Bush and Ohio

[patrick1]

IMO, Ohio will be won or lost by Bush in the Cincinnati and Columbus suburbs.  Bush dominated in these counties in 2000 and they are the only part of the state that the population is increasing.  If Bush maintains his dominance in these areas he will win.  Key counties for Bush: Delaware County (huge for Bush and tremendous growth) Licking and Fairfield and in Cincy area Butler, Warren, Clermont.

These suburban counties came up tremendous for Bush.

Columbus area  county burbs
Delaware- Bush 52,237 (66%) Kerry 26,491 (34%)
Licking- Bush 48,092 (62%) Kerry 29,350 (38%)
Fairfield- Bush 42,057 (63%) Kerry 24,328 (37%)

Cincy area county Burbs
Butler- Bush 106,735 (66%) Kerry 54185 (34%)
Warren- Bush 66,523 (72%) Kerry 25399 (28%)
Clermont Bush 61,694 (71%) Kerry 25,318 (29%) 

Roughly 191,000 difference for Bush in these counties alone

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The WV cock up (I won't start that rant all over again... but... a three year old would have done a better job... etc... etc...) may have hurt Kerry SE Ohio

[JNB]

The WV cock up (I won't start that rant all over again... but... a three year old would have done a better job... etc... etc...) may have hurt Kerry SE Ohio

   Just look up 4 economically devastated counties in Ohio, Fayette, Jackson, Muskingum and Ross, and one could see the where an why Kerry lost Ohio. For whatever reason, union efforts failed. The Dems did well in the urban areas in NE Ohio, won Franklin County(Columbus) by an 8 point margin and held GOP margins down in Hamilton County(Cincinati) but  were no shows in the small cities.

[danwxman]

The Cincy and Columbus burbs decided the election? That is quite possibly the most absurd thing ever. They are all STAUNCH Republican. What decided the election was the upper Ohio valley and the counties around Dayton.

[patrick1]

The Cincy and Columbus burbs decided the election? That is quite possibly the most absurd thing ever. They are all STAUNCH Republican. What decided the election was the upper Ohio valley and the counties around Dayton.

Absurd ahmmm. No.  If turnout was depressed and Kerry made even small inroads  Bush loses.  Bush lost the Upper Ohio Valley.  The counties that I mentioned are staunchy Republican but they also have relatavely large populations. The counties cancelled out a large Kerry victory in Cuyahoga.  Maybe we are just looking at things from different angles.  Take Pennsylvania for instance.  Philadelphia provided  Kerry with a tremendous margin.  Republican dominated area like Lancaster county and rurl areas were not enouh to make up this margin. 

[CARLHAYDEN]

The WV cock up (I won't start that rant all over again... but... a three year old would have done a better job... etc... etc...) may have hurt Kerry SE Ohio

If the Democrats had nominated a 'yeller dog' that dog might have carried West Virginia.

Instead, they nominated Kerry.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The WV cock up (I won't start that rant all over again... but... a three year old would have done a better job... etc... etc...) may have hurt Kerry SE Ohio

If the Democrats had nominated a 'yeller dog' that dog might have carried West Virginia.

Instead, they nominated Kerry.

It was nothing to do with nominating Kerry (he led in WV early on) I can't be bothered to repeat my rant about this... basically his campaign strategists transferred stuff from WV to VA et al in the spring, pissed off the Party Bosses etc. etc. etc.

[CARLHAYDEN]

I never cease to be amazed how posters from the UK have so much more knowledge of American politics than us poor natives.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I never cease to be amazed how posters from the UK have so much more knowledge of American politics than us poor natives.

I didn't say that. Stop being xenophobically paranoid.

[dazzleman]

I was surprised at how strongly Bush carried West Virginia.  I had been hearing earlier in the year that he would carry it narrowly, if at all, due to his lifting of the steel tariffs.

Last time, he carried it narrowly and it was a surprise.  This time, the West Virginia results were in line with other southern states, like Virginia, North Carolina and South Carolina, rather than like the midwest.

I also noticed that Bush significantly increased his margin in Tennessee.  I guess that came partly from not running against their (not so) favorite son this time.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I was surprised at how strongly Bush carried West Virginia.  I had been hearing earlier in the year that he would carry it narrowly, if at all, due to his lifting of the steel tariffs.

Last time, he carried it narrowly and it was a surprise.  This time, the West Virginia results were in line with other southern states, like Virginia, North Carolina and South Carolina, rather than like the midwest.

I have written several rants about how the Kerry campaign ed WV up. Longest one is in the "campaign" forum IIRC.