[patrick1]

IMO, Ohio will be won or lost by Bush in the Cincinnati and Columbus suburbs.  Bush dominated in these counties in 2000 and they are the only part of the state that the population is increasing.  If Bush maintains his dominance in these areas he will win.  Key counties for Bush: Delaware County (huge for Bush and tremendous growth) Licking and Fairfield and in Cincy area Butler, Warren, Clermont.

[AuH2O]

The national PV winner is a HUGE favorite in the EC, so national polls are still the best barometer of who is ahead.

Things only get to be a problem when you have a historically close election, which is exceedingly rare but happened in 2000 of course.

On Ohio... I just don't buy the idea Bush is losing there. He got 50% of the OH vote in 2000, so if he improves his national PV%, when you factor in gay marriage on the ballot, Bush still has a lot of advantages.

That's why Kerry is in such a precarious position despite it being "close." He has to 1) tie or come very close in the PV-- possibly even win it to have a chance and 2) has very few "outs," or ways he can win, in terms of the EC.

Kerry does not have to win the PV to win this election.  If he stays within 1% of Bush on the PV, but prevails in OH, WI and MN (all do-able), then he will be President.   The minority vote in several states is going to carry Kerry to victory.   Minority groups in FL, OH, MI, PA and WI are not being adequately sampled in the polls.   On election day, when these groups cast their votes,  I think you are really in for a surprise.

Well,

Kerry is not going to do better with minorities than Gore. Period.

WI and PA have relatively small minority populations.

It's hard to surprise me. Kerry winning OH would classify, but don't get your hopes up, because it isn't going to happen.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

IMO, Ohio will be won or lost by Bush in the Cincinnati and Columbus suburbs.  Bush dominated in these counties in 2000 and they are the only part of the state that the population is increasing.  If Bush maintains his dominance in these areas he will win.  Key counties for Bush: Delaware County (huge for Bush and tremendous growth) Licking and Fairfield and in Cincy area Butler, Warren, Clermont.

Those areas are crucial to Bush; Kerry needs to do better than Gore in the Ohio Valley and also get the vote out in the Cleveland area.

[CARLHAYDEN]

IMO, Ohio will be won or lost by Bush in the Cincinnati and Columbus suburbs.  Bush dominated in these counties in 2000 and they are the only part of the state that the population is increasing.  If Bush maintains his dominance in these areas he will win.  Key counties for Bush: Delaware County (huge for Bush and tremendous growth) Licking and Fairfield and in Cincy area Butler, Warren, Clermont.

Those areas are crucial to Bush; Kerry needs to do better than Gore in the Ohio Valley and also get the vote out in the Cleveland area.

Er, Al,

I realize you're in the UK and a little unfamiliar with the US, but, Gore ran (and lost) in 2000, whereas Kerry is running (and will probably lose) in 2004.

Also, Cuyahoga county (Ohio) is a Democrat stronghold.

[Engineer]

People have been complaining about Bush not visiting Ohio, that he's doomed there.

Let's look at it a diferent way.  Kerry has been expending a lot of time and money in Ohio.  The best it has gotten him is tied, if you average all the polls.  Sure, you'll have polls that show Kerry up by 4 or 5, but you'll have the same number of polls that show Bush up by that margin.  Another trip by Kerry isn't going to help him at this point, he's maxed out his potential there.  Bush is just getting back to Ohio and when Ah-nold arrives (who is popular with both Republicans and Democrats), that will push the election securely back into Bush's side. 

[Filuwaúrdjan]

IMO, Ohio will be won or lost by Bush in the Cincinnati and Columbus suburbs.  Bush dominated in these counties in 2000 and they are the only part of the state that the population is increasing.  If Bush maintains his dominance in these areas he will win.  Key counties for Bush: Delaware County (huge for Bush and tremendous growth) Licking and Fairfield and in Cincy area Butler, Warren, Clermont.

Those areas are crucial to Bush; Kerry needs to do better than Gore in the Ohio Valley and also get the vote out in the Cleveland area.

Also, Cuyahoga county (Ohio) is a Democrat stronghold.

Yesssssss... I said "Get the vote out" indicating that Kerry needs a decent turnout in the Cleveland area

[Mort from NewYawk]

The conventional wisdom of this election has always been the "big three" of Florida, Pennsylvania, and Ohio, but the "Little three" have sure become important.

I quote Vorlon from another thread, and my response.

I believe that with the shift toward Bush in the Upper Midwest, Ohio is no longer the "must win" for Bush that we all thought it was a month ago...........

TWO SCENARIOS IN WHICH KERRY WINS TWO OF "BIG THREE" (PA, FL, OH)

KERRY WINS PA, OH,  BUSH WINS FL  -  Bush needs two of "Little Three" (WI, IA, MN) to win.

KERRY WINS PA, FL,  BUSH WINS OH  -  Bush needs sweep of "Little Three" to win.

Assumptions: NH, ME, NM, OR all go Kerry.

Actually, I believe that a moderate Bush landslide is more likely in the making, but if it's close, the "Little Three" are critical.

[patrick1]

IMO, Ohio will be won or lost by Bush in the Cincinnati and Columbus suburbs.  Bush dominated in these counties in 2000 and they are the only part of the state that the population is increasing.  If Bush maintains his dominance in these areas he will win.  Key counties for Bush: Delaware County (huge for Bush and tremendous growth) Licking and Fairfield and in Cincy area Butler, Warren, Clermont.

These suburban counties came up tremendous for Bush.