Silent Hunter's Super Sixty: 2010 UK Election Prediction Contest
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  Silent Hunter's Super Sixty: 2010 UK Election Prediction Contest
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Author Topic: Silent Hunter's Super Sixty: 2010 UK Election Prediction Contest  (Read 2097 times)
Silent Hunter
Junior Chimp
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« on: April 11, 2010, 06:02:15 AM »
« edited: April 11, 2010, 06:48:17 AM by Benn in 2010 »

The task: Predict the party that wins each of the following seats.

Arfon
Basildon South and Thurrock East
Belfast South
Bethnal Green and Bow
Birmingham Hall Green
Blackburn
Blaenau Gwent
Brigg & Goole
Brighton Kemptown
Buckingham
Cardiff North
Carlisle
Ceredigon
Cheadle
Chelmsford
Cleethorpes
Clywd West
Colne Valley
Crawley
Crewe and Nantwich
Croydon Central
Dagenham and Rainham
Derby North
Dover
Eastleigh
Edinburgh North & Leith
Edinburgh South West
Finchley & Golders Green
Guildford
Hammersmith
Harlow
Hove
Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath
Liverpool Wavertree
Luton South
Morley and Outwood
Newport East
North Antrim
North Down
Norwich South
Ochil & South Perthshire
Poplar and Limehouse
Rochdale
Romsey and Southampton North
Rugby
Sheffield Hallam
Solihull
Somerset North East
South Down
Stirling
Stockton South
Stroud
Thurrock
Watford
Waveney
Westmoreland and Lonsdale
Witney
Wyre Forest
Ynys Mon
York Outer

The tie-breaker: The number of votes David Cameron wins in Witney.

The prize: A deep sense of a satisfaction.

The method of entry: Post here.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #1 on: April 11, 2010, 06:43:59 AM »

Plaid Arfon
Con Basildon South and Thurrock East
SDLP Belfast South
Labour Bethnal Green and Bow
Labour Sad Birmingham Hall Green
Labour Blackburn
PV Blaenau Gwent
Con Brigg & Goole
Labour Brighton Kemptown
Speaker Buckingham
Con Cardiff North
Con Sad Carlisle
Plaid Ceredigon
LD Cheadle
Con Chelmsford
Con Cleethorpes
Con Clywd West
Con Colne Valley
Con Crawley
Con Crewe and Nantwich
Con Croydon Central
Labour Dagenham and Rainham
Labour Derby North
Labour Dover
Con!? Eastleigh
Labour Edinburgh North & Leith
Labour Edinburgh South West
Con Finchley & Golders Green
Con Guildford
Labour Hammersmith
Con Harlow
Con Hove
Labour Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath
Labour Liverpool Wavertree
Labour Luton South
Labour Morley and Outwood
Labour Newport East
DUP North Antrim
Lady Sylvia North Down
Labour Norwich South
SNP Ochil & South Perthshire
Con!? Poplar and Limehouse
LD Rochdale
LD Romsey, but it's not called that anymore
Con Rugby
LD Sheffield Hallam
Con Solihull
Con Sad Somerset North East
SDLP South Down
SNP Stirling
Labour Stockton whether you mean North or South, though only the latter makes this not just a free point
Con Stroud
Labour Thurrock
LD Watford
Con Waveney
LD Westmoreland and Lonsdale
Con Witney
Con Wyre Forest
Labour!? Ynys Mon
Con York Outer

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Silent Hunter
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #2 on: April 11, 2010, 06:48:31 AM »

Thanks for the corrections.
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Harry Hayfield
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« Reply #3 on: April 11, 2010, 07:59:13 AM »

Arfon
Basildon South and Thurrock East
Belfast South *
Bethnal Green and Bow
Birmingham Hall Green *
Blackburn *
Blaenau Gwent (Independent HOLD)
Brigg & Goole
Brighton Kemptown
Buckingham
Cardiff North
Carlisle
Ceredigion
Cheadle
Chelmsford
Cleethorpes
Clywd West
Colne Valley
Crawley
Crewe and Nantwich
Croydon Central
Dagenham and Rainham
Derby North
Dover
Eastleigh
Edinburgh North & Leith
Edinburgh South West
Finchley & Golders Green
Guildford
Hammersmith
Harlow
Hove
Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath
Liverpool Wavertree
Luton South *
Morley and Outwood
Newport East
North Antrim *
North Down *
Norwich South
Ochil & South Perthshire (SNP GAIN)
Poplar and Limehouse
Rochdale
Romsey and Southampton North
Rugby
Sheffield Hallam
Solihull *
Somerset North East
South Down *
Stirling
Stockton South
Stroud
Thurrock
Watford
Waveney
Westmorland and Lonsdale
Witney
Wyre Forest *
Ynys Mon *
York Outer
The number of votes David Cameron wins in Witney: 25,750

Key: * (witholding until nominations close), colours (party colours)
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afleitch
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« Reply #4 on: April 11, 2010, 09:04:13 AM »

I won't have a stab at the NI ones yet Tongue

Arfon - Plaid
Basildon South and Thurrock East - Labour
Belfast South
Bethnal Green and Bow - Labour
Birmingham Hall Green - Labour
Blackburn - Labour
Blaenau Gwent - Independent
Brigg & Goole - Conservative
Brighton Kemptown - Conservative
Buckingham - Speaker
Cardiff North - Conservative
Carlisle - Conservative
Ceredigon - Plaid
Cheadle - Lib Dem
Chelmsford - Conservative
Cleethorpes - Cnservative
Clywd West - Conservative
Colne Valley - Conservative
Crawley - Conservative
Crewe and Nantwich - Conservative
Croydon Central - Conservative
Dagenham and Rainham - Labour
Derby North - Conservative
Dover - Conservative
Eastleigh - Lib Dem
Edinburgh North & Leith - Labour
Edinburgh South West - Labour
Finchley & Golders Green - Conservative
Guildford - Conservative
Hammersmith - Conservative
Harlow - Conservative
Hove - Conservative
Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath - Labour
Liverpool Wavertree - Lib Dem
Luton South - Conservative
Morley and Outwood - Labour
Newport East - Labour
North Antrim
North Down
Norwich South - Labour
Ochil & South Perthshire - SNP
Poplar and Limehouse - Conservative
Rochdale - Lib Dem
Romsey and Southampton North - Lib Dem
Rugby - Conservative
Sheffield Hallam - Lib Dem
Solihull - Conservative
Somerset North East - Conservative
South Down
Stirling - Conservative
Stockton South - Conservative
Stroud - Conservative
Thurrock - Conservative
Watford - Lib Dem
Waveney - Conservative
Westmoreland and Lonsdale - Lib Dem
Witney - Conservative
Wyre Forest - Conservative
Ynys Mon - Plaid
York Outer - Conservative

The tie-breaker: 30,000
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JoeBrayson
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« Reply #5 on: April 15, 2010, 07:29:31 AM »
« Edited: April 15, 2010, 10:41:54 AM by JoeBrayson »

Arfon   Plaid (GAIN) from Lab
Basildon South and Thurrock East   Con (GAIN) from Lab
Belfast South   SDLP (HOLD)
Bethnal Green and Bow   Lab (GAIN) from Respect
Birmingham Hall Green   Lab (HOLD)
Blackburn   Lab (HOLD)
Blaenau Gwent   Ind (HOLD)
Brigg & Goole   Con (GAIN) from Lab
Brighton Kemptown   Con (GAIN) from Lab
Buckingham   UKIP (GAIN) from Speaker
Cardiff North   Con (GAIN) from Lab
Carlisle   Lab (HOLD)
Ceredigon   Plaid (GAIN) from LibDem
Cheadle   LibDem (HOLD)
Chelmsford   Con (HOLD)
Cleethorpes   Con (GAIN) from Lab
Clywd West   Con (HOLD)
Colne Valley   Con (GAIN) from Lab
Crawley   Con (GAIN) from Lab
Crewe and Nantwich   Con (GAIN) from Lab
Croydon Central   Con (GAIN) from Lab
Dagenham and Rainham   Lab (HOLD)
Derby North   Lab (HOLD)
Dover   Con (GAIN) from Lab
Eastleigh   LibDem (HOLD)
Edinburgh North & Leith   Lab (HOLD)
Edinburgh South West   Lab (HOLD)
Finchley & Golders Green   Con (GAIN) from Lab
Guildford   Con (HOLD)
Hammersmith   Con (GAIN) from Lab
Harlow   Con (GAIN) from Lab
Hove   Con (GAIN) from Lab
Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath   Lab (HOLD)
Liverpool Wavertree   Lab (HOLD)
Luton South   Lab (HOLD)
Morley and Outwood   Con (GAIN) from Lab
Newport East   Lab (HOLD)
North Antrim   TUV (GAIN) from DUP
North Down   Ind (GAIN) from UUP
Norwich South   Lab (HOLD)
Ochil & South Perthshire   SNP (GAIN) from Lab
Poplar and Limehouse   Lab (HOLD)
Rochdale   LibDem (HOLD)
Romsey and Southampton North   Con (GAIN) from LibDem
Rugby   Con (HOLD)
Sheffield Hallam   LibDem (HOLD)
Solihull   LibDem (GAIN) from Con
Somerset North East   Con (HOLD)
South Down   SDLP (HOLD)
Stirling   Lab (HOLD)
Stockton South   Con (GAIN) from Lab
Stroud   Con (GAIN) from Lab
Thurrock   Lab (HOLD)
Watford   LibDem (GAIN) from Lab
Waveney   Con (HOLD)
Westmoreland and Lonsdale   LibDem (HOLD)
Witney   Con (HOLD)
Wyre Forest   Ind (HOLD)
Ynys Mon   Plaid (GAIN) from Lab
York Outer   LibDem (HOLD)

David Cameron would get around 30000 votes in Witney
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Silent Hunter
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #6 on: May 05, 2010, 03:45:45 PM »

Final reminder about this.
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Verily
Cuivienen
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« Reply #7 on: May 05, 2010, 04:03:31 PM »

Arfon – Plaid
Basildon South and Thurrock East - Con
Belfast South - SDLP
Bethnal Green and Bow - Lab
Birmingham Hall Green - LD
Blackburn - Lab
Blaenau Gwent – Ind/People’s Voice
Brigg & Goole - Con
Brighton Kemptown - Con
Buckingham - Speaker
Cardiff North - Con
Carlisle - Lab
Ceredigon - LD
Cheadle - LD
Chelmsford - LD
Cleethorpes - Con
Clywd West - Con
Colne Valley - Con
Crawley - Con
Crewe and Nantwich - Con
Croydon Central – Con
Dagenham and Rainham - Con
Derby North - LD
Dover - Con
Eastleigh - LD
Edinburgh North & Leith - LD
Edinburgh South West - Con
Finchley & Golders Green - Con
Guildford - LD
Hammersmith - Con
Harlow - Con
Hove - Con
Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath - Lab
Liverpool Wavertree - LD
Luton South - Con
Morley and Outwood - Lab
Newport East - LD
North Antrim - DUP
North Down - Ind
Norwich South - Lab
Ochil & South Perthshire - SNP
Poplar and Limehouse - Con
Rochdale - LD
Romsey and Southampton North - LD
Rugby - Con
Sheffield Hallam - LD
Solihull - LD
Somerset North East - Con
South Down - SDLP
Stirling - SNP
Stockton South - Con
Stroud - Con
Thurrock - Con
Watford - LD
Waveney - Con
Westmoreland and Lonsdale - LD
Witney - Con
Wyre Forest - Con
Ynys Mon - Plaid
York Outer – LD

Cameron wins 31000 votes in Witney.
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Harry Hayfield
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« Reply #8 on: May 06, 2010, 02:05:56 AM »

Updating based on personal opinion
Arfon
Basildon South and Thurrock East
Belfast South (SDLP HOLD)
Bethnal Green and Bow
Birmingham Hall Green
Blackburn
Blaenau Gwent (Independent HOLD)
Brigg & Goole
Brighton Kemptown
Buckingham
Cardiff North
Carlisle
Ceredigion
Cheadle
Chelmsford
Cleethorpes
Clywd West
Colne Valley
Crawley
Crewe and Nantwich
Croydon Central
Dagenham and Rainham
Derby North
Dover
Eastleigh
Edinburgh North & Leith
Edinburgh South West
Finchley & Golders Green
Guildford
Hammersmith
Harlow
Hove
Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath
Liverpool Wavertree
Luton South
Morley and Outwood
Newport East
North Antrim (DUP HOLD)
North Down (Independent HOLD)
Norwich South
Ochil & South Perthshire (SNP GAIN)
Poplar and Limehouse
Rochdale
Romsey and Southampton North
Rugby
Sheffield Hallam
Solihull
Somerset North East
South Down (SDLP HOLD)
Stirling
Stockton South
Stroud
Thurrock
Watford
Waveney
Westmorland and Lonsdale
Witney
Wyre Forest (Independent HOLD)
Ynys Mon
York Outer
The number of votes David Cameron wins in Witney: 29,500
Key: * (witholding until nominations close), colours (party colours)
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Silent Hunter
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #9 on: May 07, 2010, 12:56:37 PM »

OK, results will be updated as I make the count, but feel free to do your own assessments too.

Lewis Trondheim: 45.
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Harry Hayfield
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« Reply #10 on: May 08, 2010, 03:24:38 PM »

OK, results will be updated as I make the count, but feel free to do your own assessments too.

Lewis Trondheim: 45.

Harry Hayfield: 45 (ranked 2nd)
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Silent Hunter
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #11 on: May 08, 2010, 03:57:54 PM »

Verily: 38 (currently 3rd)
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #12 on: May 09, 2010, 04:27:22 AM »

Afleitch: 40
Joe Brayson: 47. Joe Brayson wins. Congrats!
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Silent Hunter
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #13 on: May 09, 2010, 06:07:59 AM »

Congratulations Joe Brayson!
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JoeBrayson
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« Reply #14 on: May 19, 2010, 10:22:18 AM »

Thanks!
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